The 10 Biggest Questions I Have About This High School Football Season

You may or may not have read my blog from yesterday/today on a composite pre-season ranking of all six high school football classes, if you did not, you can view it here. 

http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/08/a-composite-preseason-high-school.html

We are just a few days away from the start of the high school football season and I'm super stoked for it. 

This season has me curious about a lot of things. I've been asking myself many questions, but here are the 10 questions that I'm the most curious to find out the answer for.

In no order.

1) How many touchdowns does Max Duggan have?

You might have heard of Lewis Central quarterback Max Duggan. If you haven't, I will fill you in. He's good at football, so good that he's committed to play at TCU. Duggan is entering his senior year and the expectations for himself and the Titans are lofty for his final prep season. All eyes will be on him throughout the season, so how will he perform? Last year, he had just under 1300 total yards and 17 scores in an injury-shortened season. If Duggan, can stay healthy, one would assume that he scores more than that. I'm going to say he doubles it with let's say 35 touchdowns.

2) What about Cameron Baker?

Max Duggan is not the only really good high school football player in Council Bluffs. Thomas Jefferson running back Cameron Baker is also a Division I recruit who has lofty expectations coming into this season. Baker, like Duggan was marred by injuries in his junior season, but Baker's came during the wrestling season rather than the football season. If you've never watched Baker play, I strongly suggest you try to do it this year. The kid is a beast, there's a video on YouTube that displays that.  Last year, Baker ran for just under 1900-yards and 20 scores. I don't see any reason he can't eclipse 2000-yards and find the endzone at least 25-times in his senior campaign.

3) Who gives Fremont-Mills the best run?

Class 8-Man District 7 is an intriguing district, but the consensus I have gotten from most people is that Fremont-Mills is the favorite. The expectations at Fremont-Mills this year are incredibly high, even for a team that always has incredibly high expectations. I'm not saying this team will be the 2011 team (I doubt any team ever will be), but the pieces are there to being play in the final game of the season. However, who is going to stand up to the Knights and possibly joust them? Stanton, Bedford and Sidney would be the three most likely candidates in the district although East Mills could be a wild card. Sidney has the size to play the type of physical game that we are accustomed to seeing FM play, but it also sounds like they are going to sling it some this year, that benefits Stanton and Bedford. If I was betting man, I would bet that Stanton is the most likely to dethrone them. Good thing I'm not a betting man.

           4) Is this East Atchison's year to win the 275 Conference? 

The consensus from my friends who are more knowledgeable of Northwest Missouri than I am is that Mound City is the favorite to take the 275 crown after losing a heartbreaker to Rock Port last year. The Panthers return some key pieces from last year's team and have the pedigree. The defending conference champs, Rock Port boasted an undefeated regular season last year, but they lost their starting quarterback (Jase Hughes) and stud wideout (Ryan Dewhirst), so they have some big shoes to fill. East Atchison has had some solid teams in years past, but they have not been able to get past Mound City and Rock Port, but I think this year is their best chance. They return their top passer, top rusher and top receiver. Time will tell if the Wolves can take down Rock Port and Mound City, whom they face in back-to-back weeks.

5) Who will replace Nick Foss?

There is no doubt that Harlan's Nick Foss was a boss. Foss shined in every sport he participated in, but he was something special in football. The Minnesota State-Mankato commit ran for just over 2000-yards and added 32 touchdowns. He also added nearly 500-yards and four scores receiving. Foss's presence will most likely be missed, but this is not the first time Harlan has replaced a player of his caliber and it pry will not be the last. The question is who steps up and how long does it take them to break through? The Cyclones top returning rusher, Caleb Bieker ran for 253-yards and two scores on just 58-carries last season. I would assume that he's going to get the bulk of the carries this year and if he does, he will have big shoes to fill. 

6) Who comes out of Class A District 9?

