Thursday, December 27, 2018

If I had a MLB Hall of Fame Ballot, it would look like this.




I've always been fascinated by Hall of Fames whether it be baseball, football, even NASCAR. Hall of Fames are great (literally). Almost all careers in sports are determined by whether or not they reach the hall of fame. Reaching the hall of fame in any sport is a massive honor and a huge achievement that is usually well deserved.

Perhaps no Hall of Fame carries more of an honor than the National Baseball Hall of Fame because it is so difficult to get into and the voting process is...well, let's just say interesting.

The Baseball Hall of Fame members are elected through one of two ways; being selected through the Veterans committee (and their four sub-committee's) or by receiving 75% of the vote from the voters of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). BBWAA voters are allowed to vote for up to ten players on the ballot, but not everyone votes for 10 players. Last year only 173 of the 317 ballots that were made public voted for 10 players.

Personally, I think it's dumb to not vote for 10. I'll be honest, it would be tough for me to pick just 10. Each year there are anywhere between 12 to 20 candidates that have a strong case for election.  A

As I mentioned, I would have a tough time voting for just 10. So I created a scoring system to help me create my imaginary ballot. The scoring system comprises of five analytical categories that I stumbled across on Baseball Reference.

They are.

1. Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: This was created by the great statistician Bill James. This statistic attempts to determine how likely a player is to be inducted. A score of over 100 means the player is more likely than not while a score of under 100 means a player is less likely than not.

2. Bill James Hall of Fame Standards: I wish I was a smart as Bill James. This stat measures how well a player's career stats match up to the typical standards of a Hall of Famer. A score of 50 is considered an "average" Hall of Famer.

3. Wins Above Replacement (WAR): This stat measures how many wins it is estimated this player accounted for during his career.

4. Wins Above Replacement Best 7 (WAR7). This is the WAR rating, except it takes the players 7-best WAR seasons. I think this is stat is very important because it shows just how important a player was during his prime.

5. Jaffe War Score System (JAWS): This stat was created by Jay Jaffe. I don't think I'm smart enough to explain it, but I'll try. This stat contains both WAR and WAR7 while also comparing players to the average Hall of Fame members by position.


I then used these rankings to create my ballot. I took the top nine highest scoring players as well as one player who is clearly deserving of Cooperstown, but did not score well (more on that later).

There happened to be a tie for a final spot on my ballot, so I broke the tie by my own personal preference.

JUST MISSED THE CUT 
Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Relievers do not fare well in this scoring system, so I have to completely throw them out when it comes to filling out my "ballot" and just use my own discretion. Billy Wagner was the most compelling player to me on the ballot because I think you can make an argument for his Cooperstown case either way. Wagner was really good for the majority of his career, but spent most of his career in the shadows of Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. He finished his career with the highest strike-out rate among pitchers with at least 800 innings and with a better ERA and more strikeouts than Hoffman who pitched 186 less innings (almost three years’ worth) than Wagner. If you could vote for 15 Wagner would be on my "ballot", also if 10 got in every year, he would definitely get in, maybe even next year.

Andruw Jones (1996-2012), 118 Points
Andruw Jones had the misfortune of being on a Braves team that was absolutely loaded in the mid '90's and early 2000's. Teammates Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones have already staked their claim in Cooperstown. He had a career that certainly has a case for Cooperstown with the 10th highest WAR and fifth highest WAR7 among all nominees, but that's as high as he ranks in any category.

Scott Rolen (1996-2012), 118 Points 
I'm a little surprised Scott Rolen scored as high as he did, but he was a pretty good player for a long period of time finishing his career with .281 batting average and .855 OPS, he also posted a higher WAR rating than Hall of Fame members Tony Gywnn, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. Rolen has the sixth highest WAR of eligible players, but was ranked 22nd by the Hall of Fame Meter. Like I said, Rolen was a very good player, but Cooperstown worthy? I don't know. 

Gary Sheffield (1988-2009), 128 Points
Gary Sheffield is another player that was good for a long period of time. Sheffield played 22 seasons for eight different teams, was an All-Star nine times and won the 1992 NL Batting Title. That's quite the career, but he fails to make my ballot despite being ranked no lower than 13th in any category. Sheffield had the fourth highest Hall of Fame Standard score, but that was not enough for him to crack the top nine. I think Sheffield, like Rolen and Andruw Jones is a "fringe" Hall of famer that will never get in because not everyone puts 10 on their ballot. 

Sammy Sosa (1989-2007), 132 Points
I will prefix this by saying there is no way Sosa ever gets in the hall. Whether it’s fair or not, the steroid allegations have caused that (more on that later). Sosa tied for the last spot on my imaginary ballot, but unfortunately, I felt that the other player was much more deserving. Sosa is mainly remembered for his 66-home run season in 1998. Sosa ranked fifth in HOF Meter and eighth in HOF Standards, but was outside the top ten in WAR and JAWS, ultimately costing him a spot on my ballot.

THE BALLOT
Mariano Rivera (1995-2013)
As I said earlier with Billy Wagner, the one glaring flaw in my scoring system is that it does not give relievers the respect they deserve. If I went solely by this system, Rivera might not ever make it to Cooperstown and that's just stupid to think of. Rivera is hands-down a first-ballot Hall of Famer and has a legitimate case to be unanimous, even though he will not be. Rivera finished his career as the all-time leader in Saves (652), was a 13-time All-Star and a major reason for the Yankees five championships from 1996-2009. You can make an argument that Wagner does not belong, but I don't see how you possibly could with Rivera. If you don't think he's worthy of the games' highest honor, you should not watch baseball. Enough said.

Barry Bonds (1986-2007), 175 Points
This is the part of the blog where I tell you that I think players associated with steroid abuse still deserve a spot in Cooperstown. First off, there's already steroid users in the hall. Second off, there are many racists, alcoholics and drug addicts in the hall, so let’s quit playing morality card. Lastly, I think Bonds (along with a few other players on my ballot) would have been Hall of Famers without steroids, plus it's not like the dude was sitting around eating Cheetos, injecting steroids and hitting 762 homers, the dude still had to work. Bonds scored the highest in every single category. So let's quit being stupid and just put him in Cooperstown already.

Roger Clemens (1984-2007), 170 Points
Another great player linked to allegations of steroid abuse and more of me not caring. Roger Clemens was one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball for nearly two decades. That's remarkable and deserving of a spot in Cooperstown. Clemens had the lowest-season ERA seven times during his career, led the AL in strikeouts five times, led the MLB in wins four times and won seven Cy Young Awards. Bonds and Clemens ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in every single category. One more time, let's quit being stupid and put him in Cooperstown.

