I have never tried to hide the fact I am a nerd. It's way too obvious for me to even attempt. I am amused by things that I should not be. At a young age, I was spewing out numbers and stats while my brothers were begging to watch Spongebob instead of listening to Mel Kiper or Mike Mayock break down the draft.
The point is, I love the NFL Draft. Don't ask why, but it's always been one of my favorite things in sports. Since 2005, I have only missed watching two NFL Drafts (2009 and 2013), interestingly enough those have probably been the two worst ones. I like to think those two draft classes sucked because I did not watch.
Some people don't like Mock Drafts, and I can see why, but I am not one of those people. Actually, I am. I don't like Mock Drafts.
I love them
I love them so much that I've been doing my own since 2010, however, mine has a twist.
The picks are completely random.
Why? How? You might ask.
First off, I didn't have many friends, so it was a fun little game I could play that took plenty of time and kept me out of my grandmother's hair so she could read, sew or do other grandmotherly things.
Second off, I have opinions on certain players, whether they are right or not. I have them and they could influence my decisions, for example I am scared of Saquon Barkley, so I might not mock him to the Broncos. If it is completely random, then my opinions don't particularly matter.
Most important of all, mock drafts are tough to predict and they are usually completely wrong anyway. It's impossible to predict what an NFL GM is going to do. Especially when you are just a 13-year old kid, thus I created a "random' mock draft.
Now to the how.
This might sound lame, but when I was little, I used to just write names on an index card and assign them a number and roll a dye until there was only one number remaining. The player attached to that number was the "pick".
However, around 2014 or 2015, I found a website called Random.org. I began using that, and it is fantastic.
You simply just type in a number range and hit the generate button. So now, what I do is create a word document, list a number of players and hit the good ol' generate button until all but one number remains.
Now while this Mock Draft is random, it is still logical. Every player or scenario is given the same amount of odds and each player or scenario makes sense. For example, Washington State Quarterback Luke Falk is not an option for the Browns with the number-one pick because they clearly will not take him there.
This method is by no means perfect, for example, it projected Ndamukong Suh to be taken #1 in 2010 (he went #2) and Jimmy Clausen to be taken by Seattle in the first round (he went in Round Two to Carolina) In 2013, the randomness selected Mike Glennon to be taken in the Top 10 (he fell into the third round), In 2015, the randomness felt that The Bucs should select Marcus Mariota number one and that Randy Gregory was a top ten pick. It's not a perfect system, but it's unique.
It's also worth noting, that trades are a possible scenario, however, the trade scenario has a specific team, and most the time that team has a specific player. Also, what a team gives up in the trade scenario is decided by me based on what I think would be a fair trade according to the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart, a chart which NFL GM's use religiously when making draft day trades. You can view the chart here.
You are probably tired of me going full geek mode, so let's get to the completely random 2018 First Round NFL Mock Draft.
Pick #1: Cleveland Browns
Options: Wyoming QB Josh Allen, USC QB Sam Darnold, Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
What the computer chose: Darnold.
I did not include any position other than QB because I cannot see a scenario where the Browns don't take a signal-caller with the top pick. The Jets earlier off-season trade to move up to number three forced the Browns to take a QB. They can have their choice with the top pick or risk getting their third option with the fourth pick, which they own courtesy of a trade with the Texans. Many non-random mocks project Allen, but I would go with Darnold even if it's not random. I think he's the safest option of the QBs. I'm not sure he can step in Week 1 and be the starter, but I feel that way about the other QBs too.
Pick #2 New York Giants
Options: Trade with the Bills, North Carolina State DE Bradley Chubb, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
What the computer chose: Chubb
I thought this was the least likely of the scenarios, but I still feel it's logical. The Giants won two Super Bowls because they were able to get to the Quarterback. The Giants have two of the best QB's in the league and Dak Prescott in their division. You can never have too many pass-rushers and Chubb has drawn comparisons to Von Miller. I'm not sure those are accurate or fair, but this seems like a pick the Giants could make.
Pick #3 New York Jets
Options: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, Wyoming QB Josh Allen, UCLA QB Josh Rosen.