I cringed when this district came out. AHSTW, Southwest Valley, and St. Albert were all playoff teams and competitive ones at that. AHSTW was 8-0 going into their final regular season game, Southwest Valley had a perfect regular season and St. Albert made it to a state semi-final last season. Not to mention Earlham probably could have been a playoff team if not for a one-point loss to eventual Class 1A champ Van Meter. All four teams lose some important pieces from last season, Southwest Valley loses nearly every single starter, St. Albert must replace a legendary senior class, AHSTW graduated their starting quarterback, R.J. Harris and Earlham lost their leading passer and rusher. This is a tough district to predict. If I had to give an edge to someone, I might lean towards Earlham or maybe AHSTW, or maybe St. Albert. I just don't know.

                     7) Who wins the Grand River Conference?

North Andrew, Stanberry and Worth County have combined for the last seven Missouri 8-Man state titles, so you have to assume it's likely one of those three gets it done this season, but who? Last season's Worth County squad was one of legendary proportions, but many of the pieces to that well-oiled machine are gone. North Andrew lost a handful of pieces from last year while Stanberry returns their top passer (Cole Durbin) and leading rusher (Trey Schieber). The fine folks at Straight-Up Sports have the Bulldogs ranked as the top team in 8-man, I can see why. The wildcard in this conference is King City, they have lofty expectations, but have the misfortune of having to take on North Andrew, Worth County and Stanberry on the road this season. That's brutal.

8) How wild does 8-Man District 8 become and who wins it?

I have made it clear that I'm stoked to see any team and/or district. But Iowa 8-Man District 8 is totally up in the air, or at least it looks that way right now. Audubon had a dominant team last year, but their one-two-three punch of Tyler Riebhoff, Nolan Smith and Josh Lange is gone. CAM returns just about everybody, but the one-player they don't return might be the one they miss the most in star quarterback Thomas Hensley. Exira-EHK battled injuries last season but returns a lot. Glidden-Ralston had a down-year last season but bring back some key pieces and Woodbine must replace the man that is Joey Wolf, but they have a pair of Pryors (Wyatt and Lane) that can razzle and dazzle. This is going to be a fun district.

9) Which zero or one-win team from a year ago makes the biggest leap?

Seven schools in area districts; ACGC, Essex, Murray, Nodaway Valley, Red Oak, Seymour-Moulton-Udell and West Harrison went winless or won just a single game last year. An eighth team, Mormon Trail did not even field a team, but will this year. I find it hard to believe that all these teams will have the same result. ACGC has a new coach and returns their leading rusher, but they still have some pieces to fill, Essex returns just about everyone but finds themselves in a tough district. Nodaway Valley lost their starting quarterback and is a resident in the aforementioned Class A District 9. West Harrison is in the wild  8-Man District 8 and Murray, Mormon Trail and Seymour-Moulton-Udell all reside in 8-Man District 6, so at least two of them will get a win. Meanwhile, in Class 2A, Red Oak returns their starting quarterback, all 952-rushing yards from last season, their top receiver and their top-five tacklers. I think they are the most likely to see a two or three game win improvement, but I also would not count out Essex and there's a chance that one team in 8-Man 6 wins at least two games thanks to the way their schedule plays out. 

10) How will the RPI work?

Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably know that the IAHSAA changed the postseason qualification format for the 2018 season.  The fine folks at the IAHSAA opted to move on from the two automatic postseason qualifiers from each district that we have seen the past two seasons. Now, the only way to guarantee a postseason berth is to win your district. We can debate whether that is a good thing or a bad thing, but that's irrelevant. What is relevant is that the new format means a team could finish 7-2, second in their district and not make the postseason. This not super likely, but it is possible. The major differences from this format and the old one are two things, 1) The whole season is taken into effect rather than just district play, which is huge and could be good or bad, depending on how you start your season. 2) A 14-13 win counts the same as a 70-0 win and a victory over an undefeated Class 4A top-ranked Dowling Catholic would count the same as a victory over a top-ranked team in Class A. That scenario should not matter, but I'm still not a fan of it. With the RPI, it is possible that we could see some districts that have three or four teams make the postseason while other districts could have just one representative.

