2018 MLB Season Preview and Predictions

The Major League Baseball season is just minutes away. I can't wait. I initially planned on doing a complete, in-depth, division-by-division preview for all six divisions. Unfortunately, I'm running out of time to do all six divisions. So let's take a quick look at each division.

We will start with the American League.

AL EAST

The Yankees went out and did what the Yankees do. Spend ridiculous amounts of money on the league's best players. This off-season the Yankees went out and added reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. They also traded for Brandon Drury and have plenty of young talent on their roster such as Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. They also have two of baseballs top prospects, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, both of whom will likely be called up at some point this season. The Red Sox are just about as loaded as the Yankees. They went out and added J.D Martinez, who is coming off the best year of his career. Chris Sale was brilliant on the mound last year and David Price was OK in an injury-shortened season. The Blue Jays were a disappointment last season, but they added a couple new pieces and have the potential to improve. The Orioles pitching staff was way too inconsistent for them to be trusted and it appears the Rays are trying to tank after trading away Evan Longoria and Steven Souza this offseason.

PREDICTION

1: New York

2: Boston

3: Toronto

4: Baltimore

5: Tampa Bay

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

This could be a virtual coin-flip between the Red Sox and Yankees. Both teams are so darn loaded, but I think the Yankees are a bit more loaded. They also have a lot of pop in their lineup and play in a ballpark that can allow them to hit a ton of home runs, which can win them games. I think Blue Jays were too inconsistent last year, but I see them winning somewhere around 80. I don't trust the Orioles or Rays to do much.

AL WEST

This division boasts the best player in baseball (Mike Trout) and the reigning World Champions (Houston Astros). The Astros have a legitimate shot to repeat as World Champs this season. They lost virtually nobody from last season and added Gerrit Cole to an already stellar pitching staff. The Angels made some nice acquisitions as well bringing in Zach Cozart, who's coming off the best year of his career. The Angels also signed Japanese Shohei Ohtani who is expected to pitch and play in the outfield. Ohtani has struggled in spring training, but if finds his rhythm, he and Trout could make a dangerous one-two punch. The Rangers are a difficult team to wrap my head around. They are getting older and finished below 500, that's not a good recipe for a bounce-back. The Mariners have some solid pieces and they went out and added Dee Gordon. The A's could also see an improvement as well.

PREDICTION

1: Houston

2: Los Angeles

3: Seattle

4: Texas 

5: Oakland

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

The Astros are so darn loaded again this year. They have one of the best rotations in baseball and a lot of really good hitters in their lineup, barring a ton of injuries, I don't see them not winning the division. The Angels will finish second if Shohei Ohtani lives up to his potential and Zack Cozart plays like he did last season. I don't see anything from the Mariners, Rangers or Athletics that screams to me they will contend.

AL CENTRAL

Last year, many people expected the Indians to win it all, but they choked against the Yankees in the ALDS. This is for the most part, the same Indians team. I think Francisco Lindor has a legit shot at being the AL MVP and Corey Kluber is coming off a Cy Young Award-winning season. The Twins shocked many people (not me) by making the Wild Card last year. I am a lot higher on the Twins than I should be. This is a team that has tons of young talent such as Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton. Their biggest liability is their pitching staff, which I think got slightly better with the addition of Lance Lynn. The White Sox also have solid pieces and this might be the year we start to see what they are capable of in the future. The Royals are halfway trying to tank and have some veteran pop in their lineup and their rotation might be better than people expect. I don't expect the Tigers to do anything.

PREDICTION

1: Minnesota

2: Cleveland

3: Chicago

4: Kansas City

5: Detroit

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

I think this is the Twins year to breakthrought, the pieces are there and they were a young team last year. They are still young, but they got older and more experienced. As for the Indians, I sense some sort of letdown this season. The White Sox will most likely hang around 80 to 84 wins, I expect big things from Lucas Giolito this year and who knows when we will see Eloy Jiminez crack the lineup. I was torn between putting the Royals or Tigers fourth, but I think the Royals can pull enough wins from Detroit to finish fourth with let's say 75 wins. 

AL WILD CARDS: BOSTON AND LOS ANGELES

Hear me out on this, last year's playoff teams were; Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins. I don't think that all five of those teams will make the playoffs again and as I mentioned, I think the Indians will regress this season. I like what the Angels did this offseason and Mike Trout is the best and whoever finishes second in the AL East be it Boston or New York will most likely be a wildcard.

AL Wild Card Prediction: Boston over Los Angeles 

ALDS: Houston over Boston, New York over Minnesota

ALCS: New York over Houston

AL MVP: Carlos Correa, Shortstop, Houston

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Boston

AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Outfielder/Pitcher, Los Angeles

Now let's roll with the National League.