What the computer chose: Rosen
The Jets are obviously taking a QB. They wouldn't have traded from sixth to third if they weren't. I personally think they will select Mayfield. It sounds like they were thoroughly impressed with him in interviews and he will give them the quarterback they have not had since Broadway Joe. However, Rosen also makes sense. Many people think Rosen will slide and that's a possibility, but I think that he's either the second or third-best QB in the draft. Depending on how you feel about Mayfield. Rosen has a big-strong arm that Jets fans could grow to love.
Pick #4 Cleveland Browns
Options: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, Trade with Bills, Notre Dame OG Quentin Nelson
What the computer chose: Barkley
This is the dream scenario for Browns fans. They get the QB of their choice and the best position player in the draft. However, I honestly think the Browns should take Nelson if he's available. This class is deep with running backs and I just don't see John Dorsey drafting an RB this high and the Browns have a solid combination with Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, however, in this scenario I am wrong. I think Barkley has the potential to be a once-in-a-generation type player. If the Darnold-Barkley combination lives up to it's potential, Browns fans will be elated.
Pick #5 Denver Broncos
Options: Trade with Buffalo, Notre Dame OG Quentin Nelson
What the computer chose: Trade with Buffalo, Bills select Wyoming QB Josh Allen
This was a tough one. I don't think the Broncos will draft a QB, because Keenum is coming off an MVP year and John Elway is too stubborn to admit he whiffed on Paxton Lynch. If Barkley was there, I could see Denver taking him, but he's not. I could also see them taking Chubb, but he's also gone. In this scenario, I find it hard to think the Broncos will do anything but trade down and the Bills are the most likely candidate. In this scenario, the Bills give up their 12th pick and two second-round picks (53rd and 56th) to get their next Jim Kelly, or at least they hope. I'm not sold on Allen and I think he will bust, but his arm-strength appeals to Bills fans and he's used to playing in cold weather.
Pick #6 Indianapolis Colts
Options: Notre Dame OG Quentin Nelson, Ohio State CB Denzel Ward
What the computer chose: Ward
The Colts have the worst roster in the league, but it was tough to determine what was logical for them in this scenario. Like the Broncos, I think they would prefer Barkley or Chubb, but both are gone. The Colts current starting corners are Kenny Moore and Quincy WilsonWard has the potential to be an immediate upgrade.
Pick #7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Options: Florida State S Derwin James, Notre Dame OG Quentin Nelson, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick
What the computer chose: Nelson
I personally don't think Nelson will fall this far, but in this scenario he does and the Bucs get a guy to protect Jameis Winston's in the pocket for the next five years. Tampa has a solid offense, but it did not click last year. Nelson is either the best or second-best player in the draft depending on how you feel about Barkley. The Bucs could choose to bolster their defense, but if they are really sold on Jameis Winston and feel their offense has the potential to be something special, they will take Nelson.
Pick #8 Chicago Bears
Options: Virginia Tech LB Trumaine Edmunds, Georgia LB Roquan Smith
What the computer chose: Smith
Nelson would have been an option if he would have fallen this far, but in this scenario, I feel that the Bears will choose between a pair of Linebackers. I expect them to take Edmunds, but I prefer Smith and the computer did too. Smith was freaky good on a freaky good Georgia defense. He has a high motor and reminds me a lot of Patrick Willis. The Bears have hung their hat on linebackers; Mike Singletary, Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs. In this scenario, they get their new Monster of the Midway.
Pick #9 San Francisco 49ers
Options: Trade with the Dolphins, Virginia Tech LB Trumaine Edmunds, Florida State S Derwin James, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick
What the computer chose: James
Many mocks have the 49ers taking a wide receiver, but I don't have one as an option for two reasons; 1) I don't see any of these wide-outs going in the top 10. 2) I still think the 49ers end up signing Dez Bryant. Given the Rueben Foster situation, I personally think the 49ers will take a linebacker whether it be Edmunds or Smith, but James is logical because Jimmie Ward is entering his fifth year with the 49ers and has failed to live up to his potential and the 49ers recently signed Richard Sherman and could look to build their own "Legion of Boom". Considering Sherman is passed his prime, maybe it could be called L.O.B 2000. WWE fans will understand.