I don't love or hate the RPI yet, but I am curious to see how it plays out.

A Composite Preseason High School Football Rankings.

I am a nerd, I've never tried to hide it. Sometimes when I get bored my nerdiness comes out and tonight it did just that.

We are just four days away from the official start of the 2018 high school football season. With a new season, comes preseason rankings. 

I do not envy the media publications that put forth preseason rankings. They are tough to do because you are dictating of multiple variables that you cannot totally forecast. Basically, you are looking for which teams bring back what and while that usually works out, it's no small task.

As I said, I got bored tonight, so I found the preseason rankings that the fine folks at the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette and Radio Iowa did and kept a tally to create a composite ranking.

A team received 10 points for 1st place, 9 for second and so on. Props to the six people at the Gazette who voted, because they did a similar criterion, the caveat to their system is that created ties, in the event of a tie, the teams split the points in half or in-thirds if it was a three-way tie.

All schools that received top-ten rankings by at least one publication are on this composite.

Any who, let’s look at those composite rankings.

Total points are in parentheses.

CLASS 8-MAN

1) Don Bosco-Gilbertville (30)

2) Fremont-Mills (27)

3) Gladbrook-Reinbeck (20)

4) Newell-Fonda (14)

5) Midland (Wyoming) (12)

6) HLV-Victor (8)

7) Ar-We-Va (7.5)

8) Turkey Valley (7)

9) Remsen-St. Mary (5.5)

10) New London (5)

10) Exira-EHK (5)

10) Lone Tree (5)

10) Stanton (5)

14) Baxter (4)

14) Audubon (4)

16) Iowa Valley (1.5)

17) WACO, Wayland (1)

CLASS A

1) Hudson (30)

2) Bishop Garrigan-Algona (24)

3) St. Ansgar (23)

4) West Hancock (22)

5) St. Albert (17)

6) Lynville-Sully (15)

7) AHSTW (11)

8) IKM-Manning (6)

9) East Buchanan (4)

10) Belle Plaine (3.5)

11) Wapsie Valley (3)

11) Westwood, Sloan (3)

13) Belmond-Klemme (2)

14) Sioux Central (1)

CLASS 1A

1) Iowa City, Regina (28)

2) West Sioux (25)

3) Pella Christian (19)

4) Dike-New Hartford (15)

5) Cascade (14.5)

6) Aplington-Parkersburg (14)

7) West Branch (11)

8) Van Meter (10)

9) Wilton (9.5)

10) West Lyon (9)

11) South Central Calhoun (6)

12) Bellevue (3) 

13) Western Christian (1)

CLASS 2A

1) Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley (27)

2) Williamsburg (25)

3) Union, LaPorte City (24)

4) PCM, Monroe (18)

5) Waukon (17)

5) Clear Lake (17)

7) Mount Vernon (14)

8) New Hampton (8)

9) Spirit Lake (5)

9) Sioux Center (5)

11) Kuemper Catholic (4)

12) West Marshall (1)

CLASS 3A

1) Cedar Rapids, Xavier (29)

2) Lewis Central (28)

3) North Scott (23)

4) Sergeant Bluff-Luton (17)

5) Pella (16.5)

5) Solon (16.5)

7) West Delaware (15)

8) Harlan (7)

9) Dallas Center-Grimes (6)

10) Waverly-Shell Rock (4)

11) Webster City (2)

12) Glenwood (1)

CLASS 4A

1) Dowling Catholic (30)

2) Johnston (26)

3) Bettendorf (24)

4) WDM Valley (21)

5) Cedar Falls (19)

6) Cedar Rapids, Prairie (15)

7) Ankeny Centennial (10)

8) Iowa City West (9)

9) Southeast Polk (6)

10) Waukee (3.5)

11) Pleasant Valley (1.5)

These Area High School Football Teams Could Surprise People This Year.

