Tuesday, March 13, 2018

My Official March Madness Bracket


LET THE MADNESS BEGIN!

http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/03/five-first-roun-games-im-most-excited.html
http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/03/seven-mid-majors-that-could-pull-off.html

I wish I could say I'm sorry for the March Madness overload, but I'm really not. I love college basketball, especially in March, so I have to write about it. I always fill out more than one bracket, but I have one that is near and dear to my heart. So here is my "Official" March Madness Bracket

                                                                       Play-In Games
                                                     East 
#11 St. Bonaventure over UCLA
The Bonnies are an intriguing team, they have a solid one-two punch in Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley and have won 13 of their last 14. I did not even feel UCLA should be in the tournament because the Pac 12 was god awful. I'm taking the Bonnies.


#16 Radford over LIU-Brooklyn
I would be lying if I said I knew a ton about either of these teams, but LIU-Brooklyn is terrible defensively (295th most efficient according to Ken Pomeroy). I'm taking Radford in this one.

                                                                               Midwest
                                                       #11 Syracuse over Arizona State
Neither one of these teams should be in the tournament in the first place, but Syracuse plays in the ACC, so they have to have a good resume and Arizona State beat Xavier and Kansas when college football was more important. Arizona State has struggled down the stretch. I'm reluctantly taking Syracuse.

       West
#16 Texas Southern over North Carolina Central
Neither one of these teams are good on defense, and Texas Southern is better offensively and they have the more athletic team. Whoever wins this will get Xavier anyways.

          ROUND OF 64
       South Region
#1 Virginia over #16 Maryland-Baltimore County
This is the best Virginia team, we've seen. I don't know if that means anything but I'm just spewing out facts. I think UMBC can keep up with them for awhile because Virginia's pace allows that, but I'm taking the Cavs in this one.

#8 Creighton over Kansas State
This has the potential to be the best game of the first round. Creighton's Marcus Foster looks to defeat his former team and Creighton is a streaky team. Same could be said for Kansas State, but their two best players; Dean Wade and Barry Brown have been dinged up. Sounds like they both will play, but I'm taking Creighton.

#5 Kentucky over #12 Davidson
If it was any other five seed, I might pick Davidson to pull off the upset. I really like Davidson, but I like Kentucky more.

#4 Arizona over #13 Buffalo
I don't see a scenario where the Wildcats lose, they are playing too darn good and Deandre Ayton might be the best player in the nation, however, it would be the most Arizona thing ever to get ousted in the first round.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami
UPSET NUMBER ONE!. Missouri Valley teams historically do well in the tourney (most of them have been Creighton or Wichita State). The Ramblers are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and the Hurricanes are dinged up.

#3 Tennessee over #14 Wright State 
Tennessee is a team that could make a deep run or get ousted early. I'm not sure which, but I think they have enough to get past Wright State.

#10 Texas over Nevada
I'm going to go with Texas even though I'm not convinced that Mo Bamba is 100% healthy. Nevada's offense is pretty good, but they just got smoked by San Diego State and Texas' defense is perhaps underrated. Hook'em Horns, you'll never hear me say that again.

#2 Cincinnati over #15 Georgia State
I think this is the most likely of the 15 over 2 scenarios, but I think Cincinnati is good enough to scrape by even without Jacob Evans, but I expect Georgia State to keep it interesting. 

West Region
#1 Xavier over #16 Texas Southern
Xavier is the weakest of the top seeds, but I don't think they are weak enough to drop to Texas Southern because I think this matchup favors Xavier.

#8 Missouri over Florida State
Michael Porter, Jr. returned in the SEC Tournament against Georgia and he was not good, but neither was most of the team. Missouri has the makings of a team that could be dangerous. Porter will have had a full week to rest. I'm not sold on Florida State. I'll take Mizzou in this one.

#12 South Dakota State over #5 Ohio State
Ohio State has not been there with this team. This is a vulnerable matchup for them. I'll take Mike Daum, David Jenkins, and Reed Tellinghuisen to pull off the upset. 