Pick #10 Oakland Raiders
Options: Trade with Cardinals, Trade with Dolphins, Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey, Washington DT Vita Vea, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Virginia Tech LB Trumaine Edmunds.
What the computer chose: Trade with Dolphins, Miami selects Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
As you can see, there are a lot of scenarios I can see the Raiders doing. They need to bolster their defense at just about every position and they could also bolster their pass-protection. In this scenario, Mayfield is sliding and the Raiders capitalize on this. The Raiders and Dolphins flip picks and the Raiders receive a third-rounder. You might ask why a team would trade up just one spot, but it's not that uncommon, the Bears did it last year to ensure they could get Mitch Trubisky. If the Dolphins don't trade up, Arizona might. I personally think Mayfield could be the best QB in this class. He has it all and reminds me of Drew Brees. Adam Gase is supposedly a quarterback guru and this might be one of the best fits for Mayfield.
Pick #11 Oakland Raiders
Options: Washington DT Vita Vea, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Virginia Tech LB Trumaine Edmunds, Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey.
What the computer chose: McGlinchey
I personally think the Raiders will select Edmunds or Fitzpatrick, but in this scenario, they get the second-best offensive lineman in this class. Donald Penn has been a staple left-tackle, but he's really old and the Raiders should look for his replacement to ensure that Derek Carr does not suffer the same fate his brother David did.
Pick #12 Denver Broncos
Options: Virginia Tech LB Trumaine Edmunds, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick
What the computer chose: Edmunds
This is not the same Broncos defense that dominated en-route to a Super Bowl in 2015. That defense is long gone and I don't buy the notion that it's still a Super Bowl-caliber defense. I personally think they would select Fitzpatrick to replace T.J Ward, who they cut last year, but Edmunds would give them a complimentary piece alongside Von Miller and Shane Ray.
Pick #13 Washington Redskins
Options: Washington DT Vita Vea, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama DT Da'Ron Payne
What the computer chose: Fitzpatrick
The Redskins defense is not good outside of Ryan Kerrigan and Josh Norman. They lost Kendall Fuller, Sua Cravens, and Will Compton, so I think they go defense. I personally think Vea is the most logical but the computer feels that Fitzpatrick would be a good fit in a Redskins secondary that consists of D.J Swearinger and Deshazor Everett.
Pick #14 Green Bay Packers
Options: Iowa CB Josh Jackson, Alabama WR Calvin Ridley, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
What the computer chose: Ridley
Last year was proof that the Packers are a bad team with a great quarterback. They were exposed when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they need an upgrade at just about every position. In this scenario, they give Rodgers a weapon after letting Jordy Nelson go. I think Ridley is hands-down the best wideout in the draft and will give Rodgers the type of weapon that even Nelson never was.
Pick #15 Arizona Cardinals
Options: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, Alabama DT Da'Ron Payne, Washington DT Vita Vea, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
What the computer chose: Payne
The Cardinals signed Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon this off-season, so they might not be as apt to draft a signal caller as you might think or maybe they are, but in this scenario, they are not. I could also see them pursuing Larry Fitzgerald's replacement, especially if Ridley is available, but Robert Nkemdiche failed to live up to his expectations and drafting Da'Ron Payne allows them to forget about that.
Pick #16 Baltimore Ravens
Options: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, South Carolina TE Hayden Hurst, Texas OT Connor Williams, LSU RB Derrius Guice, Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk
What the computer chose: Josh Jackson
The Ravens could do just about anything with this pick. This is the team, I've been the most fascinated with in the draft the past few years. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome tends to pick the best player regardless of need, he could pick Lamar Jackson if he wants to build on the future, but in this scenario, I think he gets a cornerback who has the potential to be better than Marcus Peters. Josh Jackson was a ball-hawk last season and he's a solid all-around corner as well.