Curt Schilling (1988-2007), 150 Points
Curt Schilling does not seem like a pleasant person and his extremely conservative beliefs have turned some voters against him, but this is the Baseball Hall of Fame, so only what he did on the mound should be considered. Schilling ranked in the top five among candidates in WAR, WAR7 and JAWS. But I don't think you need the sabermetrics to put him in Cooperstown. Schilling was a clutch-postseason pitcher leading the Diamondbacks and Red Sox to titles in 2001 and 2004. I know he's not the greatest person in the world, but that does not matter, he should be in Cooperstown.

Larry Walker (1989-2005), 147 Points 
The fact that Larry Walker, who has never been tied to any steroid allegations, has not got in yet is just blasphemy. I think part of Walker's problem was that he spent most of his career in Montreal and Colorado, so it's easy to forget about him, but that does not take away from how great a player he was. Walker retired with a .313 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and a .565 slugging percentage. He is one of just 19 retired players in MLB history with a career slash line of .300/.400/.500 and he's one of only a handful of players who have done it since 1960.

 Walker has a better career WAR rating than 14 right-fielders that are currently in Cooperstown and is also the only player in MLB history to finish his career with at least a .310 batting average, 380 home runs, .965 OPS, 470 doubles and 230 stolen bases. He was so good at everything that it's silly he is not in the hall already. If he does not get in, then personally, I don't think you can put Joey Votto in which is also dumb, but they've had similar career paths, so if one is excluded, then in theory they both should be.

Manny Ramirez (1993-2011), 144 Points
Manny Ramirez has been on the ballot twice and has pulled in less than 25-percent of the vote both times, so he's got a long ways to go to get to Cooperstown. I personally don't think it will happen given the PED use later in his career, but Ramirez scored exceptionally well in my ranking system and I personally think he's Hall of Fame caliber, so he gets my vote. Remember when I said Larry Walker is one of only a handful of players with a career slash line of .300/.400/.500, well Ramirez also holds  that honor. He was also super clutch with a MLB-best 29 postseason home runs and a second-best 78 RBI's. That's not the be-all-end-all because Bernie Williams is second and first respectively on those lists and is never getting close to Cooperstown, but Ramirez had a much better career.

Mike Mussina (1991-2008), 143 Points
This looks to be the year that Mike Mussina finally gets to Cooperstown. Mussina received 63-percent of the vote last year and has improved his vote count by at least eight-percent the past few years, so this should be the year. However, it's dumb that he's had to wait this long. Mussina is one of only 13 players with 17 seasons of 10 or more wins. 12 of those are in the Hall of Fame. Mussina is also the only pitcher with 100-more wins than losses not in Cooperstown other than Roger Clemens. Mussina also ranked in the top seven in every analytical category except for Hall of Fame Meter. There's no reason Mussina should not be on a ten person ballot and as I've said before, there's no reason someone should not vote for 10 players. 

Todd Helton (1997-2013), 141 Points
Todd Helton was one of my favorite players as a kid but that's not why he's on my ballot. Aside from Wagner, Helton might be the most compelling person on the ballot. The stigma of playing at Colorado will most definitely hurt his status. I don't care about that, but some people do. Those same people forget that Helton put better numbers on the road than many hall of famers such as Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn and George Brett. Helton is also the third player on my ballot who posted a career slash line of .300/.400/.500. How he fares on this years' ballot will be a telling tale of his status going forward. I can tell you that of the 118 ballots currently made public, he has received just 20-percent of the vote. 

Roy Halladay (1998-2013), 136 Points
The late Roy Halladay is the second and final first time candidate on my ballot. Halladay, who was tragically killed in an airplane crash in November 2017 has a strong case for Cooperstown. Some might argue that his recent passing will gain him votes and maybe it will, but he'd be on my ballot regardless. During his career Halladay had three 20+ win seasons, led the MLB in wins twice, claimed two Cy Young Awards, hurled a perfect game and threw one of only two postseason no-hitters in MLB history.  Halladay had the third highest WAR7 score among candidates, ranking only behind Bonds and Clemens. Halladay’s JAWS score ranked seventh among all candidates and is better than half of the 63 starting pitchers that are already in Cooperstown. He should be first ballot. 

Edgar Martinez (1987-2004), 132 Points
The scoring system created a tie between Edgar Martinez and Sammy Sosa for the final spot on my ballot, so I used my personal judgement to break it. To me, it’s not even close. Edgar Martinez is far more deserving of Cooperstown than Sosa ever will be. 2019 will be the final season Martinez is allowed to be on the ballot, so he has to get in this year. Martinez ranked no lower than 11th in any of the five analytical categories I used for my ballot. He's also the fourth player on this ballot (Ramirez, Helton, Walker) that finished his career with a slash line of 300/400/500. I feel like I've beat a dead horse with that stat, but those four players are the only players who accomplished that feat not in Cooperstown with the exception of Shoeless Joe Jackson, who is ineligible. 

The argument against Martinez' candidacy has been that he spent a large part of his career as a designated hitter. This argument is silly, Martinez put up silly numbers and is the only DH to ever win a batting title. Harold Baines---who was a fine, but not great player for the Orioles and White Sox was just elected to Cooperstown by the Today's Game Committee and his career statistics does not even pale in comparison to Martinez. So if Baines is worthy of Cooperstown and you think Martinez is not, you should have to undergo a psychological evaluation.

If you had a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame, who would you vote for? 












Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Aggregate HS Wrestling Team Rankings.

Wrestling season is here. With the new season comes a variety of different rankings. Experts all over the state have already compiled their rankings for this upcoming season. While preseason rankings definitely need to be taken with a grain of salt, they are fun to look at, especially later in the season.

You might remember my aggregate rankings from this past football season.. Well I thought it would be cool to do something similar for wrestling. However, this was much more difficult. To compile this "ranking", I relied on the rankings provided by the fine folks at both IAWrestle and the Predicament. Words cannot describe how much I appreciate the work they do and how much simpler it makes my life during wrestling season.

For these rankings, teams received 10 points for each individual they had ranked first, nine points for second and so on. It is not perfect system, but it gives us a good idea of which teams appear to have the most firepower.

The top ten teams in each class as well as all area times are listed below. Points are in parentheses. Area teams are in bold.