It's a new season of high school football in Southwest Iowa. With a new season comes new surprises. Every year, there is at least one team that totally exceeds expectations (2013 Southwest Valley, 2014 Clarinda for example). So let’s take a look at the six area teams that I think are most likely to surprise people this year. 

The only requirements to make this list are; 1) Must have had five wins or less last season 2) Did not make the postseason. 3) I can envision at least a two win improvement out of them this season.

This list is in no particular order.

1: Atlantic (5-4 in 2017)

Last year, the Trojans improved from a 1-8 2016 campaign to a 5-4 record in 2017. Last season's improvement was so impressive to me that head coach Mike McDermott received my vote for area coach of the year. The Trojans lost their starting quarterback, Jackson Eden, but return a do-it-all athlete in Chase Mullenix who racked up almost 500-yards receiving last season. Atlantic lost a handful of key pieces from last season, but I think last year was a testament to the culture being instilled under Coach McDermott, plus their district appears to be wide open with the exception of perhaps Kuemper Catholic.

2: Creston (2-7 in 2017)

Unfortunately for Creston, replacing stud athlete Chase Shiltz was not the Panthers’ biggest problem last season. The fact that they played in a super tough district did not do them any favors either. The addition of Lewis Central to the district makes it even tougher, but I think this is a much better Creston team. The Panthers lost current Iowa State offensive lineman Trevor Downing, but they return the dynamic duo of quarterback Eli Loudon and wide receiver Kylan Smallwood. Loudon came on late in the season and anyone that's ever seen Smallwood knows his athletic potential. This could be the most potent combination in the area and Creston's recent history with the exception of last year indicates that they could bounce back this season.

3: Exira-EHK (5-4 in 2017)

For as long as I can remember, Exira-EHK has been a staple among area 8-Man teams. The Spartans were victims last year of injuries and an incredibly tough district. This year, they hope to keep everyone healthy and their district appears much more wide open. The Spartans return their leading passer and rusher in Josh Pettepier and Cole Burmeister respectively, as well as the majority of their defensive playmakers. This a team that I think has the potential to make a deep postseason run. The pieces are definitely there.

4: Bedford (5-4 in 2017)

Bedford has the toughest 8-Man district in this area with Sidney, Fremont-Mills and Stanton also residing in this district. However, the Bulldogs have the duo of Cooper Nally to Brennan Sefrit that could dazzle people and put up points at the same time. The real question is whether their high-powered offense will be enough to dethrone the beast that is Fremont-Mills and an equally high-powered offense in Stanton. It's not a guarantee, but it's definitely a possibly that the Bulldogs improve by a few wins.

5: Clarinda (2-7 in 2017)

Aside from Exira-EHK, this is the team on this list I am the most confident in. Last season, The Cardinals had a young team, a first year coach and a tough district. This year they have a more experienced team, a more experienced head coach and more-wide open district. They return just about everybody from last season and I have been told by someone who would know that they have retired the "spinner" offense for an offense that better suits Coach Roger Williams' style of smash mouth football. I am really high on this team and I hope they can show you why.

6: Treynor (4-5 in 2017)

The Cardinals might be the sleeper team of all sleeper teams heading into 2018. Last year, Treynor was an incredibly young team and it showed at times, but they still managed a 4-5 record. To give you an idea of how young they were, they lost just four seniors and 36 of the 49 players on their roster were either freshman or sophomores. Teams like this tend to take some bumps and then respond with some progress. It helps that the Cardinals return their quarterback (Jake Fisher) as well as every single rushing yard from 2017. This is a much more seasoned team. It's also worth noting that this year they play in a district where no team in it won more than six games last year and the one team that did (Missouri Valley) graduated a decent amount of key contributors. Call me crazy, but I think this is a team that has playoff potential.