Pick #17 Los Angeles Chargers
Options: Washington DT Vita Vea, Texas OT Connor Williams, Maryland WR D.J. Moore, Florida DT Taven Bryan
What the computer chose: Williams
The Chargers could potentially draft a QB given that Phillip Rivers is old and they don't have an immediate plan in place for him, the Chargers front-seven might be one of the best in the NFL, but Vea and Bryan have so much upside that I think they would consider taking either one, but I think Williams is the most logical because selecting him gives Phillip Rivers more protection.
Pick #18 Seattle Seahawks
Options: Trade with Jacksonville, Trade with New England, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Boston College DE Harold Landry, UCF CB Mike Hughes, UTEP G Will Hernandez
What the computer chose: Landry
This is not the Seattle team that took the NFL by storm in 2013, in fact, I think Russell Wilson will get exposed this year and they will be really bad. The Seahawks have gotten weak on the front-seven, they let Michael Bennett leave and Cliff Avril has battled injuries. I would prefer Davenport over Landry, but the computer selected Landry who was once projected to be a top-five pick.
Pick #19 Dallas Cowboys
Options: Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, Maryland WR D.J. Moore, Washington DT Vita Vea, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Boise State LB Leighton Vander Esch.
What the computer chose: Kirk
The consensus seems to be that the Cowboys will select a wide receiver, which makes sense after letting Dez Bryant walk, I personally would not be surprised to see them select Vander Esch or Davenport, but in this scenario, the computer prefers Christian Kirk, who has an electric ability that could excite Cowboys fans.
Pick #20 Detroit Lions
Options: LSU RB Derrius Guice, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, UTEP G Will Hernandez, Alabama LB Rashaan Evans, Florida DT Taven Bryan, Washington DT Vita Vea.
What the computer chose: Hernandez
I don't think Matthew Stafford gets enough credit for how much he's done for a roster that isn't really all that good. The Lions could use some help on the front seven, but the computer prefers the one option that isn't a defensive player. The Lions aren't necessarily hurting at the guard position. T.J. Lang is coming off back-to-back Pro Bowls and they recently signed Kenny Wiggins who started all 16-games for the Chargers last year, but I really like Hernandez and drafting him could get the Lions depth on the offensive line.
Pick #21 Cincinnati Bengals
Options: Iowa G James Daniels, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn.
What the computer chose: Daniels
The Bengals traded for Cordy Glenn this offseason, but I still feel that offensive-line is the biggest need to address in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton has regressed and part of that could be due to the regression of his offensive-line since they let Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth walk. James Daniels is a pretty safe pick. Iowa players rarely bust, they come in and they are ready to play right away and Daniels can play both guard and center.
Pick #22 Buffalo Bills
Options: Trade with Jacksonville, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Washington DT Vita Vea, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Alabama LB Rashaan Evans, Florida DT Taven Bryan
What the computer chose: Vea
If the computer-generated scenarios come to fruition, the Bills might be the winner of this draft. They get their quarterback of the future (Josh Allen) and the best defensive tackle in the draft. Kyle Williams is 34-years-old and they should be looking for his replacement in the near future. If Vea slides this far, I think he's the guy and the computer does too.
Pick #23 New England Patriots
Options: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Boise State LB Leighton Vander Esch, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Alabama LB Rashaan Evans, Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph.
What the computer chose: Vander Esch
All of these scenarios make complete sense for New England. Their defense is not very good, their offensive-line has taken a step back and they could look to find Brady's replacement. I really like Vander Esch, he's a high-motor guy who could, COULD end up being a J.J. Watt type player, but there are concerns about his neck injuries and whether or not he will have a sustainable career. If anyone has the credibility to take a risk, it's Bill Belichick and the computer thinks he will do just that.
Pick #24 Carolina Panthers
Options: Maryland WR D.J. Moore, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, South Carolina TE Hayden Hurst, UCF CB Mike Hughes, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
What the computer chose: Sutton
Cam Newton has never been mistaken for an accurate QB, but part of that could be because he's never had a good wide receiver outside of Steve Smith. Kelvin Benjamin failed to live up to the hype. Sutton is a similar player to Benjamin, he has a big frame at 6'4 and his big-frame could give Newton a weapon that can help solve his accuracy woes.
Pick #25 Tennessee Titans
Options: Alabama LB Rashaan Evans, Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport.