CLASS 1A Top Ten
1. Denver (123)
2. Don Bosco (85)
3. Woodbury Central (71)
4. Sioux Central (57)
5. Missouri Valley (50)
6. Lisbon (47)
7. Lake Mills (43)
8. Underwood (39)
8. I-35 (39)
10. Martensdale-St. Marys (38)
North Linn (38)
Newman Catholic (38)
MFL-Marmac (38)

OTHER AREA TEAMS
15. Mount Ayr (30)
18. AHSTW (28)
22. Bedford/Lenox (24)
34. Logan-Magnolia (16)
38 Southeast Warren (12)
46. Tri-Center (9)
50. Audubon (8)
52. Southwest Valley (7)
66. Riverside (3)
66. East Union (3)
72. Wayne (2)

THOUGHTS 
77 teams in Class 1A have at least one ranked wrestler. That number is the highest of all the classes and that makes sense given that there are more 1A schools than there is 2A or 3A. 1A has been dominated the past few years by the likes of Don Bosco, Lisbon, Alburnett and Denver. This year, Denver looks to be loaded and will for sure have its sights set on its first traditional team title since 2010 while Don Bosco is looking for their seventh in the past 14 seasons. Woodbury Central is led by a trio heavy hitters in Beau Klingensmith, Wade Mitchell and Garrett Arment, but they also have a handful of other capable performers that have received preseason love.

 Missouri Valley is the highest ranked area team and I have to be honest, I overlooked the Big Red coming into this season. They graduated Nathan Haynes and Tom Rief, but they return the likes of Connor Lange, Nick Haynes, Duke Kyle and Arron Olson. Coach Kiefer Jensen still has a really good squad. Underwood has just three wrestlers ranked in preseason polls, but they are three really good ones, Logan James, Blake Thomsen and Michael Baker. The Eagles are led by a few studs that should be able to score them lots of points in tournaments. The most interesting area team to me is Mount Ayr, the Raiders scored enough points in my system to rank 15th. Like Underwood, they also have just three ranked wrestlers, but they are three good ones.

CLASS 2A Top Ten
1. PCM, Monroe (81)
2. West Delaware (57)
3. Centerville (54)
Red Oak (54)
5. Monticello (52)
6. Union, LaPorte City (48)
7. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (46)
Clear Lake (46)
9. New Hampton/Turkey Valley (43)
10. Solon (40)

Other Area Teams 
18. Bishop Heelan (28)
37. Kuemper Catholic (18)
43. Atlantic/CAM (15)
49. Shenandoah (11)
Southwest Iowa (11)
63. Creston/OM (4)

THOUGHTS 
I don't think it's crazy to predict that PCM will be as good at wrestling as they were at football and they were really good at football. The Mustangs are led by the duo of Wes Cummings and Lucas Roland but they have a handful of dudes that will also hold their own. According to the IAHSAA archives, PCM has never won a team title, but this could be the year. 

When I decided to do this, I was really curious to see where Red Oak would wind up. I anticipated the Tigers to be around the fifth-to-seventh place range, but feared they could be lower. I'm glad to say I was wrong. The Tigers have five ranked wrestlers, all of which were state qualifiers last year, including two state place winners (Justin McCunn and Thomas Bentley) and this system does not account for a breakthrough wrestler that Coach Tiegen Podliska is most likely to have. There's a better chance than not that the Tigers place really high in Des Moines, perhaps higher than they ever have before. 

While these "rankings" might not support it, I do think Atlantic and Creston will be much better than said rankings. Both teams return some good pieces and will most likely have a wrestler or two that will catch us off-guard. 

CLASS 3A Top Ten
1. Southeast Polk (129)
2. Waverly-Shell Rock (110)
3. Fort Dodge (79)
4. Waukee (76)
5. Ankeny Centennial (60)
6. CR Kennedy (58)
7. Johnston (56)
8. Mason City (55)
9. Norwalk (54)
10. Bettendorf (53)

Area Teams
26. Lewis Central (18)
32. Sioux City North (13)
37. CB, Thomas Jefferson (9)
Glenwood (9)
45. Sioux City East (5)

                   THOUGHTS
This should come as no surprise, but Southeast Polk is considered the team to beat in Class 3A. The Rams have won four of the last six team titles and a fifth in seven years appears likely. The Rams will be led by the duo of Lance Runyon and Cade DeVos, but this lineup is stacked practically from top to bottom. If anyone is going to give the Rams a run it appears to be Waverly-Shell Rock. Fort Dodge returns some nice pieces from a state champion dual team and will be led by the beast that is Drake Ayala, but not having a Drew Bennett or Brody Teske in that lineup is a difference maker. Ankeny Centennial is a team that I will be keeping my eye on this season. I was pleasantly surprised to see the Jaguars ranked this high in these rankings, but I understand why they are. Five Centennial wrestlers have received preseason love and this could be a huge year for them.


Lewis Central could be an area team that surprises some people this year. The Titans have two ranked wrestlers, Tanner Wink and Caleb Kingery, but I wouldn't be surprised to see big things from Taber Dominguez or maybe even someone else. Glenwood comes into the season with just one ranked wrestler (Brett Mower), but I know better than to underestimate Coach Brad Asche. CB, Thomas Jefferson is hoping that Cameron Baker can make up for lost time after sitting out last season with an injury. Teammate Jacob Byers has also received some preseason recognition from both IAWrestle and the Predicament. This team could be another pleasant surprise. 



Monday, November 26, 2018

10 biggest questions I have this wrestling season.

Wrestling season is just around the corner and I cannot wait for it. The season will officially start for me in 11 days with the Council Bluffs Classic. I've covered pretty much every high school sport, but wrestling is probably my favorite. Maybe it's because I got my start in broadcasting by calling John J. or maybe it's the atmosphere of a meet. I don't know. 

We are just days away from the journey to Des Moines beginning. I have many questions about the area wrestling that will take place this season, so here are my 10 most pertinent questions (at least to me) about this upcoming season.

1. Is this the year Red Oak qualifies for state duals? 
Words cannot describe how much I admire the job Red Oak Coach Tiegen Podliska has done with his squad. The Tigers had zero state qualifiers in 2016. In 2017, they qualified for a regional dual despite having just one state qualifier. The Tigers broke through in 2018, qualifying for another regional dual, qualifying five to Des Moines and placing two (Justin McCunn and Thomas Bentley). Those five state qualifiers? They all return. I'm not sure there are many (if any) teams in the state that return as many state qualifiers as Red Oak does this year. 