NL East

The Nationals are really loaded this year and it could be the bands' last year together because Bryce Harper is almost certainly going to become a free agent next offseason and will demand a lot money. Max Scherzer is looking to join Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux as the only pitchers to win three-straight Cy Young Awards. Stephen Strasburg had the best year of his career last year and they weren't even 100% healthy in 2017 but still ran away with the division. I really like the Phillies this season, they have a young roster full of talented players such as J.P Crawford, Odubel Herrera and Scott Kingery. Their rotation is also young, but they just went out and added Jake Arrieta. The Mets were plagued by injuries last year, Syndergaard failed to stay healthy and they got older this year adding Adrian Gonzalez in the field and Jason Vargas on the mound. The Braves have some young talent but I just don't think they are there yet while the Marlins are trying to trade everyone.

PREDICTION

1: Washington 

2: Philadelphia

3: New York

4: Atlanta

5: Miami

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

The Nationals are way too darn loaded to not win the division, barring a ton of injuries, they should cruise to the division title. Second, third and fourth could be pretty interchangeable, but I think the Phillies will show promise, the Mets will be more consistent than they were last year and the Braves just aren't there yet. The Marlins will have the worst record in baseball this year. 

NL WEST

This might be the best division in baseball from top to bottom. The Dodgers are loaded, but they didn't really add anything that makes them better than they were last season. The Rockies have a ton of power in their lineup and play in a ballpark that welcomes that. The Diamondbacks are a question mark to me, they lost J.D. Martinez, who had a career year in 2017. I want to see if the "Humidor" actually has an impact on their home-run ability this season. The Giants went out and added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria, but they just lost Madison Baumgarner for the first two months of the season. The Padres added Eric Hosmer and have lots of young talent, but like the Braves, I'm not sure they are quite there yet. 

PREDICTION

1: Los Angeles

2: Colorado

3: Arizona

4: San Francisco

5: San Diego

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

The Dodgers are loaded. Barring a ton of injuries, I don't see them not winning the division. Clayton Kershaw is pitching so good this spring training that its' scary. The Rockies will hit lots of home-runs, but their piching is a big question this season. The Diamondbacks have enough to finish third with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, I might have put the Giants third if not for the MadBum injury. The Padres will win some games and impress, but this is just too tough a division for me to expect them to finish any better than last.

NL CENTRAL

I find this a really interesting division to dissect. The smart money would tell you that the Cubs are the favorite and they probably are. I really like what the Brewers are doing and I think they have a legitimate shot at grabbing a Wild Card spot. The Cardinals have gotten younger, I want to see what Paul DeJong can do at shortstop and I expect big things from him this season. The Reds have an ample amount of young talent and some pieces that I like, but they aren't quite there yet. The Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen and will probably stink this year.

PREDICTION

1: Chicago 

2: St. Louis

3: Milwaukee

4: Cincinnati

5: Pittsburgh

WHY THEY WILL FINISH THIS WAY

As I write this, the Cardinals are nearing a deal with Greg Holland. That might change some people's minds, but I still trust the Cubs to get it done even though they lost Arrieta. Some people might think the Brewers are the second best team in this division, but I think the Cardinals are better. I trust the young talent of the Reds to beat the Pirates attempt to tank. 

NL WILD CARDS: ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO

The Cardinals have missed the postseason the last two seasons, I don't foresee that happening for the third year in a row. They have plenty of talent around them to turn some heads. The other wildcard spot is a toss-up, I was torn between the Rockies, Brewers and Phillies, but I think the Rockies are the most talented team.

NL Wild Card Prediction: St. Louis over Colorado 

NLDS: Los Angeles over St. Louis, Washington over Chicago

NLCS: Washington over Los Angeles

NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Washington

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles

NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna, Outfielder, Atlanta

World Series Prediction: Washington over New York

My Official March Madness Bracket

LET THE MADNESS BEGIN!

http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/03/five-first-roun-games-im-most-excited.html
http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/03/seven-mid-majors-that-could-pull-off.html

I wish I could say I'm sorry for the March Madness overload, but I'm really not. I love college basketball, especially in March, so I have to write about it. I always fill out more than one bracket, but I have one that is near and dear to my heart. So here is my "Official" March Madness Bracket

                                                                       Play-In Games
                                                     East 

#11 St. Bonaventure over UCLA

The Bonnies are an intriguing team, they have a solid one-two punch in Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley and have won 13 of their last 14. I did not even feel UCLA should be in the tournament because the Pac 12 was god awful. I'm taking the Bonnies.

#16 Radford over LIU-Brooklyn

I would be lying if I said I knew a ton about either of these teams, but LIU-Brooklyn is terrible defensively (295th most efficient according to Ken Pomeroy). I'm taking Radford in this one.

                                                                               Midwest

                                                       #11 Syracuse over Arizona State

Neither one of these teams should be in the tournament in the first place, but Syracuse plays in the ACC, so they have to have a good resume and Arizona State beat Xavier and Kansas when college football was more important. Arizona State has struggled down the stretch. I'm reluctantly taking Syracuse.

       West

#16 Texas Southern over North Carolina Central

Neither one of these teams are good on defense, and Texas Southern is better offensively and they have the more athletic team. Whoever wins this will get Xavier anyways.