We are just 15-days away from finding out.

These Area High School Football Games Have Me The Most Intrigued

Hello people who actually read my blogs (mom). It's been awhile, but there's no better time than now.

The high school football season is right around the corner (just 16 days!). When someone asks me what my favorite sport is to cover, I answer wrestling, but there's just something about football season that gets me jacked up. Nothing like driving all over Iowa to watch/cover some really good teams and athletes. There are lots of games every night and each week there are certain games I am way more intrigued by.

Here are those games.

WEEK 1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton @ Lewis Central

I am intrigued by just about any game Lewis Central has this season, especially if TCU commit Max Duggan is calling the signals. However, that's not the only reason I am excited for this game. Lewis Central has made the drop from Class 4A to Class 3A and could be a state title contender right off the bat. They lost a handful of key pieces from last season, but they have some other really good talent besides Duggan. As for Sergeant Bluff, they like Lewis Central were a state quarterfinalist last season. The Warriors finished the 2017 regular season undefeated, but fell to Harlan in the playoffs and return their quarterback (Daniel Wright) and a 1500-yard rusher (Britton Delperdang). This is a great game to kick off the season.

WEEK 2: Audubon @ Fremont-Mills

I contemplated putting the Exira-EHK/Sidney matchup here, but this one takes the cake. Last year, Audubon rolled through the regular season before dropping a state quarterfinal to Remsen St. Mary's (who is also their Week 1 opponent). The Wheelers lost their three-headed monster of Tyler Riebhoff, Josh Lange and Nolan Smith, but the Wheelers tend to be well-coached team and could reload rather than rebuild. The first two games will be a huge measuring stick for the Wheelers' 2018 season. As for Fremont-Mills, the Knights were a state semifinalist despite not even winning their district. The Knights return basically everything from last year and the expectations are really high. 

WEEK 3: Kuemper Catholic @ Glenwood

Anytime Kuemper and Glenwood meet it tends to be fun. No matter what sport it is. We don't know a ton about these teams other than they have had lots of success the past few years, but have both graduated a ton of key pieces. I would like to applaud both teams for not pulling any punches when scheduling  non-district games. Kuemper has St. Albert, South Central Calhoun and Glenwood while Glenwood has Carroll, Bishop Heelan and Kuemper in their first three games. There is a realistic shot that both these teams are 0-2 coming into this game, but there's probably just as equal a chance they are 2-0.

WEEK 4: Southwest Valley @ Clarinda

This one might look like a head scratcher, but hear me out. These two teams have scrimmaged each other in years past, but have never played each other in a competitive game. Last year, Southwest Valley put up their best season in school history posting a 9-0 regular season record and being ranked as high as second in the state polls. Unfortunately, most of the key pieces from that team are gone but I've seen first-hand the culture and attitude that has been instilled at Southwest Valley and trust me, it's good... Clarinda finished last season 2-7. The Cardinals have made the jump down from Class 2A to Class 1A, return just about everybody and it sounds like they are going to switch to a new offense that better suits their playing style. This could be a sneaky good game.

WEEK 5: Lewis Central @ Creston

Like I said, I am intrigued by any game Lewis Central is playing in this season. Week five will mark the start of district play in Class 3A and District 9 is loaded with Creston, Lewis Central, Harlan, Winterset, Glenwood and ADM-Adel. I noted earlier that Lewis Central is probably the favorite in this district and perhaps the state, but don't sleep on Creston. The Panthers had a down year last year, but it's hard to predict the same from a program that's had so much success over the past few years. I think the Eli Loudon to Kylan Smallwood connection could be the most potent in the area. Is it enough to knock off Lewis Central? I'm not sure, but I do know that one of these two teams will begin district play with a loss.