This year they will be led by Thomas Bentley, who has placed fourth and third the past two seasons. It's unclear whether Bentley will wrestle at 182 or 195, but either way, I think he's a championship contender. We should also keep an eye on Justin McCunn and Carter Maynes this season. Last year, McCunn placed eighth at 152 pounds as a sophomore while Maynes was just one win away from joining his teammates on the medal stands. I also expect Colton Kinnison and Jonathan Erp, Red Oak's other two state qualifiers, to pick up where they left off, and I would not be surprised to see someone else breakthrough for Red Oak.

I think I've answered my own question. This is the year Red Oak qualifies for state duals. You can book it.

2. Will anyone be able to take down Gabe Pauley?
AHSTW's Gabe Pauley was a force last year. The bruiser took down everyone in his way on his path to a state championship at 1A-170. Pauley finished his state championship season with a record of 56-0. The most impressive part of his championship campaign is the fact that Pauley did not surrender a takedown until the final period of his state championship victory over Lisbon's Bryce Werderman. Will somebody take down Pauley this season? You would think maybe, but that's a task that it is obviously much easier said than done. Just ask anyone who tried to do it last season.

3. How will Underwood look without Alex Thomsen?
I had the privilege of watching Underwood's Alex Thomsen for the last three season. It was a treat to say the least. The Underwood lightweight capped off his prep career with just one loss and four state championships. Thomsen is now at the University of Nebraska, but the cupboard definitely is not bare at Underwood. Alex's younger brother, Blake comes into his junior year with a pair of state medals including third place at 120 pounds last season. It is unclear what weight he will wrestle at for sure, but he begins the season ranked third at 138 pounds by IAWrestle.  

I have a feeling that fellow lightweight Logan James will come into this season with something to prove. Last year James took home seventh at 132 pounds, but I got the vibe that he was not satisfied with that finish. Nobody can truly replace Alex Thomsen, but I think James has the potential to pretty much pick up right where Thomsen left off. 

Throw Michael Baker into the mix, who qualified at 152 pounds to go along with a pair of district qualifiers (Kyler Rodenburg and Tanner Owens) and I think Underwood will be just fine. 

4. Which Atlantic/CAM wrestler(s) will break through?
I have the feeling that many people are expecting a down year from Atlantic this year. While they have lost some stalwarts like John McConkey, Kole Hansen and Carter Cox over the past few years, I don't think this will be a down year by any means. Actually, I think this could be a year we see a handful of Atlantic wrestlers break through. The Trojans will most likely be led Chase McLaren at 138 pounds, the Grand View commit finished seventh at 132 last season but he has his sights set on bigger goals this season. 

Connor Pellet was a pleasant surprise for Coach Tim Duff's Trojans, earning his way to Des Moines and winning a match before coming up shy of earning a medal. Atlantic will be pretty set in the lightweights this season with Joe Weaver, who wrestled at 106 last season and Aybren Moore at 113. I'm not sure whether those guys will bump up, but I have feeling that those two will pick up where they left off and potentially wind up in Des Moines with a few of their teammates.

5. How much will the area lightweights entertain us?
There were some really good lightweights in our area last year, particularly at 106 and 113 pounds. Kuemper Catholic's Benjamin Schmitz finished third in Class 2A at 106, Mount Ayr's Bryce Shaha got on the medal stand as a freshman at 1A-106 and Tri-Center's Connor Atkisson qualified for state, but came up short of returning to the medal stand. Lewis Central freshman Tanner Wink won a match at the state tournament before bowing out and is just a sophomore this season. You also can't forget about Riverside's John Schroeder, who qualified for districts last season and is ranked eighth at 106 by IAWrestle in their preseason rankings or the aforementioned Joe Weaver from Atlantic/CAM

At 113 pounds, the show was stolen by Logan-Magnolia's Briar Reisz. I don't know that anyone expected Reisz to have the state tournament he did, but he took the state by storm, advancing all the way to the state final before dropping to West Sioux's Adam Allard. Mount Ayr's Trae Ehlen qualified for the state tournament in his freshman campaign and comes into the 2018-19 season ranked eighth at 120 pounds coming into this season. I mentioned Moore earlier and he deserves to be mentioned again. Creston/OM's Kaden Bolton was a state qualifier last year at 120 and is back this year as a sophomore. Lewis Central's Taber Dominguez won the Hawkeye Ten tournament at 113 last year, but he's listed at 126 this season and Missouri Valley's Sam Kyle has received some preseason love, coming into this season ranked 10th at 113 in Class 1A. 

I think it's safe to say the 106-126 range is going to be a ton of fun to watch this year. Given the proximity some of these wrestlers are to each other, I think we are in store for some really good matches and I am going to make three bold predictions', 1) Mount Ayr's Bryce Shaha and Trae Ehlen will both reach the medal stand this season, 2) Briar Reisz will prove that his tournament performance last season was no fluke, 3) Benjamin Schmitz will improve on his third place finish. 


6. Which team's performance will surprise us the most?
As I mentioned earlier, Red Oak has surprised people the past few years, but this year it will only be a surprise if they don't have success and I don't see that happening. So which team will surprise me like Red Oak has the past few years? 

I think the most likely candidate is AHSTW. The Vikings are led by the aforementioned state champion Gabe Pauley, but he was not the only state qualifier for the Vikings last season. The Vikings qualified six for state last season and they return five of them. Not to mention the fact they had a total of 10 district qualifiers. This could be a huge year for Coach Evan McCarthy’s team.

I think you also have to throw Mount Ayr into the mix. The Raiders will be led at the lightweights by Shaha and Ehlen, but they return another state qualifier in Josh Cox at 285, who is ranked fourth by IAWrestle to begin the season. 

        7. Which team will win the John J. Harris Invitational this season? 
The John. J. Harris Invitational in Corning on January 18th & 19th is a tournament that is near and dear to my heart. It's also in my opinion, the most entertaining tournament I cover outside of the CB Classic and obviously the state tournament. An excess of 20 teams take to Corning for this tournament and put on a two-day show that is well worth the price of admission. Creston took home team titles from 2014 to 2016, a stacked New Hampton squad took the crown in 2017, but 2018 belonged to Missouri Valley. This year, the title is completely up for grabs.

Missouri Valley returns some key pieces from last season but they lost their heavy hitters in Nathan Haynes and Tom Rief, but I still expect the Big Red to contend for the team title. As I mentioned earlier, Mount Ayr could surprise some people this year, I would not be surprised to see them compete well, same with Tri-Center and Creston/OM.

However, I think the favorite this year will be Red Oak. I don't think it's crazy to say the Tigers could have five wrestlers competing in the finals, which goes a long ways in a small school tournament like John J.

