It is almost time! My favorite time of the year. The first four-days of March Madness (Thursday and Friday in particular) are my favorite days in all of sports. During this time, I get little to nothing done while there is basketball on and do not expect this year to be any different. With that being said, here are the five games that I'm the most excited for.
#5 South Region- #2 Cincinnati vs. #15 Georgia State
(Friday 1 p.m. on TBS)
The last time Georgia State was in the dance, they upset Baylor thanks to an R.J. Hunter three that led to his father literally falling out of his chair. R.J is not there anymore, but his father Ron is still the head coach at Georgia State and he is great. A major program should hire him immediately. The Panthers went through a rough stretch in February but they've since bounced back and are playing extremely well. They are led by Sun Belt Conference player of the year, D'Marcus Simonds (21.0 PPG).On the flipside, Cincinnati is a Final Four caliber team. They play shutdown defense (ranked 2nd by Ken Pomeroy) and can combat their shutdown defense with streaky offense. The caveat for the Bearcats is that they are going to be without their second-leading scorer, Jacob Evans (12.9 PPG). I believe Cincinnati is a deep and talented enough team to prevail, but they haven't been seeded this high in recent memory, they are without one of, if not their best player and they are a facing a team who has played Cinderella before. I think Cincinnati wins, but this is the most likely 15 over 2 upset.
#4 Midwest Region- #16 Pennsylvania vs. #1 Kansas
(Thursday 1 p.m. on TBS)
This game falls in the same boat. Pennsylvania might be the best 16 seed I can think of in recent memory. I was a bit surprised that they were a 16 seed, I expected them to be a 14 or 15, but the committee is dumb, we know that already. As I mentioned in a previous blog, Ivy League teams are tough because they are smart and fundamentally sound on defense. The Quakers are balanced offensively as well with four players averaging double-digits, Ryan Betley, A.J Brodeur, Darnell Foreman and Caleb Wood.
As for Kansas, this might be Bill Self's worst team he has had there, but it's still a pretty darn good team. Malik Newman was terrific in the Big 12 Tournament and Sylvio De Sousa is coming around, however, they could potentially be without Udoka Azubuike, who sat out the Big 12 Tournament with a knee injury. Kansas is a hot and cold team, they had spurts this season where they could not miss three's, but they also had spans where they could not hit the threes. Kansas has the 13th best three-point offense in the nation, but Penn has the second-best three-point defense in the country. Without Azubuike, Kansas does not have a real dominant presence down low, this is the one 16 seed that does not match-up great for Kansas.
I think Kansas will manage to pull away late and win this game, but Penn will give them a fight and make Jayhawk nation nervous. One of these years, a 1 seed will fall in the first round. I'm not sure it will happen this year, but if it's going to happen this year, Kansas is the prime victim.
#3 West Region-#7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Providence
(Friday 11:15 a.m. CBS)
10 vs. 7 games are typically a lot of fun because there's not a lot of separation between the two teams. Let me begin this by saying that Providence head coach Ed Cooley is the absolute greatest. The man ripped his pants during the Big East Final vs. Villanova, Cooley responded well...cooly, by covering up the rip with towels and continued to coach the game. The man is great. His teams are no slouch either. Providence always seems to be playing their best-come tournament time. This year is no different, Providence beat Xavier in the Big East semi and took Villanova to overtime in the title game. This is a 10 seed that has the potential to make a deep run and the region to do it in.
Texas A&M is a team that many people are saying not to sleep on. I have not watched them much this year, but I can see why people are saying that. The Aggies are a balanced team with four players averaging double figures; Tyler Davis (14.5 PPG), Admon Gilder (12.2 PPG), DJ Hogg (11.3 PPG) and Robert Williams (10.3 PPG). The Aggies certainly have the pieces to make a run.
According to Ken Pom.com, Texas A&M has the 71st best offense, but the 12th best defense while Providence boasts the 105th best offense and 35th best defense. So I expect this game to be played in the 60's. The difference maker could be the fact that neither one of these teams is particularly great at shooting the three-ball, Providence (33.3%) and Texas A&M (32.7%). That's the 253rd and 286th best three-point shooting teams in the nation. The only tournament teams that are worse three-point teams than Alabama and Syracuse. Whoever does not suck the most at shooting the three in this game will most likely win.
#2 South Region-#8 Creighton vs. #9 Kansas State
(Friday 5:50 p.m. TNT)
I am just going to call this the Marcus Foster game. For those of you that are aware, Creighton guard Marcus Foster began his career at Kansas State. Foster was kicked off the team by Bruce Weber and wound up at Creighton. Foster has been pretty darn good for the Blue Jays this season, averaging 20.3 PPG and shooting over 42-percent from three and 49-percent from the field. I'm not sure if Foster will go into this game with revenge on his mind, I tend to doubt it, but you never know. Either way, he's capable of dropping 20 or 30. The Blue Jays also received solid guard play from Khyri Thomas, who averages over 15 points a game. The major problem for Creighton is that they are not real big outside of Jacob Epperson, they have played the second half of the season without Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG) who tore his ACL in January.
Kansas State has exceeded my expectations this year and saved Bruce Weber's job. They have also been dinged up this season, but they've had players step up when called upon. Kansas State was without arguably their two best players; Dean Wade and Barry Brown during their loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. It sounds like both Wade and Brown are on track to play Friday. If they are both able to go, that could be enough to get the Wildcats past Creighton given Wade's ability to take over the game with the three-ball.
If Wade struggles to shoot the three well, then Kansas State will in general. The Wildcats shot just 34.4 percent from beyond the arc, that's 204th in the nation. Creighton is a much better three-point team, hitting 37.6 percent of their threes, 53rd best. According to Ken Pomeroy, Kansas State has the 41st most efficient defense, while Creighton has the 61st most efficient. On the offensive side, Creighton is ranked 22nd while Kansas State is ranked 60th.
This matchup should be a ton of fun.
#1 East Region: #4 Wichita State vs #13 Marshall
(Friday 12:30 p.m. TNT)
Do not sleep on Marshall. I repeat. Do not sleep on Marshall. The Thundering Herd are rolling into the tournament for the first time since 1985 and they have the weapons to make a deep run. They are led by do-all guard John Elmore who averages 22.8 PPG. Elmore is not the only player Marshall has, C.J. Burks, who averages 20.5 PPG, but struggled in the Conference-USA title game against Western Kentucky. The Herd also have six-foot-nine-inch Ajdin Penava who averages 15.5 PPG and 8.6 RPG.
This is not your grandpa's Wichita State team, the Shockers are an offensive heavy team, but not so much on the defensive side. They are led by Landry Shamet (15.0 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Shaquille Morris (14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG). To combat Penava's rebounding presence, the Shockers have six-foot-seven inch Rashard Kelly who averages 7.5 RPG. This is a team that many people have making a deep run, but I'm not as sold on them as many people are.
If you like points, this might be your favorite game of the entire tournament. Marshall averages 84.3 PPG (12th) while Wichita State averages 83.0 PPG (19th). Wichita State has the fifth most efficient offense according to Ken Pomeroy, Marshall has the 95th most efficient offense. Wichita State shoots the three-ball remarkably better than Marshall (37th to 142nd). I do not expect this game to involve much defense, Wichita State has the 140th best scoring defense, Marshall has the 318th best. Ken Pomeroy has Wichita State ranked as the 107th most efficient defense, Marshall is ranked 142nd.
This has the makings of a game that could end up in the 90's and I love it.
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