#4 Gonzaga over #13 UNC-Greensboro
I personally thought Gonzaga should be a three seed, but they are a four. I like what the 'Zags have this year with Johnathan Williams, Killian Tillie and Josh Perkins. They are balanced, with five players scoring 11 PPG or more. I would not be greatly surprised if UNC-Greensboro pulls off the upset due to their defensive abilities, but I'm not sure they can score enough.

#6 Houston over #11 San Diego State
Houston is a sneaky six seed. Rob Gray is one of, if not the best player in the American Athletic Conference. Houston is an incredibly balanced team with the 31st most efficient offense and 20th most efficient defense according to Ken Pomeroy. San Diego State caught lightning in a bottle during the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

#3 Michigan over #14 Montana
I've heard some people picking the upset on this one, and I understand it. Michigan has not played a game since March 4th so they could be rusty, but that could also mean they are fresh. They have an experienced team with Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman, so they should be just fine. 

                                                     #10 Providence over #7 Texas A&M
As I wrote earlier today, this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. Providence beat Xavier and took Villanova to overtime last week while Texas A&M is super talented, but has struggled to be consistent. I'm trusting Ed Cooley and Providence in this one. This is a scary 10 seed.

#2 North Carolina over #15 Lipscomb
As cool as it would be to see Lipscomb win a game in their first ever tournament appearance, North Carolina is just playing too darn good right now to get upset....in the first round.

                                                                        East Region
#1 Villanova over #16 Radford
No chance a 16 seed that has to play on Tuesday night, travel again and then play Villanova two days later pulls off the upset.

#9 Alabama over #8 Virginia Tech
We can argue until we are blue in the face about whether or not Alabama deserves to be in, but they are and Collin Sexton has the ability to take over games. The difference in this game is the three-point shot. Virginia Tech shoots the three ball pretty well, while Alabama does not. But Alabama defends the three really well while Virginia Tech does not. So I'll bank on Collin Sexton.

#5 West Virginia over #12 Murray State
Murray State is a really good shooting team, but Bob Huggins does a great job of making shooting teams uncomfortable. I'll take West Virginia.

#13 Marshall over #4 Wichita State
This is the game I'm the most excited for. These are two teams that have high powered offenses and don't play a ton of defense. If the combined score of this game is less than 150, I'll be stunned. I'm trusting the guard play of John Elmore and C.J Burks to pull off the upset.

#6 Florida over #11 St. Bonaventure
Florida has failed to live up to their potential this season, but I have a gut feeling they have enough to get by the Bonnies. If they gel at the right time, I think they could make a deep run.

#3 Texas Tech over #14 Stephen F. Austin 
I almost took the upset here because I'm not convinced Keenan Evans is 100 percent healthy, but he's been playing pretty darn good lately. I trust Chris Beard and you should too.

#10 Butler over #7 Arkansas
The last time I saw Butler, they were getting spanked by Villanova, but they have a weird tendency to shoot the lights out and I don't trust Arkansas.

#2 Purdue over #15 Cal-State Fullerton
Last year I was real high on Purdue and it backfired. This year, I'm not quite as high, but I think they handle Cal-State Fullerton with ease.

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas over #16 Pennsylvania
If there is ever a 16 seed that could beat a one seed, it is Penn. Who I think should have been a 14 or 15. If there is ever a 1 seed that could lose, it is this year's Kansas team, who has let teams hang around all year and has not blown a lot of teams out, especially late in the season. I think Penn keeps it close for most the game, but I think the Jayhawks pull away late and win by 12 or so. Or at least I hope. 
#8 Seton Hall over #9 North Carolina State 
North Carolina State lost to Boston College in the ACC Tournament, so it's hard for me to trust them. I think Seton Hall is the more talented team regardless of whether or not Desi Rodriguez is healthy.

                                                #12 New Mexico State over #5 Clemson
I really like New Mexico State, Clemson has been consistent all year, even without their best player, Donte Grantham, but Clemson has not been in the tournament and I feel like those types of teams can be vulnerable. Plus I really like Zach Lofton and Jemerrio Jones.

                                                   #4 Auburn over #13 Charleston
Auburn is a tough team to disect. They started out 21-2 and finished the season 4-5. Meanwhile,  Charleston has two scorers who average over 18.0 PPG; Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. I would not be surprised if they pull off the upset, but I'm reluctantly picking Auburn.