8. Which non-state qualifiers from last year will wrestle with a vengeance this year?
I always try to pay attention to which wrestlers don't make the state tournament, but have a good shot of getting there the next year. There are a handful of area wrestlers that came up just shy of wrestling in Des Moines that I think are going to be really hungry to get there this season.

Shenandoah heavyweight Tyler Courtier spent most the season ranked at 220 pounds, but finished third in his district to narrowly miss qualifying for state, Courtier comes into his junior campaign ranked sixth at 220 by IAWrestle and will have some extra motivation after coming up short last year.

Fellow heavyweight Thomas Wilson (Southwest Iowa) also qualified for districts, but fell short. This year, the 285-pounder begins the season ranked fifth in Class 2A at 285 pounds. Wilson has been a force on the offensive line in football the past few years. Can he be the same force on the mat this season?

Missouri Valley's Nick Haynes medaled his freshman season, but finished fourth in his district last season and did not qualify for the state tournament. I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that had to be a disappointment to him and will most certainly be his motivation this season. I have a feeling that he will pick up where his brother Nathan left off last season and will finish his season in Des Moines.

9. Which team will win the Hawkeye Ten Tournament? 
The Hawkeye Ten tournament has seen a different champion each of the past three seasons, Creston/OM in 2016, Atlantic in 2017 and Glenwood in 2018. I think there's a really good chance that this year's tournament champion is the fourth different team in as many years. As I've mentioned, I think you have to consider Red Oak as one of the favorites given how much they return from last year, but you cannot sleep on Lewis Central either because the Titans always seem to find a way to perform well at Hawkeye Ten. However, recent champions Creston/OM, Atlantic/CAM and Glenwood cannot be counted out either. Creston was pretty young last year and still showed many signs of promise, Atlantic will reload and Glenwood will do the same after losing a very talented senior class. This tournament will be buckets of fun when these teams take to Shenandoah on January 26th. 

10. What will a seeded state tournament look like?
The 2019 Iowa High School State Wrestling Tournament will be the first under a "seeded" format. The top four wrestlers determined by criteria set by the state will be seeded and put on opposite sides of the brackets to avoid matches occurring prior to the semifinals. The reaction to this announcement was met with mixed reaction. On one hand, you have to win your matches to win a state title regardless of when and where they happen, but I don't know that it's a great idea to have your brackets randomly created and run into the scenario where the top ranked wrestlers are competing in the second round. That problem occurred on multiple occasions last year and I'm sure it's done so many times over the past, it was not the end of the world, but it did raise the question.

This year we should not have to worry about that. Which brings me to my question. State wrestling provides tons of great matches, will seeding the top four in a bracket really make the state tournament that much better or any worse?


Only time will tell. Why don't we just begin the season? 


Thursday, November 8, 2018

Previewing the State Semifinals


331 teams began and now there are only 24. Every team begins their season with the dream of winning a state title but these 24 still have the opportunity to make their dream a reality.


Between Thursday and Saturday, 12 games will take place to determine who will play for a state championship.

Connor Ferguson and I have you covered with everything you need to know about those match-ups.

CLASS 8-MAN
TREVOR: New London (10-1) vs. Fremont-Mills (10-1), Thursday at noon.
BCMoore Projection: Fremont-Mills by 0.15

The 8-Man quarterfinal games were absolutely bananas. Before the playoffs began, I predicted that the dome teams would be Iowa Valley, Don Bosco, Ar-We-Va and Fremont-Mills with Ar-We-Va defeating Don Bosco in the 'ship, as you can see neither one of those two teams made it, but New London and Fremont-Mills did, setting up this coin toss of a matchup. 

New London avenged their lone blemish last week with a 56-20 thrashing of top-ranked Iowa Valley. The Tigers offense has been roaring most the season, scoring 50 points or more in all but two games this season. Their offense has been one of the more balanced in 8-Man. Quarterback Isaac McSorley has thrown for just under 1,200 yards and 20 scores to just six interceptions. The run game has been where the Tigers got to 10-1. They've posted 3,296 rushing yards and 61 touchdowns, those are fifth and third in all of 8-man. McSorley has added 20-touchdowns on the ground to bring his season total to 40. Keontae Luckett has complimented McSorley in the backfield, carrying the rock for 1,335 yards and 22 touchdowns. New London also displayed one of its' best defensive performances of the season last week, holding and Iowa Valley rushing attack that was ranked number one in nearly every statistical category in 8-man to just 150 yards and two scores. That doesn't sound that great, but Iowa Valley was averaging over 350 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground per game. New London has also been greedy on defense, picking off a state high 20 interceptions on the season.

Like New London, Fremont-Mills also gave comeuppance on their lone hiccup last week. The Knights did so with a 61-20 drubbing of Exira-EHK to avenge a week one loss. F-M has been on a mission since week one, winning by an average of 52 points per game. The Knights last five opponents had a combined record of 35-14 and they won those games 62-3, 35-0, 70-18, 61-8 and 61-20. This team has been so darn dominant. Their dominance has been led by the three-headed monster of Mason Vanatta, Seth Malcom and Jaeger Powers. Vanatta, who is also their quarterback, has thrown just under 1000 yards and 13 scores while also rushing for 871 and 22 scores. Seth Malcom has found the end zone 23 times on the ground and has also scored on a fumble recovery and a kick return. The Knights tend to pin their ears back defensively as Coach Jeremy Christensen's team prides themselves on turnovers, forcing 26 turnovers this season.

New London is going to have to use the same formula that they used to beat Iowa Valley. Shut down the run game. However, Fremont-Mills is playing like a team on a mission. If they shut down Vanatta, they have Malcom, if they shut down those two, they still have Powers and I don't think you can shut down all three. I think the Knights are clearly the best team in the state and will flex their muscle while exorcising some demons from years' past.

Prediction: Fremont-Mills 52 New London 22 


CLASS 8-Man
Connor: #10 Rockford (10-1) vs. #6 Southeast Warren, Liberty Center (12-0)
BC Moore Projection: Southeast Warren by 27.13
Date: Thursday November 8 @

Our first matchup of the week features two teams who went on the road last week to win one possession games and earn trips to the UNI-Dome for the semi-finals.

In this matchup, the last remaining undefeated 8-man team in Southeast Warren takes on a Rockford team that is simply on a mission for a state title.