          ROUND OF 64

       South Region

#1 Virginia over #16 Maryland-Baltimore County

This is the best Virginia team, we've seen. I don't know if that means anything but I'm just spewing out facts. I think UMBC can keep up with them for awhile because Virginia's pace allows that, but I'm taking the Cavs in this one.

#8 Creighton over Kansas State

This has the potential to be the best game of the first round. Creighton's Marcus Foster looks to defeat his former team and Creighton is a streaky team. Same could be said for Kansas State, but their two best players; Dean Wade and Barry Brown have been dinged up. Sounds like they both will play, but I'm taking Creighton.

#5 Kentucky over #12 Davidson

If it was any other five seed, I might pick Davidson to pull off the upset. I really like Davidson, but I like Kentucky more.

#4 Arizona over #13 Buffalo

I don't see a scenario where the Wildcats lose, they are playing too darn good and Deandre Ayton might be the best player in the nation, however, it would be the most Arizona thing ever to get ousted in the first round.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami

UPSET NUMBER ONE!. Missouri Valley teams historically do well in the tourney (most of them have been Creighton or Wichita State). The Ramblers are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and the Hurricanes are dinged up.

#3 Tennessee over #14 Wright State 

Tennessee is a team that could make a deep run or get ousted early. I'm not sure which, but I think they have enough to get past Wright State.

#10 Texas over Nevada

I'm going to go with Texas even though I'm not convinced that Mo Bamba is 100% healthy. Nevada's offense is pretty good, but they just got smoked by San Diego State and Texas' defense is perhaps underrated. Hook'em Horns, you'll never hear me say that again.

#2 Cincinnati over #15 Georgia State

I think this is the most likely of the 15 over 2 scenarios, but I think Cincinnati is good enough to scrape by even without Jacob Evans, but I expect Georgia State to keep it interesting. 

West Region

#1 Xavier over #16 Texas Southern

Xavier is the weakest of the top seeds, but I don't think they are weak enough to drop to Texas Southern because I think this matchup favors Xavier.

#8 Missouri over Florida State

Michael Porter, Jr. returned in the SEC Tournament against Georgia and he was not good, but neither was most of the team. Missouri has the makings of a team that could be dangerous. Porter will have had a full week to rest. I'm not sold on Florida State. I'll take Mizzou in this one.

#12 South Dakota State over #5 Ohio State

Ohio State has not been there with this team. This is a vulnerable matchup for them. I'll take Mike Daum, David Jenkins, and Reed Tellinghuisen to pull off the upset. 

#4 Gonzaga over #13 UNC-Greensboro

I personally thought Gonzaga should be a three seed, but they are a four. I like what the 'Zags have this year with Johnathan Williams, Killian Tillie and Josh Perkins. They are balanced, with five players scoring 11 PPG or more. I would not be greatly surprised if UNC-Greensboro pulls off the upset due to their defensive abilities, but I'm not sure they can score enough.

#6 Houston over #11 San Diego State

Houston is a sneaky six seed. Rob Gray is one of, if not the best player in the American Athletic Conference. Houston is an incredibly balanced team with the 31st most efficient offense and 20th most efficient defense according to Ken Pomeroy. San Diego State caught lightning in a bottle during the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

#3 Michigan over #14 Montana

I've heard some people picking the upset on this one, and I understand it. Michigan has not played a game since March 4th so they could be rusty, but that could also mean they are fresh. They have an experienced team with Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman, so they should be just fine. 

                                                     #10 Providence over #7 Texas A&M

As I wrote earlier today, this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. Providence beat Xavier and took Villanova to overtime last week while Texas A&M is super talented, but has struggled to be consistent. I'm trusting Ed Cooley and Providence in this one. This is a scary 10 seed.

#2 North Carolina over #15 Lipscomb

As cool as it would be to see Lipscomb win a game in their first ever tournament appearance, North Carolina is just playing too darn good right now to get upset....in the first round.

                                                                        East Region

#1 Villanova over #16 Radford

No chance a 16 seed that has to play on Tuesday night, travel again and then play Villanova two days later pulls off the upset.

#9 Alabama over #8 Virginia Tech

We can argue until we are blue in the face about whether or not Alabama deserves to be in, but they are and Collin Sexton has the ability to take over games. The difference in this game is the three-point shot. Virginia Tech shoots the three ball pretty well, while Alabama does not. But Alabama defends the three really well while Virginia Tech does not. So I'll bank on Collin Sexton.

#5 West Virginia over #12 Murray State

Murray State is a really good shooting team, but Bob Huggins does a great job of making shooting teams uncomfortable. I'll take West Virginia.

#13 Marshall over #4 Wichita State

This is the game I'm the most excited for. These are two teams that have high powered offenses and don't play a ton of defense. If the combined score of this game is less than 150, I'll be stunned. I'm trusting the guard play of John Elmore and C.J Burks to pull off the upset.

#6 Florida over #11 St. Bonaventure

Florida has failed to live up to their potential this season, but I have a gut feeling they have enough to get by the Bonnies. If they gel at the right time, I think they could make a deep run.

