The best part of March is the madness. The last second game winners. Upsets that completely shred a bracket. The question is never whether or not there will be an upset, but who will do it? and who will they do it to? Since 2012, a team seeded 11th or lower has won 36 of 144 (25%) possible matchups.
11 over 6
2012
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Colorado over UNLV
|
2012
|
North Carolina State over San Diego State
|
2013
|
Minnesota over UCLA
|
2014
|
Dayton over Ohio State
|
2014
|
Tennessee over UMass
|
2015
|
UCLA over SMU
|
2015
|
Dayton over Providence
|
2016
|
Northern Iowa over Texas
|
2016
|
Gonzaga over Seton Hall
|
2016
|
Wichita State over Arizona
|
2017
|
USC over SMU
|
2017
|
Xavier over Maryland
|
2017
|
Rhode Island over Creighton
|
12 over 5
2012
|
VCU over Wichita State
|
2012
|
South Florida over Temple
|
2013
|
Oregon over Oklahoma State
|
2013
|
California over UNLV
|
2013
|
Ole Miss over Wisconsin
|
2014
|
Harvard over Cincinnati
|
2014
|
North Dakota State over Oklahoma
|
2014
|
Stephen F. Austin over VCU
|
2016
|
Yale over Baylor
|
2016
|
Arkansas-Little Rock over Purdue
|
2017
|
Middle Tennessee over Minnesota
|
13 over 4
2012
|
Ohio over Michigan
|
2013
|
LaSalle over Kansas State
|
2016
|
Hawaii over California
|
14 over 3
2013
|
Harvard over New Mexico
|
2014
|
Mercer over Duke
|
2015
|
UAB over Iowa State
|
2015
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Georgia State over Baylor
|
2016
|
Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia
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15 over 2
2012
|
Lehigh over Duke
|
2012
|
Norfolk State over Missouri
|
2013
|
Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown
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2016
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Middle Tennessee over Michigan State.
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Now it's worth noting that a 16 seed has never beaten a top seed. However, a 16 seed has lost by single digits 15 times since the tournament's expansion to 64 teams. One of these years, it is going to happen. As crazy as college basketball has been, this might be the year. So here's a look at seven teams that could pull off the upset. Well technically I have eight, but we will call it seven.
All Bracketology projections are from ESPN's Joe Lunardi
DISCLAIMER: I did not include Middle Tennessee because they were ranked in the top 30. They have pulled upsets the last two seasons, so I don't think it would be that surprising.
1: PENN
Current Bracketology Seed: Penn (N/A)
Penn was not the projected Ivy League champion and they just won their tournament about 20 minutes ago, so they are dancing for the first time since 2007. My guess is they end up as a 14 seed. Ivy League teams tend to pose problems for the first-round opponent, because they play smart, sound basketball and tend to suffocate teams defensively. Penn is more capable of exploding on offense. The Quakers have four players who average double digits; Ryan Betley (14.4 PPG), AJ Brodeur (13.0 PPG), Darnell Foreman (10.4 PPG) and Caleb Wood (10.0). The Quakers are really balanced and have been playing really well as of late.
2: MURRAY STATE (OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE)
Current Bracketology Seed: 13
Murray State comes into the tournament with a record of 26-5. Two of those losses are to potential tournament teams; Auburn and Middle Tennessee. The Racers are led by senior guard Johnathan Stark (21.8 PPG, 46% FG, 41.0 % 3 PT). The Racers also receive 14.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG from Terrell Miller. Jr and 12.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG from Ja Morant. The Racers in general, are a pretty solid shooting team knocking down 48.5 percent of their two-point field goals and 37.9 percent of their three-point attempts. Teams with the ability to shoot as well as Murray State can sometimes cause headaches for teams come March.
3: NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
Current Bracketology Seed: 12
The Aggies are a darn good basketball team that has quite a bit of size. Two of their five losses came at the hands of tournament teams; USC and St. Mary's. The Aggies are a fairly balanced team and match their size with athleticism. The Aggies are led by 6'4 guard Zach Lofton who averages 19.8 PPG and shoots over 45 percent from the field. They also have Jemerrio Jones, who is a walking, talking, breathing double-double. Jones averages 11.0 PPG and 13.2 RPG. Jones has amassed a double-double 19 times this season. The Aggies also have size coming off their bench with 6'10 Johnathan Wilkins who averages just under seven points per game and is a 39 percent three-point shooter. The Aggies are also a defensively sound team, KenPom.com has them ranked as the 14th most efficient defense in the nation. This is a team whose offensive balance and defensive presence could be dangerous.
4: UNC-GREENSBORO (SOCON)
Current Bracketology Seed: 13
The Spartans are dancing for the first time since 2001. They earned that right by defeating East Tennessee State in the Southern Conference championship. The Spartans upset North Carolina State earlier this year and have won six in a row. They are led by junior Francis Alonso who averages 15.6 PPG. They also receive 12.3 PPG from Marvin Smith while 6'10 James Dickey corrals in 8.9 PPG and 8.3 RPG. The Spartans have the 30th most efficient defensive according to KenPom.com but are not particularly a great shooting team. Will their defensive presence be enough to pull off an upset?
5: MARSHALL (CONFERENCE USA)
Current Bracketology Seed: 12
The Herd are an interesting team. They swept Middle Tennessee State this season, but few expected them to win the tournament. But they avoided playing the Blue Raiders and are dancing for the first time since 1985. I am glad they got in because, this is a team that could make some noise. They are led by two players who score 20+ points. John Elmore (22.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the best mid-major players in college basketball and they have CJ Burks (20.5 PPG) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) to compliment him. This is a team that has the talent capable of making a run to the Sweet Sixteen.
6: LOYOLA-CHICAGO (MISSOURI VALLEY)
Current Bracketology Seed: 11
The Ramblers are the most balanced of all the teams on this list. Their balance helped them upset Florida this year and they have the horses to make a deep tournament run. They have five players that average over double figures; Clayton Custer (13.4 PPG), Donte Ingram (11.6 PPG), Marques Townes (11.2 PPG), Aundre Jackson (10.9 PPG) and Cameron Krutwig (10.5 PPG). The Ramblers shoot 50.7 percent from the field, that's the third-best in college basketball and they have the 24th most efficient defense according to KenPom.com. Combatting their offensive balance, smart shooting, and stout defense, they could pose nightmares for whoever they face in the first round. I think this team has the potential to go deeeeeeeep in the tournament.
7: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT LEAGUE)
Current Bracketology Seed: 13
You honestly did not expect me to keep the Jackrabbits off this list did you?. If you've never heard of Mike Daum...A.K.A. The Dauminator, then you are missing out. Daum is the best player in college basketball that you might not know about. This season Daum averaged 23.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Daum also shot 46 percent from the field and 42 percent from three. He's pretty darn good, but he's not all the Jackrabbits have. Freshman guard David Jenkins. Jr. averages 16.1 PPG, he scored 29 points in their conference title game against South Dakota. The Jackrabbits also receive quality contribution from Reed Tellinghausen (12.0 PPG) and Tevin King (9.3 PPG). Daum's ability to take over games coupled with the complimentary pieces they have around him make this team perhaps the most dangerous of all the mid-majors.
So there you go, take these seven teams are going to pull off the upset, so take it to the bank! Actually, maybe not. I'm not as right on these as much as I like to think I am.
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