Thursday, March 29, 2018

2018 MLB Season Preview and Predictions


The Major League Baseball season is just minutes away. I can't wait. I initially planned on doing a complete, in-depth, division-by-division preview for all six divisions. Unfortunately, I'm running out of time to do all six divisions. So let's take a quick look at each division.

We will start with the American League.
AL EAST
The Yankees went out and did what the Yankees do. Spend ridiculous amounts of money on the league's best players. This off-season the Yankees went out and added reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. They also traded for Brandon Drury and have plenty of young talent on their roster such as Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. They also have two of baseballs top prospects, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, both of whom will likely be called up at some point this season. The Red Sox are just about as loaded as the Yankees. They went out and added J.D Martinez, who is coming off the best year of his career. Chris Sale was brilliant on the mound last year and David Price was OK in an injury-shortened season. The Blue Jays were a disappointment last season, but they added a couple new pieces and have the potential to improve. The Orioles pitching staff was way too inconsistent for them to be trusted and it appears the Rays are trying to tank after trading away Evan Longoria and Steven Souza this offseason.

PREDICTION
1: New York
2: Boston
3: Toronto
4: Baltimore
5: Tampa Bay

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
This could be a virtual coin-flip between the Red Sox and Yankees. Both teams are so darn loaded, but I think the Yankees are a bit more loaded. They also have a lot of pop in their lineup and play in a ballpark that can allow them to hit a ton of home runs, which can win them games. I think Blue Jays were too inconsistent last year, but I see them winning somewhere around 80. I don't trust the Orioles or Rays to do much.

AL WEST
This division boasts the best player in baseball (Mike Trout) and the reigning World Champions (Houston Astros). The Astros have a legitimate shot to repeat as World Champs this season. They lost virtually nobody from last season and added Gerrit Cole to an already stellar pitching staff. The Angels made some nice acquisitions as well bringing in Zach Cozart, who's coming off the best year of his career. The Angels also signed Japanese Shohei Ohtani who is expected to pitch and play in the outfield. Ohtani has struggled in spring training, but if finds his rhythm, he and Trout could make a dangerous one-two punch. The Rangers are a difficult team to wrap my head around. They are getting older and finished below 500, that's not a good recipe for a bounce-back. The Mariners have some solid pieces and they went out and added Dee Gordon. The A's could also see an improvement as well.

PREDICTION
1: Houston
2: Los Angeles
3: Seattle
4: Texas 
5: Oakland

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
The Astros are so darn loaded again this year. They have one of the best rotations in baseball and a lot of really good hitters in their lineup, barring a ton of injuries, I don't see them not winning the division. The Angels will finish second if Shohei Ohtani lives up to his potential and Zack Cozart plays like he did last season. I don't see anything from the Mariners, Rangers or Athletics that screams to me they will contend.

AL CENTRAL
Last year, many people expected the Indians to win it all, but they choked against the Yankees in the ALDS. This is for the most part, the same Indians team. I think Francisco Lindor has a legit shot at being the AL MVP and Corey Kluber is coming off a Cy Young Award-winning season. The Twins shocked many people (not me) by making the Wild Card last year. I am a lot higher on the Twins than I should be. This is a team that has tons of young talent such as Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton. Their biggest liability is their pitching staff, which I think got slightly better with the addition of Lance Lynn. The White Sox also have solid pieces and this might be the year we start to see what they are capable of in the future. The Royals are halfway trying to tank and have some veteran pop in their lineup and their rotation might be better than people expect. I don't expect the Tigers to do anything.

PREDICTION
1: Minnesota
2: Cleveland
3: Chicago
4: Kansas City
5: Detroit

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
I think this is the Twins year to breakthrought, the pieces are there and they were a young team last year. They are still young, but they got older and more experienced. As for the Indians, I sense some sort of letdown this season. The White Sox will most likely hang around 80 to 84 wins, I expect big things from Lucas Giolito this year and who knows when we will see Eloy Jiminez crack the lineup. I was torn between putting the Royals or Tigers fourth, but I think the Royals can pull enough wins from Detroit to finish fourth with let's say 75 wins. 

