Projected lineups are from mlb.com
All odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
2017 Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup
1: Mookie Betts (RF)
2: Andrew Benitenidi (LF)
3: Hanley Ramirez (1B)
4: JD Martinez (DH) NEW
5: Rafael Devers (3B)
6: Xander Bogaerts (SS)
7: Jackie Bradley (CF)
8: Christian Vasquez (C)
9: Eduardo Nunez (2B)
Projected Rotation
1: Chris Sale (L)
2: David Price (L)
3: Rick Porcello (R)
4: Drew Pomeranz (L)
5: Stephen Wright (R)
The Red Sox return just about everybody execept their manger, John Farrell. Last year the Red Sox won the AL East. They have three super talented and young outfielders and they added J.D Martinez, who hit .303 with 45 home runs and OBP of .376, both were career bests. Time will tell whether or not Martinez was one year wonder or if he's finally coming to his own at the age of 31.
Last season, Mookie Betts had his worst season (.264 AVG, .344 OBP, 24 HR), but he still had a stellar season finishing with the 7th best WAR rating in the American League, but he had his best defensive season, finishing the season with the third best Defensive WAR Rating. He finished sixth in the AL MVP voting in his worst statistical season, if he plays even slightly better, he could be in the running for 2018 AL MVP.
On the pitching mound, Chris Sale had his best season of his career despite pitching less innings than he did in 2016. Last year, Sale finished the season with an ERA of 2.90 and a FIP (Fielding + Independent Pitching) of 2.45, Sale also struck out 308 batters, 34 more than his previous career best.
David Price was dinged up last year, only making 16 starts while amassing an ERA of 3.38 during those starts. If Price stays healthy, he should return to his 2016 form.
Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young in 2016, but regressed in 2017, surrendering a career high in hits and home runs.
Vegas Projection: 92.5
Prediction: I will take the over on this, The Red Sox didn't lose any key parts, they added JD Martinez and David Price is healthy.
2017 Record: 91-71
Projected Lineup
1: Brett Gardner (LF)
2: Aaron Judge (RF)
3: Greg Bird (1B)
4: Giancarlo Stanton (DH) (NEW)
5: Gary Sanchez (C)
6: Didi Gregorious (SS)
7: Aaron Hicks (CF)
8: Brandon Drury (3B) (NEW)
9: Tyler Wade (2B)
Projected Starters
1:Masahiro Tanaka (R)
2: Luis Severino (R)
3: Sonny Gray (R)
4: CC Sabathia (L)
5: Jordan Montgomery (L)
The Yankees caught fire late in the season. They defeated the Twins in the AL Wild Card Game, overcame a 2-0 deficit to the Indians in the ALDS and nearly defeated the Astros in the ALCS. Last year, Aaron Judge took the league by storm, batting .284 with an OBP of .422 and 52 homers. However, Judge also struck out 208 times, the most in the MLB.
The Yankees have several young talents such as Didi Gregorious (.287, .318 and 25 HR) and Gary Sanchez (.278, .345 and 33 HR). The Yanks also added one of the most dangerous bats in baseball, Giancarlo Stanton who hit 62 home runs with the Marlins in 2017 en route to being named AL MVP. Yankee Stadium is a much better hitter's park than Marlins Stadium is, but Stanton also put up these numbers by playing in a career-best 159 games, however he had missed the end of the previous three seasons.
The Yankees pitching staff might be one of, if not the best in the American League IF it lives up to their potential. Last year, Masahiro Tanaka struggled immensely, surrending an ERA of 4.74 and a FIP of 4.34. Luis Severino came into his own in 2017 and should be expecting to pick up where he left off. Sonny Gray was a solid mid-season get for the Yankees and is a stellar third option in the rotation.
Vegas Projection: 94.5
Prediction: I'm taking the over, I might even if this was set at 98.
2017 Record: 80-82
Projected Lineup
1: Denard Span (DH) (NEW)
2: Kevin Kiermaier (CF)
3: Matt Duffy (3B)
4: Carlos Gomez (RF) (NEW)
5: Brad Miller (2B)
6: Wilson Ramos (C)
7: CJ Cron (1B) (NEW)
8: Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
9: Mallex Smith (LF)
Projected Starters
1: Chris Archer (R)
2: Blake Snell (L)
3: Jake Faria (R)
4: Nathan Eovaldi (R).
The Rays made alot of off-season moves, I'm not sure that any of them were good. They dealt the best player in franchise history, Evan Longoria. They traded, Steven Souza DFA'd Corey Dickerson and let Logan Morrison walk. Kevin Keirmaier (.276, .338, 15 HRS) is their best returning player and who knows he could end up being traded. The Rays did add Denard Span (.279, .329 and 12 HR) and CJ Cron (.248, .305 and 16 HR). So they have that going for them.
