I've always been fascinated by Hall of Fames whether it be
baseball, football, even NASCAR. Hall of Fames are great (literally). Almost
all careers in sports are determined by whether or not they reach the hall of
fame. Reaching the hall of fame in any sport is a massive honor and a huge
achievement that is usually well deserved.
Perhaps no Hall of Fame carries
more of an honor than the National Baseball Hall of Fame because it is so
difficult to get into and the voting process is...well, let's just say
interesting.
The Baseball Hall of Fame
members are elected through one of two ways; being selected through the
Veterans committee (and their four sub-committee's) or by receiving 75% of the
vote from the voters of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).
BBWAA voters are allowed to vote for up to ten players on the ballot, but not
everyone votes for 10 players. Last year only 173 of the 317 ballots that were
made public voted for 10 players.
Personally, I think it's dumb
to not vote for 10. I'll be honest, it would be tough for me to pick just 10.
Each year there are anywhere between 12 to 20 candidates that have a strong
case for election. A
As I mentioned, I would have a tough time voting for just 10. So I
created a scoring system to help me create my imaginary ballot. The scoring
system comprises of five analytical categories that I stumbled across on
Baseball Reference.
They are.
1. Bill James Hall of Fame
Monitor: This was created by the great statistician Bill James. This statistic
attempts to determine how likely a player is to be inducted. A score of over
100 means the player is more likely than not while a score of under 100 means a
player is less likely than not.
2. Bill James Hall of Fame
Standards: I wish I was a smart as Bill James. This stat measures how well a
player's career stats match up to the typical standards of a Hall of Famer. A
score of 50 is considered an "average" Hall of Famer.
3. Wins Above Replacement
(WAR): This stat measures how many wins it is estimated this player accounted
for during his career.
4. Wins Above Replacement Best
7 (WAR7). This is the WAR rating, except it takes the players 7-best WAR
seasons. I think this is stat is very important because it shows just how important
a player was during his prime.
5. Jaffe War Score System
(JAWS): This stat was created by Jay Jaffe. I don't think I'm smart enough to
explain it, but I'll try. This stat contains both WAR and WAR7 while also
comparing players to the average Hall of Fame members by position.
I then used these rankings to
create my ballot. I took the top nine highest scoring players as well as one
player who is clearly deserving of Cooperstown, but did not score well (more on
that later).
There happened to be a tie for
a final spot on my ballot, so I broke the tie by my own personal preference.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
Relievers do not fare well in this scoring system, so I have to
completely throw them out when it comes to filling out my "ballot"
and just use my own discretion. Billy Wagner was the most compelling player to
me on the ballot because I think you can make an argument for his Cooperstown
case either way. Wagner was really good for the majority of his career, but spent
most of his career in the shadows of Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. He finished
his career with the highest strike-out rate among pitchers with at least 800
innings and with a better ERA and more strikeouts than Hoffman who pitched 186
less innings (almost three years’ worth) than Wagner. If you could vote for 15
Wagner would be on my "ballot", also if 10 got in every year, he
would definitely get in, maybe even next year.
Andruw Jones (1996-2012), 118 Points
Andruw Jones had the misfortune of being on a Braves team that was
absolutely loaded in the mid '90's and early 2000's. Teammates Greg Maddux, John
Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones have already staked their claim in
Cooperstown. He had a career that certainly has a case for Cooperstown with the
10th highest WAR and fifth highest WAR7 among all nominees, but that's as high
as he ranks in any category.
Scott Rolen (1996-2012), 118 Points
I'm a little surprised Scott Rolen scored as high as he did, but
he was a pretty good player for a long period of time finishing his career with
.281 batting average and .855 OPS, he also posted a higher WAR rating than Hall
of Fame members Tony Gywnn, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. Rolen has the
sixth highest WAR of eligible players, but was ranked 22nd by the Hall of Fame
Meter. Like I said, Rolen was a very good player, but Cooperstown worthy? I
don't know.
Gary Sheffield (1988-2009), 128 Points
Gary Sheffield is another player that was good for a long period
of time. Sheffield played 22 seasons for eight different teams, was an All-Star
nine times and won the 1992 NL Batting Title. That's quite the career, but he
fails to make my ballot despite being ranked no lower than 13th in any
category. Sheffield had the fourth highest Hall of Fame Standard score, but
that was not enough for him to crack the top nine. I think Sheffield, like
Rolen and Andruw Jones is a "fringe" Hall of famer that will never
get in because not everyone puts 10 on their ballot.
