Projected lineups are from mlb.com
All odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
2017 Record: 97-65
Projected Lineup
1: Adam Eaton (LF)
2: Trea Turner (SS)
3: Bryce Harper (RF)
4: Anthony Rendon (3B)
5: Daniel Murphy (2B)
6: Ryan Zimmerman (1B)
7: Matt Wieters (C)
8: Michael A. Taylor (CF)
Projected Rotation
1: Max Scherzer (R)
2: Stephen Strasburg (R)
3: Gio Gonzalez (L)
4: Tanner Roark (R)
5: AJ Cole (R)
The Nationals have become the Kansas City Chiefs of baseball, a team that impresses in the regular season only to lay an egg come postseason. 2018 is a must-win year for the Nationals because it is most likely the last year they will have Bryce Harper in their lineup. Last year, Harper only played in 111 games but hit .319 with a .413 OBP and 4.7 WAR. Last year, Trea Turner was expected by many to have a breakout season and showed flashes of brilliance, but his season was marred by injuries. Turner played well in just 98 games and could potentially be an MVP candidate if he plays an entire season. Anthony Rendon is coming off a career year in 2017 where hit .301 with a .403 OBP and 25 homers, Rendon also posted an offensive WAR rating of 5.22, which was the 10th best in baseball.
On the mound, the Nationals are led by two-time defending NL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, last year Scherzer led the league in strikeouts and posted a FIP of 2.90, he looks to join Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers to win at least three consecutive Cy Young awards. Stephen Strasburg is coming off the best year of his career, in 2017 he posted a 15-4 record with a 2.52 ERA and a league-best FIP of 2.72. Strasburg has been hyped by many as the next big thing for a long time, is he finally coming to or was last year simply just a career year? The wildcard here is whether or not the Nationals lands Jake Arrieta which it sounds like they might if they do it could give them one of the best rotations in baseball.
Vegas Projection: 94.5
Prediction: Over, If Strasburg, Rendon, and Scherzer play like they did in 2017, Turner breaks through and they land Arrieta, this could be the best team in baseball.
2017 Record: 77-85
Projected Lineup
1: Cameron Maybin (RF)
2: JT Realmuto (C)
3: Starlin Castro (2B) (NEW)
4: Justin Bour (1B)
5: Martin Prado (3B)
6: Derek Dietrich (LF)
7: Lewis Brinson (CF) (NEW)
8: Miguel Rojas (SS)
Projected Rotation
1: Dan Straily (R)
2: Jose Urena (R)
3: Dillon Peters (L)
4: Adam Conley (R)
5: Sandy Alcantara (R) (NEW)
The Marlins traded just about everyone this offseason, in fact, they might trade me for writing this and they don't even have rights to me (that I know of). This offseason, the Marlins dealt; Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Marcel Ozuna, arguably their four best players. It appears as if Derek Jeter wants the Marlins to tank. Justin Bour is the Marlins best-returning hitter, last year he hit .289 with a .336 OBP and an OPS (on-base + slugging) of .902 which is pretty darn good. The Marlins do have some veterans in their lineup such as Martin Prado and Cameron Maybin, but I'm not very excited about them and they added Lewis Brinson to their lineup who was terrible, granted it was in just 55 at-bats, but he hit .106 with a WAR of -0.5.
On the pitching side, the Marlins return three of last year's starters. Jose Urena posted the best season of his young career (14-7 record, 3.82 ERA, 5.20 FIP), but he also hit a league-high 14 batters. Journeyman Dan Straily is also coming off a solid, but mediocre season (10-9 record, 4.26 ERA. 4.58 FIP), Straily also gave up 31 homers for the second straight year. Dillon Peters is expected to join the rotation this season and is a complete wildcard. Last year he posted a 1-2 record with a 5.17 ERA, 4.69 FIP and 27 strikeouts in just six appearances. A small sample size from him, so its tough to say what to expect from him.
Vegas Projections: 64.5
My Prediction: Under, I think the Marlins will be the worst team in baseball this year and lose 100+ games.
2017 Record: 72-90
Projected Lineup
1: Ender Inciarte (CF)
2: Ozzie Albies (2B)
3: Freddie Freeman (1B)
4: Tyler Flowers (C)
5: Nick Markakis (RF)
6: Lane Adams (LF)
7: Johan Camargo (3B)
8: Dansby Swanson (SS)
Projected Rotation
1: Julio Teheran (R)
2: Mike Foltynewicz (R)
3: Sean Newcomb (L)
4: Brandon McCarthy (R) (NEW)
5: Luiz Gohara (L)
The Braves are a team that intrigues me a lot this year. They have many young talents to go with some wily veterans. Freddie Freeman is coming off what might have been his best season, hitting. 307 with 28 home runs and an OPS of .907. Ender Inciarte played 157 games last year and made a league high 662 at-bats, in those at-bats, he hit .304 with 11 home runs with a .759 OPS. Dansby Swanson struggled in his first full season, hitting just .232 with a .636 OPS and a WAR of -0.3, this could have just been a rough rookie season or maybe it's a sign of him becoming a bust, but I'm expecting better things from him in 2018. Ozzie Albies played solid in just 57 games and will be the Braves' go-to at second base. The wildcard for the Braves is when and if outfielder Ronald Acuna will make his major league debut, Acuna is ranked by many as the second-best prospect in baseball behind Shohei Ohtani, so I'm guessing he will come up sooner rather than later. My guess is the Braves are giving him the Kris Bryant treatment.