#3 Texas Tech over #14 Stephen F. Austin 

I almost took the upset here because I'm not convinced Keenan Evans is 100 percent healthy, but he's been playing pretty darn good lately. I trust Chris Beard and you should too.

#10 Butler over #7 Arkansas

The last time I saw Butler, they were getting spanked by Villanova, but they have a weird tendency to shoot the lights out and I don't trust Arkansas.

#2 Purdue over #15 Cal-State Fullerton

Last year I was real high on Purdue and it backfired. This year, I'm not quite as high, but I think they handle Cal-State Fullerton with ease.

Midwest Region

#1 Kansas over #16 Pennsylvania

If there is ever a 16 seed that could beat a one seed, it is Penn. Who I think should have been a 14 or 15. If there is ever a 1 seed that could lose, it is this year's Kansas team, who has let teams hang around all year and has not blown a lot of teams out, especially late in the season. I think Penn keeps it close for most the game, but I think the Jayhawks pull away late and win by 12 or so. Or at least I hope. 

#8 Seton Hall over #9 North Carolina State 

North Carolina State lost to Boston College in the ACC Tournament, so it's hard for me to trust them. I think Seton Hall is the more talented team regardless of whether or not Desi Rodriguez is healthy.

                                                #12 New Mexico State over #5 Clemson

I really like New Mexico State, Clemson has been consistent all year, even without their best player, Donte Grantham, but Clemson has not been in the tournament and I feel like those types of teams can be vulnerable. Plus I really like Zach Lofton and Jemerrio Jones.

                                                   #4 Auburn over #13 Charleston
Auburn is a tough team to disect. They started out 21-2 and finished the season 4-5. Meanwhile,  Charleston has two scorers who average over 18.0 PPG; Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. I would not be surprised if they pull off the upset, but I'm reluctantly picking Auburn.

#11 Syracuse over #6 TCU

Here I am bashing Syracuse, but I picked them to win a game. Hear me out, teams that usually have no business making the tournament tend to try proving people wrong by winning a game or two. TCU has not been the same team since losing Jaylen Fisher this season. Syracuse's zone could cause troubles.

#3 Michigan State over #14 Bucknell

Bucknell has been a popular pick by some to pull off the upset and I can see why. They've done it before (remember Kansas fans?).  I think the extra time off could have helped Michigan State get rested. 

                                                    #7 Rhode Island over #10 Oklahoma

Oklahoma is in the tournament because the selection committee is in love with Trae Young, one of the most overrated players in college basketball. Rhode Island is a balanced team led by the veteran experience of E.C. Matthews. I'm taking the Rams to expose the flaws of Oklahoma.

#2 Duke over #15 Iona

This is a Duke team that has the talent to win it all but has played inconsistent enough that they could get beat in the first round. I'm trusting Coach K to get them past the Gaels and into the Round of 32.

ROUND OF 32

South Region

#1 Virginia over #8 Creighton.

I think Virginia's defense will give Creighton's offense fits. Creighton relies heavily on the three and Virginia defends the three really good. Well, actually they defend just about everything really good.

#5 Kentucky over #4 Arizona

I have gone back and forth on this game 100 times. Arizona has the best player in the nation, but Kentucky is playing so darn good and I think John Calipari is a much better coach than Sean Miller. This game could be the best of the second round and could decide who makes the Final Four.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #3 Tennessee

The glass slipper still fits for the Ramblers, Tennessee is not a team that I'm completely sold on and the Ramblers shoot the ball really well. It's hard to defend good shooting.

#2 Cincinnati over #10 Texas 

Cincinnati's defense will give Texas fits, who I believe is pretty much a one-trick pony with Mo Bamba.

                                                                      West Region

#8 Missouri over #1 Xavier

Missouri is definitely the most dangerous 8 seed and Xavier is the most vulnerable 1 seed. Assuming that Michael Porter. Jr is healthy and they get past Florida State, I think Missouri can give Xavier troubles. They have talent around Porter such as Jontay Porter and Kassius Robertson that can also pull off the upset. 

#3 Michigan over #6 Houston

I nearly picked Houston to pull off the upset, but Michigan is playing too darn good and is way too balanced for the Cougars. 

#10 Providence over #2 North Carolina

Bare with me on this, these two teams have met in the NCAA Tournament twice in the last five years. North Carolina won both of them, one by two and the other time by 20. This Providence team has shown they can toe to toe with Xavier and Villanova. North Carolina is playing a lot better but I'm still not sold on The Tar Heels being able to stay consistent. 

                                                                             East Region

#1 Villanova over #9 Alabama

All Alabama really has is Collin Sexton and I'm not convinced that is enough to get them past Villanova.

#5 West Virginia over #13 Marshall

I'm guessing the entire state of West Virginia would be watching this matchup if it were to happen. I would love to see John Elmore vs. Jevon Carter. It would be fantastic. These would be too contrast playing styles. I trust Bob Huggins more than I do Dan D'Antoni even though this is not his best West Virginia team.