Sammy Sosa (1989-2007), 132 Points
I will prefix this by saying there is no way Sosa ever gets in the
hall. Whether it’s fair or not, the steroid allegations have caused that (more
on that later). Sosa tied for the last spot on my imaginary ballot, but
unfortunately, I felt that the other player was much more deserving. Sosa is
mainly remembered for his 66-home run season in 1998. Sosa ranked fifth in HOF
Meter and eighth in HOF Standards, but was outside the top ten in WAR and JAWS,
ultimately costing him a spot on my ballot.
THE BALLOT
Mariano Rivera (1995-2013)
As I said earlier with Billy Wagner, the one glaring flaw in my
scoring system is that it does not give relievers the respect they deserve. If
I went solely by this system, Rivera might not ever make it to Cooperstown and
that's just stupid to think of. Rivera is hands-down a first-ballot Hall of Famer
and has a legitimate case to be unanimous, even though he will not be. Rivera
finished his career as the all-time leader in Saves (652), was a 13-time
All-Star and a major reason for the Yankees five championships from 1996-2009.
You can make an argument that Wagner does not belong, but I don't see how you
possibly could with Rivera. If you don't think he's worthy of the games'
highest honor, you should not watch baseball. Enough said.
Barry Bonds (1986-2007), 175 Points
This is the part of the blog where I tell you that I think players
associated with steroid abuse still deserve a spot in Cooperstown. First off,
there's already steroid users in the hall. Second off, there are many racists,
alcoholics and drug addicts in the hall, so let’s quit playing morality card.
Lastly, I think Bonds (along with a few other players on my ballot) would have
been Hall of Famers without steroids, plus it's not like the dude was sitting
around eating Cheetos, injecting steroids and hitting 762 homers, the dude
still had to work. Bonds scored the highest in every single category. So let's
quit being stupid and just put him in Cooperstown already.
Roger Clemens (1984-2007), 170 Points
Another great player linked to allegations of steroid abuse and
more of me not caring. Roger Clemens was one of, if not the best pitcher in
baseball for nearly two decades. That's remarkable and deserving of a spot in
Cooperstown. Clemens had the lowest-season ERA seven times during his career, led
the AL in strikeouts five times, led the MLB in wins four times and won seven
Cy Young Awards. Bonds and Clemens ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in every
single category. One more time, let's quit being stupid and put him in
Cooperstown.
Curt Schilling (1988-2007), 150 Points
Curt Schilling does not seem like a pleasant person and his
extremely conservative beliefs have turned some voters against him, but this is
the Baseball Hall of Fame, so only what he did on the mound should be
considered. Schilling ranked in the top five among candidates in WAR, WAR7 and
JAWS. But I don't think you need the sabermetrics to put him in Cooperstown.
Schilling was a clutch-postseason pitcher leading the Diamondbacks and Red Sox
to titles in 2001 and 2004. I know he's not the greatest person in the world, but
that does not matter, he should be in Cooperstown.
Larry Walker (1989-2005), 147 Points
The fact that Larry Walker, who has never been tied to any steroid
allegations, has not got in yet is just blasphemy. I think part of Walker's
problem was that he spent most of his career in Montreal and Colorado, so it's
easy to forget about him, but that does not take away from how great a player
he was. Walker retired with a .313 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and
a .565 slugging percentage. He is one of just 19 retired players in MLB history
with a career slash line of .300/.400/.500 and he's one of only a handful of
players who have done it since 1960.
Walker has a better career WAR rating than 14 right-fielders that are currently in Cooperstown and is also the only player in MLB history to finish his career with at least a .310 batting average, 380 home runs, .965 OPS, 470 doubles and 230 stolen bases. He was so good at everything that it's silly he is not in the hall already. If he does not get in, then personally, I don't think you can put Joey Votto in which is also dumb, but they've had similar career paths, so if one is excluded, then in theory they both should be.
Walker has a better career WAR rating than 14 right-fielders that are currently in Cooperstown and is also the only player in MLB history to finish his career with at least a .310 batting average, 380 home runs, .965 OPS, 470 doubles and 230 stolen bases. He was so good at everything that it's silly he is not in the hall already. If he does not get in, then personally, I don't think you can put Joey Votto in which is also dumb, but they've had similar career paths, so if one is excluded, then in theory they both should be.
