Wednesday, June 26, 2019

NASCAR Hypothetical: What if there was a playoff in 2005?

In 2004, NASCAR made the unprecedented shake-up to how it would determine it's champion when it established "The Chase for the Nextel Cup". The new format conveniently came one year after the premier series' champion, Matt Kenseth won the championship despite winning just one race. Whether or not Kenseth's 2003 performance was the main influence behind the creation of the chase is still uncertain and probably always will be.

The system has seen a handful of different formats but NASCAR finally got it right with the 16-driver, playoff format in 2014. This format automatically locks a driver into the playoffs with a victory while the rest the positions are filled by points. Four drivers are then eliminated after every three races until there is only four drivers left standing going into the season's final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The highest finishing of those four drivers is declared the champion.

The only problem with the playoff format is that NASCAR did not create it in 2004.

So, I thought it would be cool to go full-nerd mode and find out for myself in this10-part series to determine who the champions from 2004 through 2013 would have been under a playoff format. I recently broke down the 2004 season, so now it's time to move on to the year that was 2005.

For the points system, I relied on the 2011-2016 points system. In that system, a driver received 47 points for winning, 42 points for second, 41 for third and so on. If the driver who won the race also led the most laps then he received 48 points. Each driver who led a lap received one bonus point and if a driver led the most laps then he received two bonus points. Unfortunately, I could not find a way to factor in stage points, but I did give a driver five playoff points for each regular-season victory and the regular-season champion also received an additional 15 playoff points, much like they do now.

Actual Chase field: Tony Stewart; Greg Biffle; Carl Edwards; Jimmie Johnson; Mark Martin; Rusty Wallace; Ryan Newman; Jeremy Mayfield; Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch 

Stewart, Biffle, Edwards, Johnson, Mayfield, Kenseth and Kurt Busch all won regular season races, so they are locked into the playoffs. Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch did not qualify for The Chase but would have been in the playoffs because of regular season wins. That means 12 drivers qualified with a win and four drivers advance based on points. Martin and Wallace qualified by finishing over 100 points ahead of the cut-line while Newman and Elliott Sadler sneaked in, edging Jamie McMurray by 19 and six points respectively.

Tony Stewart was the regular season champion, so he was granted 15-playoff points to go along with the 15 bonus points he gained from three regular-season victories.

Round of 16-Ryan Newman picked up his first victory of the season at Loudon and advanced to the Round of 12. Jimmie Johnson grabbed the victory at Dover and non-playoff qualifier Dale Jarrett took the victory at the Talladega cutoff race. Heading into Talladega, Matt Kenseth held a one-point advantage over Elliott Sadler for the final transfer spot, Dale Earnhardt. Jr. was just four points above the cutline. Kurt Busch, Sadler, and Kasey Kahne were all on the outside looking in. Kenseth solidified his spot in the Round of 12 with a third-place finish. Busch also managed to race his way in with an eighth-place finish. Kasey Kahne finished 13th, but it was not enough to overcome his struggles at Loudon and Dover. Dale Jr, Sadler, and Jeff Gordon all fell victim to Talladega and were also eliminated.

Advancing to the Round of 12: Tony Stewart; Ryan Newman; Greg Biffle; Carl Edwards; Jimmie Johnson; Jeremy Mayfield; Kevin Harvick; Rusty Wallace; Matt Kenseth; Kurt Busch; Mark Martin and Kyle Busch. 

Eliminated after Round of 16: Kasey Kahne; Elliott Sadler; Dale Earnhardt. Jr. and Jeff Gordon.

Round of 12: Mark Martin punched his ticket to the Round of 8 with a win at Kansas, Jimmie Johnson did the same by completing the season sweep at Charlotte and Jeff Gordon stole a victory from the playoff drivers in the cutoff race at Martinsville. Kyle Busch struggled at Kansas and Charlotte, putting himself in a massive hole going into Martinsville. Kevin Harvick, Rusty Wallace, and Matt Kenseth also sat on the outside looking in. Ryan Newman had a one-point advantage over Kenseth while Jeremy Mayfield sat safely by just five points. Busch finished ninth, Newman clinched his transfer with a 10th-place finish, Kenseth finished 12th, Harvick 15th, Wallace 19th and Mayfield finished 28th, three laps down. Kenseth's finished race himself in while Mayfield's struggles put him out of the playoffs. The efforts of Busch, Wallace and Harvick were not enough to transfer them. Kenseth earned the final transfer spot by 12-points over Mayfield while Wallace, Harvick, and Busch missed by 13, 25 and 27 points respectively.

Advancing to the Round of 8: Tony Stewart; Jimmie Johnson; Greg Biffle; Kurt Busch; Carl Edwards; Ryan Newman; Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth.

Eliminated after Round of 12: Jeremy Mayfield; Rusty Wallace; Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. 

Round of 8: Carl Edwards, who was in his first full season, punched his ticket to the championship round with back-to-back wins at Atlanta and Texas. Kyle Busch stole a win at Phoenix to prevent any of the other seven drivers from automatically qualifying for Homestead. Tony Stewart came into Phoenix, relying comfortably on his 30-playoff points. Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were separated by a mere two points for the final two spots. Martin came in with a two point advantage while Kenseth, Biffle and Johnson were tied with 4088 points. Kenseth held the tiebreaker coming into Phoenix. Kurt Busch was eliminated prior to Phoenix when he was suspended by Roush-Fenway for a traffic violation the week of Phoenix and Ryan Newman had mediocre runs at Atlanta and Texas to put him in a must-win situation going into Phoenix. At Phoenix, Biffle finished second to Kyle Busch, Johnson finished seventh, Newman finished 12th, Martin finished 14th and Kenseth struggled, finishing two laps down in 32nd. Johnson edged Martin for the final transfer spot by just five points.

Advancing to Championship 4: Tony Stewart; Greg Biffle; Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson

Eliminated after Round of 8: Mark Martin; Matt Kenseth; Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch 



WHO WOULD HAVE BEEN THE 2005 CHAMPION?

Yep, Greg Biffle would have been a champion. Let that sink in. Biffle had a career year in 2005 winning six races, including the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway where he edged teammate Mark Martin for the victory. Carl Edwards finished fourth to finish second in the points, Tony Stewart had a mediocre 15th place finish, because in reality, he was trying to conserve his rather large points lead over Edwards and Biffle after Jimmie Johnson crashed on Lap 127, eliminating himself.

If there was a playoff in 2005, Greg Biffle would probably have a spot in the NASCAR Hall of Fame rather than being known as an average driver that had a few good years.

Would there have been any other surprise champions? 2006 is up next.