#3 Texas Tech over #6 Florida

I liked Florida so much early in the season that I picked them as my pre-season champion. When they are on, they can beat just about anyone in the nation, but consistency has been a problem for them this year and I think Texas Tech will feast on that.

#2 Purdue over #10 Butler

I nearly picked Butler to pull the upset. These two teams met earlier this year and Purdue won by 15. Purdue shoots the three-ball too darn well (2nd in the country) and Butler has been a Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde team this year.

Midwest Region

#1 Kansas over #8 Seton Hall

I like Seton Hall a lot, but I don't know if they can shoot well enough to get by Kansas. Jayhawks advance to the Elite Eight.

#12 New Mexico State over #4 Auburn

New Mexico State to the Sweet Sixteen! I think the Aggies have the weapons and the bracket that gives them the ability to do it. I'm just not sold on Auburn. I don't think they are a strong four seed. New Mexico State capitalizes on that.

#3 Michigan State over #11 Syracuse

Michigan State makes Syracuse look silly. Enough said. Syracuse gets exposed

#2 Duke over #7 Rhode Island

The Round of 32 has been kryptonite for Duke in recent memory and I could see Rhode Island pulling off the upset, but this Duke team is way too talented for me to blatantly predict it.

SWEET SIXTEEN

South Region

#5 Kentucky over #1 Virginia

This bracket is the one that has given me the biggest headache. I love the way Virginia plays but it does not transition come tournament time and it just came out that DeAndre Hunter is out for the season with a broken wrist. Losing him is key for the Cavaliers and I think Kentucky can capitalize on his abscence. 

#2 Cincinnati over #11 Loyola-Chicago

The clock strikes midnight for the Cinderella Ramblers. They shoot the ball incredibly well, but Cincinnati defends incredibly well and is more talented. I think that wins out.

West Region

#4 Gonzaga over #8 Missouri

Last year everyone loved Gonzaga. This year, everyone has looked past them. Maybe they like it that way, but I think the 'Zags have the pieces to make it to the Elite Eight and will do so in a wonky bracket.

#3 Michigan over #10 Providence

I want to see Ed Cooley coach in the Final Four so badly, but this Michigan team looks too darn good and too experienced.

East Region

#1 Villanova over #5 West Virginia

This game could be very intriguing, but I think that Jay Wright is smart enough to crack the West Virginia defense and advance to the Elite Eight.

#3 Purdue over #2 Texas Tech

Another intriguing matchup, but I think the matchup favors Purdue. This is a team that has size and can shoot well.

Midwest Region

#1 Kansas over #12 New Mexico State

It would be such a Kansas thing to get upset by New Mexico State and I would laugh, but I've said since the bracket came out that if Kansas won in the first round, they'd make the Elite Eight. Here they are.

#2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

These two teams met to kick off the season. I said then that I thought Duke was a young team, Michigan State would win and that if they met in March, Duke would be the favorite. Well on that night, Grayson Allen had a career night and Duke won without Marvin Bagley. I think Duke is the better team. I'm picking the better team.

ELITE EIGHT

South Region

#5 Kentucky over #2 Cincinnati

These two schools are separated by 90 miles and could bring a lot of fans to Atlanta. Kentucky is such a good offensive team, while Cincinnati is equally as good on defense. Cincinnati is no slouch on offense, nor is Kentucky defensively. I'm trusting the raw talent of Kentucky and the experience of John Calipari to defeat Cincinnati and advance to the Final Four.

West Region

#3 Michigan over #4 Gonzaga

I am not super convinced with this prediction. Actually, this is the one I'm the least confident in, but I'm a believer that how you finish the season means something. Michigan has won nine in a row coming into the tournament. This team has the makings of a Final Four team and they have many pieces back from last year's Sweet Sixteen team.

East Region

#1 Villanova over #2 Purdue

These are two of the best offenses in college basketball. This could be a great back and forth game, but I'm trusting that Villanova is the better team and that will mean something.

Midwest Region

#2 Duke over #1 Kansas

Is it really the Elite Eight if Kansas does not lose? We have not seen Kansas this year, so it's difficult to see how these two matchup against each other. Both teams started out the season by struggling on defense. Duke improved as the season went on, Kansas did not. I'm taking Duke to the Final Four.

My Final Four: Kentucky, Michigan, Villanova and Duke 

FINAL FOUR

Kentucky over Michigan

I am not sure what is about this season's Kentucky team, but it reminds me an awful lot of the 2014 team that made a run to the title game as an 8 seed. I think this year's team is capable of doing that and will do so.

 Villanova over Duke

I have been wanting to see this matchup for the past few seasons. Last year, they were put in the same region, but both got upset in the second round. I like Duke a lot, but Villanova has been more consistent all season and I think their consistency propels them into the 'ship.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Villanova over Kentucky

While many people think that Virginia is the best team in the country, I think that Villanova is the safest team. They don't have any serious flaws and in a perfect world, that would result in a second title in three years for Jay Wright. I understand this is not a perfect world and crazy stuff happens in March, but I have to pick somebody and they make me the least nervous. But they still make me nervous.