AL WILD CARDS: BOSTON AND LOS ANGELES
Hear me out on this, last year's playoff teams were; Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins. I don't think that all five of those teams will make the playoffs again and as I mentioned, I think the Indians will regress this season. I like what the Angels did this offseason and Mike Trout is the best and whoever finishes second in the AL East be it Boston or New York will most likely be a wildcard.

AL Wild Card Prediction: Boston over Los Angeles 

ALDS: Houston over Boston, New York over Minnesota

ALCS: New York over Houston

AL MVP: Carlos Correa, Shortstop, Houston

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Boston

AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Outfielder/Pitcher, Los Angeles


Now let's roll with the National League.

NL East
The Nationals are really loaded this year and it could be the bands' last year together because Bryce Harper is almost certainly going to become a free agent next offseason and will demand a lot money. Max Scherzer is looking to join Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux as the only pitchers to win three-straight Cy Young Awards. Stephen Strasburg had the best year of his career last year and they weren't even 100% healthy in 2017 but still ran away with the division. I really like the Phillies this season, they have a young roster full of talented players such as J.P Crawford, Odubel Herrera and Scott Kingery. Their rotation is also young, but they just went out and added Jake Arrieta. The Mets were plagued by injuries last year, Syndergaard failed to stay healthy and they got older this year adding Adrian Gonzalez in the field and Jason Vargas on the mound. The Braves have some young talent but I just don't think they are there yet while the Marlins are trying to trade everyone.

PREDICTION
1: Washington 
2: Philadelphia
3: New York
4: Atlanta
5: Miami

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
The Nationals are way too darn loaded to not win the division, barring a ton of injuries, they should cruise to the division title. Second, third and fourth could be pretty interchangeable, but I think the Phillies will show promise, the Mets will be more consistent than they were last year and the Braves just aren't there yet. The Marlins will have the worst record in baseball this year. 

NL WEST
This might be the best division in baseball from top to bottom. The Dodgers are loaded, but they didn't really add anything that makes them better than they were last season. The Rockies have a ton of power in their lineup and play in a ballpark that welcomes that. The Diamondbacks are a question mark to me, they lost J.D. Martinez, who had a career year in 2017. I want to see if the "Humidor" actually has an impact on their home-run ability this season. The Giants went out and added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria, but they just lost Madison Baumgarner for the first two months of the season. The Padres added Eric Hosmer and have lots of young talent, but like the Braves, I'm not sure they are quite there yet. 

PREDICTION
1: Los Angeles
2: Colorado
3: Arizona
4: San Francisco
5: San Diego

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
The Dodgers are loaded. Barring a ton of injuries, I don't see them not winning the division. Clayton Kershaw is pitching so good this spring training that its' scary. The Rockies will hit lots of home-runs, but their piching is a big question this season. The Diamondbacks have enough to finish third with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, I might have put the Giants third if not for the MadBum injury. The Padres will win some games and impress, but this is just too tough a division for me to expect them to finish any better than last.

NL CENTRAL
I find this a really interesting division to dissect. The smart money would tell you that the Cubs are the favorite and they probably are. I really like what the Brewers are doing and I think they have a legitimate shot at grabbing a Wild Card spot. The Cardinals have gotten younger, I want to see what Paul DeJong can do at shortstop and I expect big things from him this season. The Reds have an ample amount of young talent and some pieces that I like, but they aren't quite there yet. The Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen and will probably stink this year.

PREDICTION
1: Chicago 
2: St. Louis
3: Milwaukee
4: Cincinnati
5: Pittsburgh

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY
As I write this, the Cardinals are nearing a deal with Greg Holland. That might change some people's minds, but I still trust the Cubs to get it done even though they lost Arrieta. Some people might think the Brewers are the second best team in this division, but I think the Cardinals are better. I trust the young talent of the Reds to beat the Pirates attempt to tank. 

NL WILD CARDS: ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO
The Cardinals have missed the postseason the last two seasons, I don't foresee that happening for the third year in a row. They have plenty of talent around them to turn some heads. The other wildcard spot is a toss-up, I was torn between the Rockies, Brewers and Phillies, but I think the Rockies are the most talented team.

NL Wild Card Prediction: St. Louis over Colorado 

NLDS: Los Angeles over St. Louis, Washington over Chicago

NLCS: Washington over Los Angeles

NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Washington

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles

NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna, Outfielder, Atlanta

World Series Prediction: Washington over New York








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