The Braves pitching staff was not good last season, none of their starting pitchers posted a winning record, but the majority of this season's rotation is fairly new.. Julio Teheran posted an 11-13 record with a 4.49 ERA and 4.95 FIP. Mike Foltynewicz (love that name) posted a 10-13 record with a 4.79 ERA and 4.33 FIP. The Braves acquired Brandon McCarthy from the Dodgers, he posted a 6-4 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 3.28 FIP, his veteran leadership could be what the Braves need for a team with young pieces. I'm interested to see what 21-year old Luiz Gohara does this season, last season he started five games and posted a 1-3 record with a 4.91 ERA and a FIP of 2.75, Gohara is ranked by mlb.com as the 49th best prospect.
Vegas Projection: 75.5
Prediction: I'm taking the over, I might be higher on the Braves than I should be, but this a team with some young pieces that I like.
2017 Record: 72-90
Projected Lineup
1: Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
2: Yeonis Cesepedes (LF)
3: Jay Bruce (RF)
4: Todd Frazier (3B) (NEW)
5: Adrian Gonzalez (1B) (NEW)
6: Travis d'Arnaud (C)
7: Juan Legares (CF)
8: Ahmed Rosario (SS)
Projected Rotation
1: Jacob DeGrom (R)
2: Noah Syndergaard (R)
3: Jason Vargas (L) (NEW)
4: Matt Harvey (R)
5: Stephen Matz (L)
The Mets were not good last year. They were so disappointing they got their manager fired. I expected the Mets to compete for a wildcard spot in 2017, but just about everything that could go wrong did. Juan Lagares played well, but it was in limited appearances. Yeonis Cespedes hit .292 with a .892 OPS and 17 HR. The Mets went out and added Todd Frazier, who is coming off a season where he only hit .213 with an OBP of .344, the Mets also added a 35-year-old Adrian Gonzalez (.242, 287 OPB, .642 OPS and 3 HR), these moves would have been great five years ago, unfortunately it is 2018, not 2013.
The pitching rotation will most definitely be the Mets' strong suit this season. They might have the best rotation in the National League when it is healthy. Problem is, they are an injury-ridden rotation. Jacob DeGrom is currently nursing a back injury that could force him to miss opening day. Many expected Noah Syndergaard to have a Cy Young caliber season, but he was plagued by injuries all season and only made seven starts. Matt Harvey had a weird season, going AWOL led to a suspension and then he spent 8 weeks on the disabled list due to injury. They added former Royal Jason Vargas (18-11, 4.16 ERA, 4.67 FIP), whose career has been marred by injuries, but he did put his best season in Kansas City last year while staying healthy.
Vegas Projection: 81.5
Prediction: Over, I'm not confident about this, but I feel that if the rotation stays healthy, then all the Mets need is a team that can produce three or four runs a game.
2017 Record: 66-96
Projected Lineup
1: Cesar Hernandez (2B)
2: Carlos Santana (1B)
3: Odubel Herrera (CF)
4; Rhys Hoskins (LF)
5: Nick Williams (RF)
6: Maikel Franco (3B)
7: JP Crawford (SS)
8: Jorge Alfaro (C)
Projected Rotation
1: Aaron Nola (R)
2: Jared Eickhoff (R)
3: Vince Velasquez (R)
4: Nick Pivetta (R)
5: Ben Lively (R)
Whereas the Mets are a really old team, the Phillies are a really young team, that showed last year. Cesar Hernandez is the oldest starter in their projected lineup and he's only 27-years-old. The old man of the clubhouse hit .294 with a .793 OPS. Nick Williams only played in 83 games but hit .288 with a .811 OPS. The Phillies lost Freddie Galvis, who started all 162 games last year, but are confident in what they've seen from J.P. Crawford even though he hit just .214 in only 70 at-bats. The big problem for the Phillies last year was their lack of power presence, Maikel Franco led the team with 24 homers and the Phillies hit just 174 homers as a team, the fifth worst in baseball. The Phillies have a handful of players such as Crawford, Jorge Alfaro and Rhys Hoskins that had just small sample sizes last year but will be expected to contribute in 2018.
The Phillies are just as young on the mound as they are in the lineup. None of their pitchers are older than 25-years-old, but all five of their projected starters made at least 15-starts last season. Aaron Nola is expected to be their number one, he posted a 12-11 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 3.27 FIP last season. The rest of their rotation struggled giving up an average ERA of 5.03 and a FIP of 4.92, but part of that could be due to lack of experience. You have to expect growing pains with a young rotation. I look for Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Vince Velasquez and Jared Eickhoff to all improve on their 2017 campaigns.
Vegas Projection: 77.5
My Prediction: I'm going to the well and taking the over. This team was young last year, there will be some growing pains, but that's a good thing. This feels like an 80-83 win team.
HOW THEY WILL END UP
1: Washington
2: New York
3: Philadelphia
4: Atlanta
5: Miami
I don't see a scenario where the Nationals don't win the NL East, but the rest is up for grabs. I'm trusting the veteran experience and stout rotation of the Mets to finish in second, the Phillies are a young team that could find their rhythm late summer. The Braves have some exciting pieces but still aren't quite there and the Marlins are trying to suck.
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