So there you go, a 3,330-word prediction of my official bracket. You can just go ahead and use this bracket if you want. I only ask that you split your winnings. Just Kidding! Gambling is bad, so don't do it! 

Five First Round Games I'm the Most Excited For.

It is almost time! My favorite time of the year. The first four-days of March Madness (Thursday and Friday in particular) are my favorite days in all of sports. During this time, I get little to nothing done while there is basketball on and do not expect this year to be any different. With that being said, here are the five games that I'm the most excited for.

#5 South Region- #2 Cincinnati vs. #15 Georgia State             

(Friday 1 p.m. on TBS) 

The last time Georgia State was in the dance, they upset Baylor thanks to an R.J. Hunter three that led to his father literally falling out of his chair. R.J is not there anymore, but his father Ron is still the head coach at Georgia State and he is great. A major program should hire him immediately. The Panthers went through a rough stretch in February but they've since bounced back and are playing extremely well. They are led by Sun Belt Conference player of the year, D'Marcus Simonds (21.0 PPG).

On the flipside, Cincinnati is a Final Four caliber team. They play shutdown defense (ranked 2nd by Ken Pomeroy) and can combat their shutdown defense with streaky offense. The caveat for the Bearcats is that they are going to be without their second-leading scorer, Jacob Evans (12.9 PPG). I believe Cincinnati is a deep and talented enough team to prevail, but they haven't been seeded this high in recent memory, they are without one of, if not their best player and they are a facing a team who has played Cinderella before. I think Cincinnati wins, but this is the most likely 15 over 2 upset.

#4 Midwest Region- #16 Pennsylvania vs. #1 Kansas

(Thursday 1 p.m. on TBS)

This game falls in the same boat. Pennsylvania might be the best 16 seed I can think of in recent memory. I was a bit surprised that they were a 16 seed, I expected them to be a 14 or 15, but the committee is dumb, we know that already. As I mentioned in a previous blog, Ivy League teams are tough because they are smart and fundamentally sound on defense. The Quakers are balanced offensively as well with four players averaging double-digits, Ryan Betley, A.J Brodeur, Darnell Foreman and Caleb Wood. 

As for Kansas, this might be Bill Self's worst team he has had there, but it's still a pretty darn good team. Malik Newman was terrific in the Big 12 Tournament and Sylvio De Sousa is coming around, however, they could potentially be without Udoka Azubuike, who sat out the Big 12 Tournament with a knee injury. Kansas is a hot and cold team, they had spurts this season where they could not miss three's, but they also had spans where they could not hit the threes. Kansas has the 13th best three-point offense in the nation, but Penn has the second-best three-point defense in the country. Without Azubuike, Kansas does not have a real dominant presence down low, this is the one 16 seed that does not match-up great for Kansas.

I think Kansas will manage to pull away late and win this game, but Penn will give them a fight and make Jayhawk nation nervous. One of these years, a 1 seed will fall in the first round. I'm not sure it will happen this year, but if it's going to happen this year, Kansas is the prime victim.

#3 West Region-#7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Providence

                                                     (Friday 11:15 a.m. CBS)

10 vs. 7 games are typically a lot of fun because there's not a lot of separation between the two teams. Let me begin this by saying that Providence head coach Ed Cooley is the absolute greatest. The man ripped his pants during the Big East Final vs. Villanova, Cooley responded well...cooly, by covering up the rip with towels and continued to coach the game. The man is great. His teams are no slouch either. Providence always seems to be playing their best-come tournament time. This year is no different, Providence beat Xavier in the Big East semi and took Villanova to overtime in the title game. This is a 10 seed that has the potential to make a deep run and the region to do it in.

Texas A&M is a team that many people are saying not to sleep on. I have not watched them much this year, but I can see why people are saying that. The Aggies are a balanced team with four players averaging double figures; Tyler Davis (14.5 PPG), Admon Gilder (12.2 PPG), DJ Hogg (11.3 PPG) and Robert Williams (10.3 PPG). The Aggies certainly have the pieces to make a run.

According to Ken Pom.com, Texas A&M has the 71st best offense, but the 12th best defense while Providence boasts the 105th best offense and 35th best defense. So I expect this game to be played in the 60's. The difference maker could be the fact that neither one of these teams is particularly great at shooting the three-ball, Providence (33.3%) and Texas A&M (32.7%). That's the 253rd and 286th best three-point shooting teams in the nation. The only tournament teams that are worse three-point teams than Alabama and Syracuse. Whoever does not suck the most at shooting the three in this game will most likely win.

#2 South Region-#8 Creighton vs. #9 Kansas State 

(Friday 5:50 p.m. TNT)

I am just going to call this the Marcus Foster game. For those of you that are aware, Creighton guard Marcus Foster began his career at Kansas State. Foster was kicked off the team by Bruce Weber and wound up at Creighton. Foster has been pretty darn good for the Blue Jays this season, averaging 20.3 PPG and shooting over 42-percent from three and 49-percent from the field. I'm not sure if Foster will go into this game with revenge on his mind, I tend to doubt it, but you never know. Either way, he's capable of dropping 20 or 30. The Blue Jays also received solid guard play from Khyri Thomas, who averages over 15 points a game. The major problem for Creighton is that they are not real big outside of Jacob Epperson, they have played the second half of the season without Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG) who tore his ACL in January.