What the computer chose: Evans
The Titans have quietly built one of the best rosters in the league. They don't have a true weakness on their roster, if Marcus Mariota breaks out, they could become a Super Bowl contender. Titans GM Jon Robinson and Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel are both Patriots guys and selecting Evans would be a Patriots type move.
Pick #26 Atlanta Falcons
Options: UCF CB Mike Hughes, Louisville CB Jaire Alexander, Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn, Florida DT Taven Bryan, Maryland WR D.J. Moore
What the computer chose: Alexander
Given the recent rumors of rift between the Falcons and Julio Jones, the Falcons could look to the future and draft a wideout, they could also bolster their front-seven by taking Bryan or they could take the home-grown prospect in Isaiah Wynn, but in this scenario, the computer feels that the Falcons should address the secondary, Desmond Trufant is solid, but they could use another corner to compliment him.
Pick #27 New Orleans Saints
Options: Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn, South Carolina TE Hayden Hurst, South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert, Stanford S Justin Reid, Alabama S Ronnie Harrison, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport.
What the computer chose: Harrison
The Saints have quickly turned their roster around. They went from a laughable defense to one of the most dangerous. I personally think the Saints will draft a tight end given that Colby Fleener has not been good and Benjamin Watson is old, but the computer feels that the Saints should draft a safety, maybe the computer is a Saints fan and is mad that Marcus Williams whiffed on tackling Stefon Diggs in the playoffs.
Pick #28 Pittsburgh Steelers
Options: UCF CB Mike Hughes, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Stanford S Justin Reid, LSU RB Derrius Guice, Florida DT Taven Bryan, LSU DE Arden Key.
What the computer chose: Hughes
The Steelers always seem to luck out and nab a player at a spot that it should have been long gone at; Cameron Heyward, David DeCastro, Ryan Shazier, Bud Dupree and T.J. Watt all fell into the lap of the Steelers, so they could take Davenport if he falls this far, but the computer likes Hughes and I think that might be the most logical scenario. Artie Burns has shown promise and is still young, while Joe Haden is getting old for a corner. The Steelers like to draft based on depth and they could do just that with Hughes.
Pick #29 Jacksonville Jaguars
Options: Trade with Arizona, Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph, South Carolina TE Hayden Hurst, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Maryland WR D.J. Moore.
What the computer chose: Trade with Arizona, Cardinals select Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
The Jaguars were probably a QB away from making the Super Bowl so I would not be surprised to see them address that position and take either Rudolph or Jackson. Marcedes Lewis is getting old so I could see them taking a tight end, they lost both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson so they could find their replacement or they could bolster their offensive line, but in this scenario, the Cardinals move up and take Lamar Jackson. This means the Cardinals get two top-30 players and the QB of their future. Jackson scares me because he's the biggest wild-card of the QB's in this draft, but his upside is Michael Vick-caliber.
Pick #30 Minnesota Vikings
Options: Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Pittsburgh OT Brian O'Neil, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport.
What the computer chose: Wynn
I think Miller will ultimately be the choice, but I agree with the computer that the Vikings will address the offensive line. They just gave Kirk Cousins a boatload of money, so protecting him should be of top priority. Right now the Vikings have Nick Easton and Tom Compton starting at guard, nothing terrible, but could certainly use an upgrade and Wynn would provide just that.
Pick #31 New England Patriots
Options: Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Florida DT Taven Bryan, LSU RB Derrius Guice, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver.
What the computer chose: Guice
I put Guice in as an option because he was the best available player and New England likes to take the best available. I think the Patriots will trade down with a team that wants to move up, possibly to select Rudolph, but I just could not find a scenario that I was confident in. Guice is an interesting prospect, there have been reports that Guice's attitude has rubbed teams the wrong way. I think Belichick can fix that and get a steal of a player.
Pick #32 Philadelphia Eagles
Options: Trade with Indianapolis, Trade with Denver, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Georgia RB Sony Michel.
What the computer chose: Oliver
I personally think this the least likely of the scenarios, the Eagles are pretty solid at corner with Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby, but the Eagles are another franchise that picks based on the best available player rather than need. This could be part of the reason they are defending Super Bowl champions.