WEEK 6: Southwest Valley @ St. Albert 

Class 3A District 9 is probably the best district in this area, but I think Class A District District 9 is a close second. There's a very good chance that Earlham, St. Albert, Southwest Valley and AHSTW all beat up on each other while we see signs of improvement from Nodaway Valley and Riverside. Last year, Southwest Valley pulled off an 8-7 stunner over St. Albert on a field with conditions that probably heavily favored Southwest Valley, both these teams lost a bulk of their production from last year and Week 6 could be a real strong indicator of how these team's seasons will play out. Will Southwest Valley prove last season was not a fluke? Will St. Albert get revenge? What will these two teams’ records be coming into this game? We will have to wait until September 28th to answer those questions.

WEEK 7: Harlan @ Lewis Central

Well look at that, another Class 3A District 9 game on this list. These two teams have met the past couple years, but have been non-district games, this year it could be for all the marbles. Harlan lost their stud Nick Foss, but they return some solid pieces including UNI commit Jake McLaughlin on the defensive side. Plus, we all know its Harlan, they don't rebuild, they reload. The real difference maker in this game will be Max Duggan (as he pry will be in most). Two years ago Lewis Central defeated Harlan 45-13 behind five scores from Duggan (1 passing, 4 rushing). Last year, the future Horned Frog left the game due to injury in a 24-14 victory over a much improved Harlan team. This might be the game I'm the most excited for all season.

WEEK 8: Sidney @ Fremont-Mills

I'm not sure if folks from these communities consider this a rivalry, but if they do, then this is the best 8-Man rivarly in our area. Fremont-Mills/Sidney almost always means something. Last year Sidney stunned Fremont-Mills en route to a perfect regular season. The Knights got their retribution by defeating Sidney 35-9 on the Cowboys home field in State Quarterfinal. As I noted, Fremont-Mills returns basically everyone and is considered by many as the favorite in Class 8-Man District 7. Sidney lost many pieces from last year including stud rusher Bryson Duncan, but the Cowboys have some big, mean, green (not really), blocking machines on their front-line that could probably even pave the way for me to rush for 1,000 yards (OK--maybe not). There is a good chance this game doesn't resemble much of an 8-Man game and could be a low scoring affair that is won in the trenches.

WEEK 9: St. Albert @ AHSTW

Seven of the nine games on this list feature a team from either Class A District 9 or Class 3A District 9. I think that means those two districts will be a ton of fun. I personally believe that it's highly likely that the Class A District 9 title could be decided in this match-up. As I noted earlier, St. Albert has some huge shoes to fill, including those of their former head coach Kevin Culjat, but I don't doubt the Falcons and you probably should not either. AHSTW lost their quarterback R.J. Harris, but they return their leading rusher and tackler (Gabe Pauley) as well as two of their top three receivers (Drake Partridge and Blake Osbahr). Every year at least one area district comes down to a last week battle between the top two teams. I think this game could be that.

BONUS: WEEK 2: Worth County (MO) @ Bedford 

I originally said one per week, but my blog, my rules and this brings the total to even 10. As Adrian Monk would say, I like the number 10.

 Before I dive into this matchup, I need to rant.

 The IAHSAA has this game listed as being played at Worth County, but Missouri 8-Man's twitter account as well as Bedford's school website have this game listed as being played in Bedford. I'm going to trust the school website and assume it's in Bedford, but maybe they are planning on playing it somewhere in the middle (Blockton maybe?). 

Anywho, I feel bad for anybody who did not get to witness Worth County last year. I saw them in person and in my opinion only the 2011 Fremont-Mills Knights could possibly beat them. The defending Show-Me-State 8-Man Champs lost their top two rushers and some dudes on the o-line, but the pieces and culture is there for a repeat. Bedford finished last season 5-4, but I have a feeling the Cooper Nally/Brennan Sefrit duo could be as exciting in football as it is in basketball. That's pretty darn exciting. 

Perhaps the part I'm most excited about is that I've never got to see an area Iowa school play an out-of-state school and we will see that in Week 2. 

I don't think it will disappoint and I hope this blog didn't either.