Kansas State has exceeded my expectations this year and saved Bruce Weber's job. They have also been dinged up this season, but they've had players step up when called upon. Kansas State was without arguably their two best players; Dean Wade and Barry Brown during their loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. It sounds like both Wade and Brown are on track to play Friday. If they are both able to go, that could be enough to get the Wildcats past Creighton given Wade's ability to take over the game with the three-ball.

If Wade struggles to shoot the three well, then Kansas State will in general. The Wildcats shot just 34.4 percent from beyond the arc, that's 204th in the nation. Creighton is a much better three-point team, hitting 37.6 percent of their threes, 53rd best. According to Ken Pomeroy, Kansas State has the 41st most efficient defense, while Creighton has the 61st most efficient. On the offensive side, Creighton is ranked 22nd while Kansas State is ranked 60th.

This matchup should be a ton of fun.

#1 East Region: #4 Wichita State vs #13 Marshall

(Friday 12:30 p.m. TNT)

Do not sleep on Marshall. I repeat. Do not sleep on Marshall. The Thundering Herd are rolling into the tournament for the first time since 1985 and they have the weapons to make a deep run. They are led by do-all guard John Elmore who averages 22.8 PPG. Elmore is not the only player Marshall has, C.J. Burks, who averages 20.5 PPG, but struggled in the Conference-USA title game against Western Kentucky. The Herd also have six-foot-nine-inch Ajdin Penava who averages 15.5 PPG and 8.6 RPG. 

This is not your grandpa's Wichita State team, the Shockers are an offensive heavy team, but not so much on the defensive side. They are led by Landry Shamet (15.0 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Shaquille Morris (14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG). To combat Penava's rebounding presence, the Shockers have six-foot-seven inch Rashard Kelly who averages 7.5 RPG. This is a team that many people have making a deep run, but I'm not as sold on them as many people are.  

If you like points, this might be your favorite game of the entire tournament. Marshall averages 84.3 PPG (12th) while Wichita State averages 83.0 PPG (19th). Wichita State has the fifth most efficient offense according to Ken Pomeroy, Marshall has the 95th most efficient offense. Wichita State shoots the three-ball remarkably better than Marshall (37th to 142nd). I do not expect this game to involve much defense, Wichita State has the 140th best scoring defense, Marshall has the 318th best. Ken Pomeroy has Wichita State ranked as the 107th most efficient defense, Marshall is ranked 142nd. 

This has the makings of a game that could end up in the 90's and I love it.

Seven Mid-Majors that could pull off the upset.

The best part of March is the madness. The last second game winners. Upsets that completely shred a bracket. The question is never whether or not there will be an upset, but who will do it? and who will they do it to? Since 2012, a team seeded 11th or lower has won 36 of 144 (25%)  possible matchups. 

11 over 6

2012	Colorado over UNLV
2012	North Carolina State over San Diego State
2013	Minnesota over UCLA
2014	Dayton over Ohio State
2014	Tennessee over UMass
2015	UCLA over SMU
2015	Dayton over Providence
2016	Northern Iowa over Texas
2016	Gonzaga over Seton Hall
2016	Wichita State over Arizona
2017	USC over SMU
2017	Xavier over Maryland
2017	Rhode Island over Creighton

                                                                        

 12 over 5

2012	VCU over Wichita State
2012	South Florida over Temple
2013	Oregon over Oklahoma State
2013	California over UNLV
2013	Ole Miss over Wisconsin
2014	Harvard over Cincinnati
2014	North Dakota State over Oklahoma
2014	Stephen F. Austin over VCU
2016	Yale over Baylor
2016	Arkansas-Little Rock over Purdue
2017	Middle Tennessee over Minnesota

                                                                  13 over 4

2012	Ohio over Michigan
2013	LaSalle over Kansas State
2016	Hawaii over California

                                                                 

14 over 3

2013	Harvard over New Mexico
2014	Mercer over Duke
2015	UAB over Iowa State
2015	Georgia State over Baylor
2016	Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia

                                                                  15 over 2

2012	Lehigh over Duke
2012	Norfolk State over Missouri
2013	Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown
2016	Middle Tennessee over Michigan State.

Now it's worth noting that a 16 seed has never beaten a top seed. However, a 16 seed has lost by single digits 15 times since the tournament's expansion to 64 teams. One of these years, it is going to happen. As crazy as college basketball has been, this might be the year. So here's a look at seven teams that could pull off the upset. Well technically I have eight, but we will call it seven.

All Bracketology projections are from ESPN's Joe Lunardi

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

DISCLAIMER: I did not include Middle Tennessee because they were ranked in the top 30. They have pulled upsets the last two seasons, so I don't think it would be that surprising. 