#11 Syracuse over #6 TCU
Here I am bashing Syracuse, but I picked them to win a game. Hear me out, teams that usually have no business making the tournament tend to try proving people wrong by winning a game or two. TCU has not been the same team since losing Jaylen Fisher this season. Syracuse's zone could cause troubles.

#3 Michigan State over #14 Bucknell
Bucknell has been a popular pick by some to pull off the upset and I can see why. They've done it before (remember Kansas fans?).  I think the extra time off could have helped Michigan State get rested. 

                                                    #7 Rhode Island over #10 Oklahoma
Oklahoma is in the tournament because the selection committee is in love with Trae Young, one of the most overrated players in college basketball. Rhode Island is a balanced team led by the veteran experience of E.C. Matthews. I'm taking the Rams to expose the flaws of Oklahoma.

#2 Duke over #15 Iona
This is a Duke team that has the talent to win it all but has played inconsistent enough that they could get beat in the first round. I'm trusting Coach K to get them past the Gaels and into the Round of 32.

ROUND OF 32
South Region
#1 Virginia over #8 Creighton.
I think Virginia's defense will give Creighton's offense fits. Creighton relies heavily on the three and Virginia defends the three really good. Well, actually they defend just about everything really good.

#5 Kentucky over #4 Arizona
I have gone back and forth on this game 100 times. Arizona has the best player in the nation, but Kentucky is playing so darn good and I think John Calipari is a much better coach than Sean Miller. This game could be the best of the second round and could decide who makes the Final Four.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #3 Tennessee
The glass slipper still fits for the Ramblers, Tennessee is not a team that I'm completely sold on and the Ramblers shoot the ball really well. It's hard to defend good shooting.

#2 Cincinnati over #10 Texas 
Cincinnati's defense will give Texas fits, who I believe is pretty much a one-trick pony with Mo Bamba.

                                                                      West Region
#8 Missouri over #1 Xavier
Missouri is definitely the most dangerous 8 seed and Xavier is the most vulnerable 1 seed. Assuming that Michael Porter. Jr is healthy and they get past Florida State, I think Missouri can give Xavier troubles. They have talent around Porter such as Jontay Porter and Kassius Robertson that can also pull off the upset. 

#3 Michigan over #6 Houston
I nearly picked Houston to pull off the upset, but Michigan is playing too darn good and is way too balanced for the Cougars. 

#10 Providence over #2 North Carolina
Bare with me on this, these two teams have met in the NCAA Tournament twice in the last five years. North Carolina won both of them, one by two and the other time by 20. This Providence team has shown they can toe to toe with Xavier and Villanova. North Carolina is playing a lot better but I'm still not sold on The Tar Heels being able to stay consistent. 

                                                                             East Region
#1 Villanova over #9 Alabama
All Alabama really has is Collin Sexton and I'm not convinced that is enough to get them past Villanova.

#5 West Virginia over #13 Marshall
I'm guessing the entire state of West Virginia would be watching this matchup if it were to happen. I would love to see John Elmore vs. Jevon Carter. It would be fantastic. These would be too contrast playing styles. I trust Bob Huggins more than I do Dan D'Antoni even though this is not his best West Virginia team.

#3 Texas Tech over #6 Florida
I liked Florida so much early in the season that I picked them as my pre-season champion. When they are on, they can beat just about anyone in the nation, but consistency has been a problem for them this year and I think Texas Tech will feast on that.

#2 Purdue over #10 Butler
I nearly picked Butler to pull the upset. These two teams met earlier this year and Purdue won by 15. Purdue shoots the three-ball too darn well (2nd in the country) and Butler has been a Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde team this year.

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas over #8 Seton Hall
I like Seton Hall a lot, but I don't know if they can shoot well enough to get by Kansas. Jayhawks advance to the Elite Eight.

#12 New Mexico State over #4 Auburn
New Mexico State to the Sweet Sixteen! I think the Aggies have the weapons and the bracket that gives them the ability to do it. I'm just not sold on Auburn. I don't think they are a strong four seed. New Mexico State capitalizes on that.

#3 Michigan State over #11 Syracuse
Michigan State makes Syracuse look silly. Enough said. Syracuse gets exposed
#2 Duke over #7 Rhode Island
The Round of 32 has been kryptonite for Duke in recent memory and I could see Rhode Island pulling off the upset, but this Duke team is way too talented for me to blatantly predict it.