Southeast Warren comes into this one riding the momentum of running back Alex Hommer. In their two playoff wins leading up to this Thursday’s game, Hommer rushed for a combined 235 yards and four touchdowns to help lead his team to victory. That’s not the only weapon they have on the roster either. Quarterback Colby Page has the highest quarterback rating in the state among quarterbacks who have thrown over 150 passes in 2018, according to quikstatsiowa.com. Page also sits at second in the state in passing yards over the course of the season, airing it out for 2,229 yards. Best believe that both of these players will be scampering into the UNI endzones on Thursday.

As for Rockford, they come in as 27.13 underdogs to their undefeated foes, though that isn’t something the Rams should be unfamiliar with. Just a week ago, Rockford would go on the road to face Don Bosco, Gilbertville – a team that beat the Rams in their regular season matchup 80-6. They came out of that game with a lower-scoring, 32-26 win, in large part due to a 211-yard, two-touchdown performance by running back Jacob Staudt. This matchup might not look great for the Rams, but they might just keep on winning. 

Why the heck not?


Prediction: Southeast Warren 40, Rockford 35

CLASS A
TREVOR: West Hancock (9-2) vs. Hudson (11-0), Friday at 10 a.m.
BCMoore Projection: Hudson by 2.43

Both teams comfortably took care of business last weekend. West Hancock downed Akron-Westfield 50-14 while Hudson overcame a slow start to defeat Highland, Riverside 41-14. West Hancock has two blemishes on their resume, one of which was a 7-0 defensive battle with Garner-Hayfield-Ventura, the other was a 28-14 defeat at the hands of Class A quarterfinals Bishop Garrigan. While Hudson, my state title pick at the beginning of the season, went undefeated this season, but that does not mean they weren't tested. They squeaked out two wins by just a single possession. 

West Hancock makes no secret about what they want to do. This is an offense that threw the ball for just 255 yards all year, so I think it's safe to say they are going to run, run, run some more and then probably run again. Their offense has revolved around Tate Hagen, who has 265 totes for 1734 yards and 24 touchdowns. Josef Smith has complimented Hagen in the backfield, rambling for 1,064 yards and 11 touchdowns to the tune of just under nine yards per carry. The interesting part about this team is that their quarterback has not been a dominant part of their running game, rushing for just under 200-yards and two scores all season. Typically teams that don't throw the ball rely on their quarterbacks to carry the rock a lot, but not the Eagles.

As for Hudson, they also rely on the run game, but are more apt to chuck it. Quarterback Jacob Murray threw for just under 1,000 yards and 12 scores. However, the focal point of their offense has undoubtedly been senior running back Christian Seres, who amassed 1,791 rushing yards and scored 28 touchdowns. The Pirates also have a junior by the name of Ethan Fulcher they can turn to. Fulcher amassed 601 yards and nine scores while averaging just under 10 yards a tote. On the defensive side, the Hudson defense has been ever so opportunistic picking off a 11 passes and scooping up 18 fumbles.

To be honest when just doing the ignorant action of stat comparing, I'm surprised that BCMoore only projects Hudson as a two point favorite, but this is why you play the game. West Hancock getting here certainly is not a fluke, but Hudson has shown to be one of the best teams all year and their offense seems to be much more dynamic than West Hancock's

Prediction: Hudson 34 West Hancock 20 


CLASS A
Connor: #9 Edgewood-Colesburg (10-1) vs. #4 Avoca (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Edgewood-Colesburg by 5.14
Date: Friday November 9 @ 1:00 p.m.

Edgewood-Colesburg started off the 2018 high school football season with a 41-20 loss to Class 1A Bellevue. It still stands as the only loss Edgewood-Colesburg has suffered all year. Since then, the Golden Bears have run the table, concluding with a 6-0 win last week against an undefeated Bishop Garrigan.

The touchdown that won the game for the Golden Bears was a pass from quarterback Ethan Streicher to Spencer Staner – a wideout that had just 15 receptions over the season in an offense that didn’t pass much. Nonetheless, the pair found each other to put Edgewood-Colesburg into the Dome.

On the other side of things, Avoca comes into this game in a peculiar situation. They are no strangers to throwing the football, yet in their game against Newman Catholic, quarterback Blake Osbahr went 3-12, throwing for one touchdown and an interception. Osbahr threw for 1,941 yards this year and has a 61.4% completion percentage this year, so they were definitely not used to seeing his final line look like that. Overall though, Avoca moved on with a 17-point win.


Prediction: Edgewood-Colesburg 17, Avoca 10

CLASS 1A
TREVOR: West Sioux (10-1) vs. Van Meter (11-0), Saturday at 1 p.m. 
BCMoore Projection: West Sioux by 2.80

Not very often do a pair of state champions from the previous year meet in the postseason, but this is the case as West Sioux made the move up from Class 1A after winning the state title in Class A a year ago. Van Meter dozed their way to a Class 1A title last year and has dozed over anybody and everybody on their way to Cedar Falls. 

West Sioux had no trouble with the transition from A to 1A, dropping just one game all year, to 2A semifinalists Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley. The Falcons have won 10 in a row since then. The Falcons got to Cedar Fall by riding the cannon of quarterback Hunter Dekkers. Dekkers tossed for just over 3,000 yards and 41 scores this season. Kade Lynott was Dekkers' favorite target amassing 1,314 yards and 17 scores on 66-catches. Lynott also carried the pigskin for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns. Chase Koopmans compliment Lynott in both the rushing and receiving game, tallying just under 1,000 total yards and 18 touchdowns. On the defensive side, the Falcons have been greedy to say the least. Nine defenders have picked off at least one pass. Chase Ranschau leads the team with five picks. 

Van Meter, the defending state champion in Class 1A, has won 24 straight. Their last loss? A 35-14 defeat at the hands of Western Christian in a 2016 state semifinal. The Bulldogs have had a fairly balanced offense this season, led by signal-caller Anthony Potthoff's 20 passing touchdowns, Potthoff has also rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 scores. However, the straw that has stirred the drink for Van Meter has been running back Ian Abrahamson, who tallied 1,890 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. 

This could be the game of the weekend. These two teams have been, at least in my opinion, the top two or three teams in Class 1A. Both offenses are very balanced and it could come down to the quarterback that makes the least amount of mistakes, while the battle between Lynott and Abrahamson promises to provide much excitement and probably many touchdowns. All due respect to Dike-New Hartford and Pella Christian, but I think is essentially your state championship game. Does West Sioux keep their quest alive or does Van Meter garner consecutive win number 25? Should be fun.

