(Photo courtesy of Forbes.com)
The chase originally consisted of 10 drivers. Those drivers then battled it out in a 10 race "playoff format". It was simple, whoever had the most points at the end of those 10 races was the champion. It created some excitement, especially in the first year, but there were also years where you had a pretty good feeling of who the champion was going to be coming into Homestead.
NASCAR then added two more drivers to the chase in 2007, bringing the total to the top 12 drivers in the points. Then in 2011, when NASCAR reverted to a much simpler points system that didn't require a math degree to figure out, they changed the format again. The 2011 format locked in the top 10 drivers in points as well as the next two drivers in points with a win. This put more of an emphasis on winning.
However, NASCAR completely shook it up in 2014 with what I think is the greatest thing they've done in a long time. The playoff. NASCAR decided that winning a regular season race would lock you into the playoffs as long as you were in the top 30 in points. The field was expanded to 16 drivers and four drivers were eliminated in three race intervals to set up a final four for the championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The new format has provided tons of excitement and has given NASCAR the playoff feeling it had long been striving for. But I've always wondered how things would have been if NASCAR would have been forward-thinking enough to establish the playoff system in 2004.
So, I thought it would be cool to go full-nerd mode and find out for myself in this first of a 10-part series to determine who the champions from 2004 through 2013 would have been under a playoff format.
For the points system, I relied on the 2011-2016 points system. In that system, a driver received 47 points for winning, 42 points for second, 41 for third and so on. If the driver who won the race also led the most laps then he received 48 points. Each driver who led a lap received one bonus point and if a driver led the most laps then he received two bonus points. Unfortunately, I could not find a way to factor in stage points, but I did give a driver five playoff points for each regular-season victory and the regular-season champion also received an additional 15 playoff points, much like they do now.
OK, enough with the nerdy and long explanation. Let's break down the year that was 2004.
Actual Chase Field-Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, Elliott Sadler, Jeremy Mayfield and Ryan Newman.
All 10 drivers who made the chase in 2004 had at least one win, so they all would have qualified for the playoffs. Two drivers; Greg Biffle and Rusty Wallace would have also punched their tickets with wins at Michigan and Martinsville respectively while Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, and Jamie McMurray would have qualified based on points. Jarrett edged Kasey Kahne by just two points to take the final playoff berth.
Jeff Gordon was the regular season champion, so he gained 15 additional playoff points bringing his playoff point total to 40. Nobody else had more than 20.
Round of 16-Kurt Busch won at New Hampshire to advance, Ryan Newman punched his ticket to the round of 12 with a win at Dover and Dale Earnhardt. Jr did what he usually did at the time; win at Talladega. Talladega was the cutoff race and Tony Stewart, Jeremy Mayfield, Greg Biffle, and Bobby Labonte came into the race below the cutoff line. Labonte and Mayfield got collected in the chaos of Talladega and ruined their chances of advancing. Biffle also struggled and finished 28th, leading to his premature exit from the playoffs. Stewart came in clutch with a sixth-place finish and narrowly snuck into the round of 12. Elliott Sadler also struggled at 'Dega with a 22nd place finish but Sadler did just enough, edging Rusty Wallace by five points for the final spot.
Advancing to the Round of 12-Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Dale Jarrett, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, and Elliott Sadler
Eliminated after Round of 16-Rusty Wallace, Jeremy Mayfield, Greg Biffle, and Bobby Labonte.
Round of 12-This round began at Kansas where Joe Nemechek stole a victory from the playoff drivers. Jimmie Johnson then swept the other two races at Martinsville and Charlotte to become the only driver to advance via a win. The cutoff race was Martinsville and Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, and Matt Kenseth were all on the outside looking in while Dale Jarrett was in by five points over Kenseth. Newman did everything in his power to advance, finishing third and leading nine laps. Harvick did the same, leading 104 laps and finishing ninth, Martin had a respectable 12th place finish and Kenseth finished 16th but led two laps. Harvick's strong run was not enough to overcome his struggles in the previous two races where he finished 35th and 36th respectively. Harvick still missed the cutline by 45 points. The strong runs by Newman and Martin also proved to be too little, too late as both drivers missed the cutline by four and six points respectively. Kenseth did manage to sneak his way in and booted Dale Jarrett out of the Round of 8. Jarrett was involved in an accident on lap 107, finished 37th and missed the cut by 17 points.
Advancing to the Round of 8-Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, and Elliott Sadler.
Eliminated after Round of 12-Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Dale Jarrett, and Kevin Harvick
Round of 8-This is my favorite round. Win in this one and you're racing for a title. Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt. Jr earned that honor. Johnson won at Atlanta and Darlington while Dale. Jr won at Phoenix. Darlington served as the cutoff race for the round of 8. Johnson and Dale Jr. had already punched their tickets while Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon were sitting comfortably in thanks to some struggles from Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, Matt Kenseth, and Elliott Sadler. Gordon punched his ticket to Homestead with a third-place finish at Darlington. Stewart finished as the first car one lap down in 17th. McMurray finished fourth and led 15 laps, Busch, the actual 2004 champion finished sixth and led nine laps while Kenseth and Sadler struggled and finished 20th and 23rd respectively, dashing their championship chances. In the end, the strong runs by McMurray and Busch were not enough to knock Stewart out and both drivers missed the championship round by 11 and 17 respectively.
Advancing to the Championship 4-Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart.
Eliminated after Round of 8-Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, Matt Kenseth, and Elliott Sadler
Your 2004 Champion would have been?
Jimmie Johnson's first title would have come two years before it actually did. You may remember that in reality, Johnson missed winning the championship in 2004 by just eight points because he could not pass Greg Biffle for the win and that allowed Kurt Busch to win the title. Well, Busch is out of contention in this format, but Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt. Jr are contenders. Dale. Jr. struggled most of the race and was never really a factor, but Stewart, Gordon, and Johnson were. Stewart was the only one of those drivers to lead a lap, but all that mattered was who finished the best. Stewart took the lead from Ryan Newman with four laps to go and appeared to be on his way to his second title in three years, but then Newman wrecked and that brought out a caution. Biffle, Johnson, and Gordon overpowered Stewart on the restart. Biffle took the win while Johnson held off Gordon and Stewart, who finished right behind him in third and fourth, to capture his first championship.
How many championships would Jimmie Johnson have if the playoff format was adopted in 2004? We will find out in this 10-part series.