SWEET SIXTEEN
South Region
#5 Kentucky over #1 Virginia
This bracket is the one that has given me the biggest headache. I love the way Virginia plays but it does not transition come tournament time and it just came out that DeAndre Hunter is out for the season with a broken wrist. Losing him is key for the Cavaliers and I think Kentucky can capitalize on his abscence. 

#2 Cincinnati over #11 Loyola-Chicago
The clock strikes midnight for the Cinderella Ramblers. They shoot the ball incredibly well, but Cincinnati defends incredibly well and is more talented. I think that wins out.

West Region
#4 Gonzaga over #8 Missouri
Last year everyone loved Gonzaga. This year, everyone has looked past them. Maybe they like it that way, but I think the 'Zags have the pieces to make it to the Elite Eight and will do so in a wonky bracket.

#3 Michigan over #10 Providence
I want to see Ed Cooley coach in the Final Four so badly, but this Michigan team looks too darn good and too experienced.

East Region
#1 Villanova over #5 West Virginia
This game could be very intriguing, but I think that Jay Wright is smart enough to crack the West Virginia defense and advance to the Elite Eight.

#3 Purdue over #2 Texas Tech
Another intriguing matchup, but I think the matchup favors Purdue. This is a team that has size and can shoot well.

Midwest Region
#1 Kansas over #12 New Mexico State
It would be such a Kansas thing to get upset by New Mexico State and I would laugh, but I've said since the bracket came out that if Kansas won in the first round, they'd make the Elite Eight. Here they are.

#2 Duke over #3 Michigan State
These two teams met to kick off the season. I said then that I thought Duke was a young team, Michigan State would win and that if they met in March, Duke would be the favorite. Well on that night, Grayson Allen had a career night and Duke won without Marvin Bagley. I think Duke is the better team. I'm picking the better team.

ELITE EIGHT
South Region
#5 Kentucky over #2 Cincinnati
These two schools are separated by 90 miles and could bring a lot of fans to Atlanta. Kentucky is such a good offensive team, while Cincinnati is equally as good on defense. Cincinnati is no slouch on offense, nor is Kentucky defensively. I'm trusting the raw talent of Kentucky and the experience of John Calipari to defeat Cincinnati and advance to the Final Four.

West Region
#3 Michigan over #4 Gonzaga
I am not super convinced with this prediction. Actually, this is the one I'm the least confident in, but I'm a believer that how you finish the season means something. Michigan has won nine in a row coming into the tournament. This team has the makings of a Final Four team and they have many pieces back from last year's Sweet Sixteen team.

East Region
#1 Villanova over #2 Purdue
These are two of the best offenses in college basketball. This could be a great back and forth game, but I'm trusting that Villanova is the better team and that will mean something.

Midwest Region
#2 Duke over #1 Kansas
Is it really the Elite Eight if Kansas does not lose? We have not seen Kansas this year, so it's difficult to see how these two matchup against each other. Both teams started out the season by struggling on defense. Duke improved as the season went on, Kansas did not. I'm taking Duke to the Final Four.

My Final Four: Kentucky, Michigan, Villanova and Duke 

FINAL FOUR
Kentucky over Michigan
I am not sure what is about this season's Kentucky team, but it reminds me an awful lot of the 2014 team that made a run to the title game as an 8 seed. I think this year's team is capable of doing that and will do so.

 Villanova over Duke
I have been wanting to see this matchup for the past few seasons. Last year, they were put in the same region, but both got upset in the second round. I like Duke a lot, but Villanova has been more consistent all season and I think their consistency propels them into the 'ship.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Villanova over Kentucky
While many people think that Virginia is the best team in the country, I think that Villanova is the safest team. They don't have any serious flaws and in a perfect world, that would result in a second title in three years for Jay Wright. I understand this is not a perfect world and crazy stuff happens in March, but I have to pick somebody and they make me the least nervous. But they still make me nervous.

So there you go, a 3,330-word prediction of my official bracket. You can just go ahead and use this bracket if you want. I only ask that you split your winnings. Just Kidding! Gambling is bad, so don't do it! 




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