Prediction: Van Meter 28 West Sioux 26


CLASS 1A
Connor: #8 Pella Christian (8-3) vs. #6 Dike-New Hartford (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Dike-New Hartford by 20.33
Date: Saturday November 10 @ 10:00 a.m.

I was really excited to get to write about this Class 1A game because I covered the Dike-New Hartford Wolverines game against Interstate 35 last week for 1460 KXnO. It wasn’t much of a game. Dike-New Hartford pulled away early and never looked back, winning 37-0… on the road.

Now, it’s not that the RPI system is bad. In fact, so far I really like it. It provided a lot of great games in the early rounds which is something that hasn’t happened much in recent years. Although, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Dike-New Hartford was heavily underrated.

The Wolverines were the lowest rated undefeated team in their class, and were even rated behind a team that finished 10-1. Not to worry… the Wolverines are here to prove the system wrong.

They’ll be lead to victory by cornerback Parker Kiewiet, who shut down Interstate 35’s top receiver last week and came home with a 48-yard interception. Not to mention Cade Bennett – one of two talented running backs in the Wolverines system that share the same first name – who rushed for 253 yards and three touchdowns for his team a week ago.

For Pella Christian, the Eagles have managed to win nailbiting games each of the past two weeks in order to qualify for the Dome. However, in their only matchup with the I-35 team that DNHHS played last week, Pella Christian was defeated. I think this one’s an easy one to call.

Prediction:  Dike-New Hartford 42, Pella Christian 13

CLASS 2A 
TREVOR: Waukon (10-1) vs. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (10-1), Saturday at 4 p.m.
BCMoore Projection: BHRV by 15.42

This semifinal features a pair of teams that have been accustomed to Cedar Falls. BHRV has been a staple at state football and state basketball for the last decade and are constantly state title contenders. This is not the Parker Hesse' led Waukon Indians but this still a darn good team. That's a good thing because they will have their hands full with BHRV this weekend.

Waukon began the season with a 24-20 loss to Decorah, but has since peeled off 10 straight wins, nine of which came by 10 points or more. The Indians got to Cedar Falls by narrowly defeating Algona 24-21 last week. Dictating the Indians offense has been quarterback Creed Welch (awesome name). Welch threw for 2193 yards and 27 touchdowns. Welch split the wealth this season between receivers Michael Sweeney and Dawson Baures, both receivers hauled in just over 900 receiving yards and caught 11 and 10 touchdowns respectively. Waukon can run it as well, powered by Baures 1,255 yards and 20 scores. On the defensive side, the duo of Avery Rocksvold and Brady Behrend combined to pick off 11-passes. Can they nab one this Saturday?

BHRV will certainly give them a handful of opportunities. Quarterback J.T. Van't Hul hurled for 1,889 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for another 826 yards and 14 scores. Van't Hul has been complimented by a pair of Van Kerix's, Elliott and Brayton who combined for just under 1000 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. BHRV has been propelled by a quadrant of pass catchers, Cody Post leads the team with 696 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Spencer Te Slaa has also added eight receiving touchdowns. 

Both offenses are fairly balanced that center around versatile quarterbacks capable of making just as many plays with their legs as they do with their arms. Watching the two quarterbacks display their athleticism will make this game worth the price of admission. Both teams also rely on solid running games and multiple wide receivers who are more than capable of providing their offenses with a spark. BHRV is projected to be a 15 point favorite, but I could see this one being closer than that, but football is just a different animal in northwest Iowa.

Prediction: BHRV 35 Waukon 22 


CLASS 2A
Connor: #16 West Liberty (8-3) vs. #1 Prairie City-Monroe (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Prairie City Monroe by 23.35
Date: Saturday November 10 @ 7:00 p.m.

In another 16-1 matchup, West Liberty will try to continue the streak they’re running on that has earned them a trip to the UNI-Dome. After a 1-3 start to the year, the Comets have gone on a roll. West Liberty won each of their next seven games, and they’re not just scraping by. Their closest game they’ve played during the win streak was a 27-9 win over Mount Vernon at the start of their streak.

The Comets come into the game lead by dual-threat quarterback Seth Feldman. Along with his 1,485 passing yards and 664 rushing yards this season, Feldman provided the biggest spark on the team in their 42-14 win over #4 Benton.

West Liberty will go up against the top Class 2A team in the state in Prairie City-Monroe. PCM has shown this season that they have the talent to beat anyone, sitting as the only undefeated team in the state. During the regular season, the most points PCM gave up was 18. It wasn’t until a week ago in the second round when Williamsburg put 34 points on the Mustangs that anyone eclipsed the 18-point mark. Nonetheless, PCM put up an impressive 55-point game to advance.

The Mustangs are lead by quarterback Reed Worth who threw for 2,065 yards and rushed for another 832, averaging 8.9 yards per carry this year. Along with his dynamic talents, PCM has got Wes Cummings in the backfield as well. The running back corralled 1,434 yards this season and has been a nightmare for defenses he’s faced this year.

I think if West Liberty plays their cards right, they can keep this one close, but overall PCM seems too good to lose. This one belongs to the Mustangs.


Prediction: Prairie City Monroe 29, West Liberty 18

CLASS 3A
Cedar Rapids, Xavier (11-0) vs. Lewis Central (11-0), Thursday at 8:15 p.m.
BCMoore Projection: CR Xavier by 0.97

Before I dive into this match-up I would like to point out that the fact that these two teams are facing in a semifinal rather than for the championship is dumb, dumb, dumb. I understand that these teams would have to see each other no matter what, but I think the state is missing out on a classic of a state title game. I think it's safe to say this game is probably the defacto state championship game because all year long it’s been clear that these are the top two teams in Class 3A.

The Saints of CR Xavier have rolled into Cedar Falls pitching five shutouts while outscoring opponents 451-40. Quarterback Quinn Schulte contributed in some form for 246 of those points. The senior quarterback threw for 23 touchdowns while also rushing for 18 scores and compiling over 2200 total yards of offense (1532 passing, 696 rushing). The Saints also boast a 1,000 yard rusher in Braden Stovie who carried the rock for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Schulte's favorite pass catcher this year was Kyle Moeder (we're not related). Moeder averaged just under 23 yards-per-catch, compiling 660 yards and eight touchdowns. Matt Jordebrek has also been a trusty option for Schulte. Jordebrek hauled in 14 catches for 276 yards.