                                                 

                                                                         1: PENN

                                          Current Bracketology Seed: Penn (N/A)

Penn was not the projected Ivy League champion and they just won their tournament about 20 minutes ago, so they are dancing for the first time since 2007. My guess is they end up as a 14 seed. Ivy League teams tend to pose problems for the first-round opponent, because they play smart, sound basketball and tend to suffocate teams defensively. Penn is more capable of exploding on offense. The Quakers have four players who average double digits; Ryan Betley (14.4 PPG), AJ Brodeur (13.0 PPG), Darnell Foreman (10.4 PPG) and Caleb Wood (10.0). The Quakers are really balanced and have been playing really well as of late.

                                                 2: MURRAY STATE (OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE)

                                                      Current Bracketology Seed: 13

Murray State comes into the tournament with a record of 26-5. Two of those losses are to potential tournament teams; Auburn and Middle Tennessee. The Racers are led by senior guard Johnathan Stark (21.8 PPG, 46% FG, 41.0 % 3 PT). The Racers also receive 14.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG from Terrell Miller. Jr and 12.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG from Ja Morant. The Racers in general, are a pretty solid shooting team knocking down 48.5 percent of their two-point field goals and 37.9 percent of their three-point attempts. Teams with the ability to shoot as well as Murray State can sometimes cause headaches for teams come March.

                                                      3: NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC) 

                                                     Current Bracketology Seed: 12

The Aggies are a darn good basketball team that has quite a bit of size. Two of their five losses came at the hands of tournament teams; USC and St. Mary's. The Aggies are a fairly balanced team and match their size with athleticism. The Aggies are led by 6'4 guard Zach Lofton who averages 19.8 PPG and shoots over 45 percent from the field. They also have Jemerrio Jones, who is a walking, talking, breathing double-double. Jones averages 11.0 PPG and 13.2 RPG. Jones has amassed a double-double 19 times this season. The Aggies also have size coming off their bench with 6'10 Johnathan Wilkins who averages just under seven points per game and is a 39 percent three-point shooter. The Aggies are also a defensively sound team, KenPom.com has them ranked as the 14th most efficient defense in the nation. This is a team whose offensive balance and defensive presence could be dangerous.

                                                         4: UNC-GREENSBORO (SOCON)

                                                           Current Bracketology Seed: 13

The Spartans are dancing for the first time since 2001. They earned that right by defeating East Tennessee State in the Southern Conference championship. The Spartans upset North Carolina State earlier this year and have won six in a row. They are led by junior Francis Alonso who averages 15.6 PPG. They also receive 12.3 PPG from Marvin Smith while 6'10 James Dickey corrals in 8.9 PPG and 8.3 RPG. The Spartans have the 30th most efficient defensive according to KenPom.com but are not particularly a great shooting team. Will their defensive presence be enough to pull off an upset? 

                                                          

                                                  5: MARSHALL (CONFERENCE USA)

                                                  Current Bracketology Seed: 12

The Herd are an interesting team. They swept Middle Tennessee State this season, but few expected them to win the tournament. But they avoided playing the Blue Raiders and are dancing for the first time since 1985. I am glad they got in because, this is a team that could make some noise. They are led by two players who score 20+ points. John Elmore (22.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the best mid-major players in college basketball and they have CJ Burks (20.5 PPG) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) to compliment him. This is a team that has the talent capable of making a run to the Sweet Sixteen. 

                                                    6: LOYOLA-CHICAGO (MISSOURI VALLEY)

                                                   Current Bracketology Seed: 11

The Ramblers are the most balanced of all the teams on this list. Their balance helped them upset Florida this year and they have the horses to make a deep tournament run. They have five players that average over double figures; Clayton Custer (13.4 PPG), Donte Ingram (11.6 PPG), Marques Townes (11.2 PPG), Aundre Jackson (10.9 PPG) and Cameron Krutwig (10.5 PPG). The Ramblers shoot 50.7 percent from the field, that's the third-best in college basketball and they have the 24th most efficient defense according to KenPom.com. Combatting their offensive balance, smart shooting, and stout defense, they could pose nightmares for whoever they face in the first round. I think this team has the potential to go deeeeeeeep in the tournament.

                                                7: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT LEAGUE) 

                                                    Current Bracketology Seed: 13

You honestly did not expect me to keep the Jackrabbits off this list did you?. If you've never heard of Mike Daum...A.K.A. The Dauminator, then you are missing out. Daum is the best player in college basketball that you might not know about. This season Daum averaged 23.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Daum also shot 46 percent from the field and 42 percent from three. He's pretty darn good, but he's not all the Jackrabbits have. Freshman guard David Jenkins. Jr. averages 16.1 PPG, he scored 29 points in their conference title game against South Dakota. The Jackrabbits also receive quality contribution from Reed Tellinghausen (12.0 PPG) and Tevin King (9.3 PPG). Daum's ability to take over games coupled with the complimentary pieces they have around him make this team perhaps the most dangerous of all the mid-majors. 

So there you go, take these seven teams are going to pull off the upset, so take it to the bank! Actually, maybe not. I'm not as right on these as much as I like to think I am.