Manny Ramirez (1993-2011), 144 Points
Manny Ramirez has been on the ballot twice and has pulled in less
than 25-percent of the vote both times, so he's got a long ways to go to get to
Cooperstown. I personally don't think it will happen given the PED use later in
his career, but Ramirez scored exceptionally well in my ranking system and I
personally think he's Hall of Fame caliber, so he gets my vote. Remember when I
said Larry Walker is one of only a handful of players with a career slash line
of .300/.400/.500, well Ramirez also holds that honor. He was also super clutch with a
MLB-best 29 postseason home runs and a second-best 78 RBI's. That's not the
be-all-end-all because Bernie Williams is second and first respectively on
those lists and is never getting close to Cooperstown, but Ramirez had a much
better career.
Mike Mussina (1991-2008), 143 Points
This looks to be the year that Mike Mussina finally gets to
Cooperstown. Mussina received 63-percent of the vote last year and has improved
his vote count by at least eight-percent the past few years, so this should be
the year. However, it's dumb that he's had to wait this long. Mussina is one of
only 13 players with 17 seasons of 10 or more wins. 12 of those are in the Hall
of Fame. Mussina is also the only pitcher with 100-more wins than losses not in
Cooperstown other than Roger Clemens. Mussina also ranked in the top seven in
every analytical category except for Hall of Fame Meter. There's no reason
Mussina should not be on a ten person ballot and as I've said before, there's
no reason someone should not vote for 10 players.
Todd Helton (1997-2013), 141 Points
Todd Helton was one of my favorite players as a kid but that's not
why he's on my ballot. Aside from Wagner, Helton might be the most compelling
person on the ballot. The stigma of playing at Colorado will most definitely hurt
his status. I don't care about that, but some people do. Those same people
forget that Helton put better numbers on the road than many hall of famers such
as Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn and George Brett. Helton is also the third player
on my ballot who posted a career slash line of .300/.400/.500. How he fares on
this years' ballot will be a telling tale of his status going forward. I
can tell you that of the 118 ballots currently made public, he has received
just 20-percent of the vote.
Roy Halladay (1998-2013), 136 Points
The late Roy Halladay is the second and final first time candidate
on my ballot. Halladay, who was tragically killed in an airplane crash in
November 2017 has a strong case for Cooperstown. Some might argue that his
recent passing will gain him votes and maybe it will, but he'd be on my ballot
regardless. During his career Halladay had three 20+ win seasons, led the MLB
in wins twice, claimed two Cy Young Awards, hurled a perfect game and threw one
of only two postseason no-hitters in MLB history. Halladay had the third
highest WAR7 score among candidates, ranking only behind Bonds and Clemens.
Halladay’s JAWS score ranked seventh among all candidates and is better than
half of the 63 starting pitchers that are already in Cooperstown. He should be
first ballot.
Edgar Martinez (1987-2004), 132 Points
The scoring system created a tie between Edgar Martinez and Sammy
Sosa for the final spot on my ballot, so I used my personal judgement to break
it. To me, it’s not even close. Edgar Martinez is far more deserving of Cooperstown
than Sosa ever will be. 2019 will be the final season Martinez is allowed to be
on the ballot, so he has to get in this year. Martinez ranked no lower than
11th in any of the five analytical categories I used for my ballot. He's also
the fourth player on this ballot (Ramirez, Helton, Walker) that finished his
career with a slash line of 300/400/500. I feel like I've beat a dead horse
with that stat, but those four players are the only players who accomplished
that feat not in Cooperstown with the exception of Shoeless Joe Jackson, who is
ineligible.
The argument against Martinez' candidacy has been that he spent a
large part of his career as a designated hitter. This argument is silly,
Martinez put up silly numbers and is the only DH to ever win a batting title.
Harold Baines---who was a fine, but not great player for the Orioles and White
Sox was just elected to Cooperstown by the Today's Game Committee and his
career statistics does not even pale in comparison to Martinez. So if Baines is
worthy of Cooperstown and you think Martinez is not, you should have to undergo
a psychological evaluation.
If you had a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame, who would you
vote for?