On the pitching side of thing, they have Chris Archer for now, but the rest of their rotation is questionable. Blake Snell was not terrible in 2017, but he was not really that good either. Jake Faria was solid in '17, but he had a small sample size.
Vegas Projection: 73.5
Prediction: Under, it looks like the Rays are trying to tank. I would not be the least bit surprised if they finish with the worst record in the AL.
2017 Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup
1: Devon Travis (2B)
2: Josh Donaldson (3B)
3: Justin Smoak (1B)
4: Kendrys Morales (DH)
5: Randal Grichuk (RF) (NEW)
6: Troy Tulowitzki (SS)
7: Russell Martin (C)
8: Curtis Granderson (LF) (NEW)
9: Kevin Pillar (CF)
Projected Starters
1: Marcus Stroman (R)
2: JA Happ (L)
3: Aaron Sanchez (R)
4: Marco Estrada (R)
5: Jaime Garcia (L) (NEW)
The Blue Jays might have been the most underacheiving team in baseball in 2017. The Blue Jays were fresh off back to back ALCS appearances, but they finished 76-86 last year. 2015 AL MVP, Josh Donaldson saw his numbers drop slightly from 2016. Russell Martin had one of the worst years of his career and Troy Tulowitzki was his typical injury prone self. The Blue Jays also saw the decline of Jose Bautista, which led to him no longer be with the Blue Jays, or any team for that matter. It seems like just about everything that could go wrong for the Blue Jays did. The Blue Jays did add Randal Grichuk, but he is coming off the worst season of his career. They also added Curtis Granderson in the outfield, who hit 26 home runs last year, but also finished the season with a batting average of .212 and a WAR of just 1.4, including a -0.3 stint with the Dodgers.
The pitching might be the promising thing for the Blue Jays, Marcus Stroman had a superb season, coralling an ERA of 3.09 and a FIP of 3.90. Nothing great, but also not terrible. J.A Happ also had a respectful season, but Marco Estrada dissapointed. Their closer, Roberto Osuna is still very young (23) and maybe this could be the year he finds consistency.
Vegas Projection: 81.5
Prediction: I'll take the slightly over. 81.5 sounds about right, but it could be a few games higher IF they live up to their potential.
2017 Record: 75-87
Projected Lineup
1: Tim Beckham (3B)
2: Manny Machado (SS)
3: Johnathan Schoop (2B)
4: Adam Jones (CF)
5: Trey Mancini (LF)
6: Chris Davis (1B)
7: Mark Trumbo (DH)
8: Colby Rasmus (RF) (NEW)
9: Chance Sisco (C)
Projected Starters
1: Dylan Bundy (R)
2: Andrew Cashner (R) (NEW)
3: Kevin Gausman (R)
4: Chris Tillman (R)
5: Mike Wright (R)
The Orioles have one of the best players in baseball, Manny Machado, but last year his batting average dipped by over 30 points. Machado is making the move from third base to shortstop and is a free agent after this season. Tim Beckham is coming off his best season in baseball (.278, .328 and 22 HR). Beckham played exceptionally well once he arrived in Baltimore hitting .306 with an OBP of .348. The Orioles need Beckham to return to that form in 2018. The Orioles also added Colby Rasmus from the Rays. Rasmus only played in 37 game last year but hit .281 with a .318 OPB in just 121 at bats. Chance Sisco could be a major wildcard for the Orioles. Sisco hit two home runs in just 18 at bats last year, but he had only 18 at bats, so that is not a large sample size.
The Orioles starters were not good last year. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jiminez and Chris Tillman combined for a record of 39-54 with an ERA of 5.83 and a FIP of 5.32. Fortunately for the Orioles, Jiminez and Miley are both gone. They were replaced with Andrew Cashner and Mike Wright. Cashner comes from the Rangers, where last year he posted an 11-11 record with an ERA of 3.40 and a FIP of 4.61. Wright is expected to be the fifth starter, which shows you how hollow the Orioles rotation is, Wright was used as a middle inning pitcher last year where he boasted a 5.76 ERA.
Vegas Projection: 71.5
Prediction: Under, the talent is there for the over and I wanted to take it, but the pitching is way too much of a question mark.
HOW THEY WILL END UP
1: New York
2: Boston
3: Toronto
4: Baltimore
5: Tampa Bay
I think the top two are pretty obvious, it's just a matter of how they wind up. I think the Yankees are a better team and they've built a lineup that is scary for their ballpark. The Blue Jays feel like a third place team that wins around 80-85 games. I think the Orioles and Rays both end up being terrible, but the Rays are intentionally trying to be terrible and will win the battle of terribleness.
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