Monday, November 11, 2019

My NFL 10 Week Shakedown

I meant to do this at the halfway point, but work got in the way. Better late than never I suppose. The NFL season is 10 weeks in and we are starting to get a clearer picture of the contenders and, in some cases, the pretenders. So with that being said, I'm going to hand out some awards.

Most Disappointing Team: Many people will say the Browns, but that's because we (including myself) were stupid enough to believe the Browns were going to quit being the Browns when in reality, they still had flaws and have played the league's toughest schedule. I'm giving this honor to the Chicago Bears. Their defense has still been really good, but their offense has been putrid and the result has been a current 4-5 record. I know they beat Detroit yesterday, but what about that game makes you think they got their problems fixed?

Most Surprising Team: The popular pick would be the 49ers, but I've been on high them, not 8-0 high, but still high. In my opinion, the most surprising team to me has been their Bay Area rival. Jon Gruden is not a great coach, but Mike Mayock has shown he can build a team and Josh Jacobs is a grown man. They've compiled a 5-4 record with the league's second-toughest schedule and have a legit shot of making the playoffs and perhaps winning the AFC West.

Most Disappointing Player: This honor does go to the Browns. I was high on Baker Mayfield to begin this season and I still think it would be silly to pull the plug on him or consider him a bust. But he's struggled this season with 9 touchdowns and 12 picks. It's not uncommon for QB's to come out of sophomore slumps. Cam Newton was not good his second year, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees also weren't putting up MVP numbers in year two. But, the hype around Mayfield coming into this season has not been lived up to.

Most Surprising Player: Aaron Jones was the 19th running back selected in a talented 2017 draft class that includes Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner. Jones has been the complementary back that I can't recall Aaron Rodgers has ever had. He's rumbled to the tune of 11 touchdowns and has a pair of 3+ rushing touchdown performances to his name. A Packer team with one of the league's best QB's and a homerun hitting runner is terrifying come postseason.

The Coach Most Likely to Be Fired Next: It's been completely downhill for Dan Quinn and the Falcons since they butchered a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. I know they beat the Saints yesterday, but let's not pretend one game will save Quinn's job. The Falcons have a former MVP QB and one of the league's top receivers, 2-7 is not ideal.

The Best Game: This one is tough because I have not watched nearly the amount of football that I usually watch. It could come tonight when Seattle plays San Francisco. I really don't want to get caught up in the "it just happened" syndrome, so I will bypass saying Panthers/Packers or Chiefs/Titans even though they might be the top two. I'm going to say Packers/Chiefs from two weeks ago because everyone thought they were getting Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers, but instead got Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Moore. Moore went toe-to-toe with Rodgers, but Green Bay grinded out the 31-24 victory in a game that felt like a heavyweight fight.

The Most Exciting Upcoming Game: Whether you like it or not, it's got to be Chiefs/Patriots on December 8th. The two teams played TWO instant classics last season. The Chiefs are 6-4 behind a laundry-list amount of injuries and finding new ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Patriots have rode the 3rd easiest schedule to a 8-1 record, but got exposed by Baltimore last week. Let's not get carried away though, this is New England's conference until it isn't and this game could be a statement or a changing of the guard. Not sure which, but it will likely be one.

MVP: I think there's three obvious candidates and would be four if Patrick Mahomes hadn't missed two games. I'm going with Russell Wilson over Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson and Christian McCaffery. I'll eat my crow and admit I've been wrong on Jackson, but Wilson has been lights out this season, too. Wilson only sits ninth in passing yards, but that's the most overrated QB statistic there is. What is not overrated from Wilson is his 22-to-1 touchdown-interception ratio. That's absurd. He also has the league's best QB rating. Wilson has also led the Seahawks to a record of 7-2 despite having the 27th most efficient defense.

Defensive Player of The Year: At first, I was a bit skeptical of the Steelers surrendering a first round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick when it looked they could be in the market for a QB next year. They still could be, but Fitzpatrick has been worth the trade and then some so far. Fitzpatrick has five interceptions, two forced fumbles and to touchdowns since coming to Pittsburgh. He's guided a Steelers defense that is making up for it's beat up and inefficient offense with one of the league's most efficient defenses. I also think Nick Bosa, TJ Watt and Chandler Jones should be considered in play for DPOY.

Coach of The Year: It's Kyle Shanahan hands down. The offensive guru has quietly taken the 49ers to 8-0. The 49ers are currently the most efficient team in the NFL and it's really not that close. Their offense has been Alex Smith-esque, but productive, while their defense has been salty. I think you also have to consider Mike Tomlin because he's been without two of his superstars. Ron Rivera has hardly missed a beat with Kyle Allen, Matt LaFleur already appears more competent than Mike McCarthy ever was and Jon Gruden has the Raiders above .500, but this honor is Shanahan's to lose.

Offensive Rookie of The Year: Josh Jacobs is a grown man. He has been exactly what the Raiders and Derek Carr needed. The rookie from Alabama has pounded the pumpkin to 811 yards and seven scores. He's done so behind the league's most expensive offensive line, but still, it's great numbers, especially for a rookie. Redskins WR Terry McLaurin has also been really good, but he's on a bad team.

Defensive Rookie of The Year: Remember when people were actually dumb enough to think Nick Bosa sitting out at Ohio State last season would impact his NFL career? Well, it didn't. The second overall pick has been a monster for the 8-0 49ers, tallying 7.5 sacks, a forced fumble. Devin Bush also has a case for DROY, but I'm giving it to the better Bosa.

Predicted AFC Playoff Teams: Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Bills, Steelers
I think the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans are essential locks to make the playoffs. The battle for the last two spots goes between the Bills, Steelers, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Colts and perhaps even the Browns, whose schedule gets easier. Pittsburgh is improving and has a generous schedule. I also trust the Bills to grind out wins in ugly fashion more than I trust Ryan Tannehill, Phillip Rivers, Jon Gruden, Brian Hoyer and Baker Mayfield.

Predicted NFC Playoff Teams: Packers, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Vikings, Seahawks.
The NFC is way more competitive. I think the Rams, Panthers and Eagles could be playoff teams, but they've struggled to stay consistent and that will keep them out the playoffs.

AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Chiefs
This might not be the popular pick, but hear me out. The Chiefs are 6-4, but have lost those four games by a combined 23 points and have been ravaged by injuries. I firmly believe the Chiefs at their peak, along with the Texans, Colts, Ravens and maybe the Steelers are better than New England. Now I know somebody is going to ignorantly say "But Trevor, the Ravens handled the Patriots a few weeks ago,". Which, they did, but we've seen this before. The Patriots are my pick to win the AFC until they don't.

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Saints
Now I've been bragging on the 49ers, but I think they're still a year away. Instead, we finally get the Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees NFC Title Game we all deserve. Don't let the Saints loss to the Falcons force you to take a trip to Ignoranceville. Losses like that happen in the NFL. The Saints are fine. I yearn for this matchup and hope it happens. Give me the Packers to win fair and square and give the Saints fan nothing to complain about. Although, it would be funny if they lost the NFC Championship Game on a pass interference call against them. Maybe I am just a bad person.

Super Bowl 54: Packers over Patriots
The NFL's 100th season concludes with two of the greatest QB's to ever play the game. Aaron Rodgers has yet to capture his second ring, but this could be his best chance. I'll also take whatever the over would be on ridiculously soft roughing-the-passer calls in this game.

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