I think it's safe to say that Lewis Central might have the best quarterback in the state in quarterback Max Duggan. Duggan, a TCU commit, threw for just under 2000 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, but the most dangerous part of his game is what he can do with his legs. The coach's son has rushed for just under 1,200 yards and 25 touchdowns this season and is coming off a 210-yard, four touchdown rushing effort in a 35-14 state quarterfinal win over Harlan. Running back Brady Miller has also been productive as of late for the Titans and they can also turn to Mike Gittins in the backfield. Duggan's favorite target has been wide receiver Josh Simmons, the senior has hauled in 51 passes for 982 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lewis Central has been just as dominant defensively as CR Xavier, but I think the special teams edge goes to the Titans because they have one of the best kickers in the state, Drake Nettles, who has committed to Iowa State and kicked a state long 54-yard field goal earlier this season.

As I mentioned, it's a shame that the state is being robbed of a potentially classic state title game, but then again half the state can't watch it anyway. BURN. Anyway, comparing these teams and making a prediction is nearly impossible, this is such a toss-up and I firmly believe whoever wins this game will be your state champion. I would not be surprised to be wrong but I have faith in the best quarterback and perhaps the best quarterback in the state.

Prediction: Lewis Central 24 Cedar Rapids, Xavier 21


CLASS 3A
Connor: #13 Western Dubuque (9-2) vs. #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton (10-1)
BC Moore Projection: Western Dubuque by 8.88
Date: Thursday November 8 @ 5:30 p.m.

If there was a prime example to have to point to flaws in the new RPI system that the Iowa High School Football Association uses, it’s this game right here. #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton will play in what is essentially the game between the highest and lowest seeded teams in Class 3A.

The twist is that SBL has one loss under their belts, when both teams in the #2 - #3 game are undefeated at 11-0. That even goes without mentioning the biggest flaw in the system. SBL’s loss came to #2 Council Bluffs Lewis Central by a whopping 28 points. Now, Lewis Central will play a fellow undefeated team in Cedar Rapids Xavier before the state championship.

It’s questionable to say the least, but here we are with a pair of big games coming up in Class 3A on Thursday. SBL’s offense contains two of the best players in Class 3A in junior quarterback Daniel Wright – second in QBR with a 175.2 – and senior halfback Britton Delperdang – second in yards with 1,501 on the year. If both of them are on their game, call BC Moore for the upset alert.

As for the Cinderella story that is Western Dubuque, the Bobcats come in with some impressive accolades. Quarterback Calvin Harris tallied 2,037 yards over the year with almost half of them coming to wide receiver Drake George (937 yards). Also in the backfield are two running backs in Jake Hosch and Ben Bryant who nearly matched each other’s yard totals combining for 1,512 yards. The biggest thing for SBL’s defense is to slow down the running backs. Even though Wright was held to three successful passing attempts last week, the two backs rushed for 307 yards and five touchdowns for a blowout win.


Prediction: Western Dubuque 21, Sergeant Bluff-Luton 20

CLASS 4A
Dowling Catholic (9-2) vs. Bettendorf (10-1), 4 p.m. on Friday 
BCMoore Projection: Dowling by 19.38

There was a time this year where it looked as if Dowling Catholic's bid for a sixth straight state championship was going to come up short, but now I think they have to be considered the favorite. The Maroons avenged an early season loss to Valley, WDM by blowing them out 31-9 last week to push their winning streak to seven in a row. During that span, they have outscored opponents 342 to 29, pitching five shutouts in that time. Their opponent, Bettendorf completed a season sweep of Iowa City, West. Their lone blemish came courtesy of fellow 4A semifinalist Cedar Falls.

Dowling quarterback Zach Watters threw for over 1,100 yards but compiled just eight touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. The focal point of Coach Tom Wilson's offense has been running back Jayson Murray. The speedster averaged just under nine yards per carry while amassing 1,929 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns. He is going to be a huge part of what Dowling does offensively Friday. On the defensive side, they pride themselves on turnovers, picking off 18 passes and scooping up 10 fumbles. The Maroons turned three of those turnovers into scores this season.

Bettendorf has been led by quarterback Carter Bell. The senior signal caller threw for 1,338 yards and 11 touchdowns and rushed for 762 yards and 11 touchdowns. Senior running back Austin Kalar has been the main breadwinner for the Bulldogs this season, running for 1,185 yards and 20 touchdowns. While in the passing game, the Bulldogs rely on six-foot-four wide receiver Darien Porter to find the football and he's done that 27-times for 440 yards and seven touchdowns. They also boast a strong possession receiver in Brandon Tillman, who has corralled 34 passes for 498 yards.

The RPI does not favor Dowling Catholic in this one, but good ol' BCMoore does. The key to this game for Dowling will undoubtedly be Murray. If Bettendorf contains him, they should win. The problem is that nobody has been able to do that so far and I don't think it will happen here. Perhaps Dowling's sixth state championship is just meant to be.

Prediction: Dowling 24 Bettendorf 7

CLASS 4A
Connor: #16 SE Polk (6-5) vs. #3 Cedar Falls (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Cedar Falls by 17.95
Date: Thursday Friday November 9 @ 7:00 p.m.

Still alive and onto the semifinals is the Southeast Polk Rams. They schedule hard, they fight each and every week, and they took down the #1 rated team in the state in the first ever 16-1 upset in the RPI era.

The Rams have used to phenomenal defensive performances to knock off Ankeny Centennial – a team they lost to in the regular season 31-10 – and most recently Johnston. Against the Dragons, SEP earned four interceptions in a combined effort by seniors TJ Armstrong, Daniel Hackbarth (with two picks), and freshman Xavier Nwankpa. That defense is going to be what wins SEP the game if they advance to the title.

For Cedar Falls, it’s all about the offense. The team has not failed to score 28 points during the entirety of the season – though I’m calling for them to due to SEP’s defense this week. SEP will be one of the toughest tests they’ve faced, but Cedar Falls has the players. Wideout Logan Wolf finished with 1,110 yards this season in what has been a dominant year for the senior. Not to mention the rushing performance we saw out of Sam Gary last week. Gary touched the ball 31 times rushing for 225 yards and two scores against the Waukee Warriors – who beat SEP by seven early in the regular season.

As much as I want to scream, “WEST SIDE,” this is where the Rams run comes to an end. CF by two – thanks for reading along with us everyone, I’m thrilled we could make this thing happen. We both owe a lot to the University of Iowa’s journalism program where Trevor and I met. It’s pretty sweet to come away from a journalism camp with lifelong friends and resources you meet and work with along the way. Enjoy the games this weekend.


Prediction: Cedar Falls 19, SEP 17