Wednesday, March 8, 2017

AL CENTRAL PREVIEW

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AL CENTRAL
                    When Cleveland beat Toronto in last year's American League Championship Series, it marked the fourth time in five years that a team from the AL Central clinched the American League Pennant. This year's Indians team returns basically everyone, but so does Detroit. The Royals have the "win now" philosophy. The Twins are hoping to see maturation from it's young players and the Sox sold the house to rebuild it.


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                                                    CLEVELAND INDIANS
                                         2016: 94-67 
                                  2017 Vegas Line-93.5
                                         
                                         Projected Lineup
                                                            1) 1B Carlos Santana
                                        2) 2B Jason Kipnis
                                                            3) SS Francisco Lindor
                                                            4) DH Edwin Encarnacion (NEW)
                                                            5) 3B Jose Ramirez 
                                                            6) OF Michael Brantley
                                                            7) OF Tyler Naquin 
                                                            8) OF Lonnie Chissenhall
                                                            9)   C Yan Gomes

                                                              Projected Pitchers
                                        1) Korey Kluber
                                                            2) Carlos Carrasco
                                                            3) Danny Salazar
                                                            4) Trevor Bauer
                                                            5) Josh Tomlin/Zach McAllister
                                      
                                              Key in The Pen
                                        SU) Andrew Miller
                                                           CL) Cody Allen

  Is there a more talented team in the American League? I think not. The defending pennant champs return darn near everyone from a team that was perhaps a rain delay away from winning a World Series. The only missing piece from this team is the near hero of Game 7. Rajai Davis, who signed with Oakland this past offseason. The top four of this teams lineup is as good as any. Jason Kipnis came on late in the postseason and Francisco Lindor might be the best young player in the game right now. I look for him to have a MVP caliber year this year. The Indians also made what I felt was the best free agency signing of the offseason. Nabbing DH Edwin Encarnacion away from AL rival Toronto. Encarnacion gives the Indians a lot of power in their cleanup. Oh, and this teams rotation might also be one of the best top to bottom. The weakness in this rotation will more than likely be either Josh Tomlin or Zach McAllister. but Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar are more than capable of carrying the load for the team because they can rely on their bullpen that consists of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. This is also one of the best bullpens in the business.



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                                      DETROIT TIGERS
                                      2016: 86-75
                                 2017 Vegas Line-83.5

                                        Projected Lineup
                                      1) 2B Ian Kinsler
                                                         2) OF JD Martinez
                                                         3) 1B Miguel Cabrera
                                                         4) DH Victor Martinez
                                                         5) OF Justin Upton
                                                         6) 3B Nick Castellanos
                                                         7) OF Tyler Collins
                                                         8)    C James McCann
                                                         9)  SS Jose Iglesias

                                                             Projected Rotation
                                                          1) Justin Verlander
                                                          2) Jordan Zimmerman
                                                          3) Michael Fulmer
                                                          4) Daniel Norris
                                                          5) Anibal Sanichez

                                                              Key in The Pen
                                                              SU-Justin Wilson
                                                              CL-Francisco Rodriguez

This is a veteran heavy team that returns just about everybody from last year. The Tigers are going to have to rely on it's top half of the lineup. I'm not sure that Collins or McCann in particular are going to be super strong this year. This year also has a solid rotation led by Verlander, who was a CY Young Award finalist last year. But the key to their rotation is going to be Jordan Zimmerman. In 2016, Zimmerman signed with Detroit coming from Washington, he started 5-0 before going 4-7 the rest of  the year while being plagued by injuries. His ERA was just below 5.00, thats certainly not what Detroit is paying him to do. I also expect defending AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer to have a breakout year, but the bullpen might cause some headaches.

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KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2016 Record:81-81
2017 Vegas Line-74.5

Projected Lineup
1) SS Alcides Escobar
                                                                2) OF Lorenzo Cain
                                                                3) 3B Mike Moustakas
                                                                4) 1B Eric Hosmer
                                                                5) DH Jorge Soler (NEW)
                                                                6) OF Alex Gordon
                                                                7)   C Salvador Perez
                                                                8) OF Brandon Moss (NEW)
                                                                9) 2B Raul Mondesi

                                                              Projected Rotation
                                           1) Danny Duffy
                                                                2) Ian Kennedy
                                                                3) Jason Hammel (NEW)
                                                                4) Nathan Karns (NEW)
                                                                5) Travis Wood (NEW)

                                                              Key in The Pen
                                          Relief-Matt Strahm
                                                               Setup-Joakim Soria
                                                               Closer-Kelvin Herrera

Just two years after winning the World Series, the Royals are in win-now mode. Dayton Moore and Ned Yost were smart enough to know that 2017 could be do or die for the Royals with impending free agency potentially dismantling the team in 2018. The Royals parted ways with key pieces such as Jarrod Dyson and Wade Davis. The team will also be dealing with the tragic loss of starting pitcher Yordano Ventura. Despite all this the Royals have made some sneaky good acquisitions in the offseason. Adding power in Brandon Moss, raw potential with Jorge Soler and a veteran to the rotation (Jason Hammel). The biggest liability for the Royals could very well be at second base. Raul Mondesi has tremendous upside and is solid defensively, but needs to fine tune his offense. The Royals paid Danny Duffy a lot of money to be their ace of the future. Only time will tell if he was worth it or not. Ian Kennedy also needs to improve (at least slightly), Jason Hammel must stay healthy and the four and five pitchers need to at least not be terrible (like last year). This team lost a lot of games last year because of bad pitching and failure to score runs. They must change both of those if they want to be successful in 2017.


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CHICAGO WHITE SOX
2016 Record: 78-84
2017 Vegas Line-68.5

Projected Lineup
                                                            1) OF Charlie Tilson
                                                            2) SS Yoan Moncada (NEW)
                                                            3) OF Melky Cabrera
                                                            4) 1B Jose Abreu
                                                            5) 3B Todd Frazier
                                                            6) OF Avisail Garcia
                                                            7) DH Cody Asche (NEW)
                                                            8)    C Geovany Soto (NEW)
                                                            9) 2B Tim Anderson 

                                                             Projected Rotation
                                                            1) Jose Quintana
                                                            2) James Shields
                                                            3) Carlos Rodon
                                                            4) Miguel Gonzalez
                                                            5) Derek Holland (NEW)

                                        Key in The Pen
                                        Setup-Nate Jones
                                                            Relief-Dan Jennings
                                                            Closer-Dave Robertson

That other team in Chicago has finally begun it's rebuilding process. Last year the White Sox started the year 23-10 before the wheels fell off. Their ace, Chris Sale threw a temper tantrum that would have made a five year old proud because he didn't like the teams throwback jerseys, they were dinged up and eventually Robin Ventura got canned. The White Sox responded to their roller coaster season by blowing the whole thing up. Adam Eaton was traded to the Nationals and they dealt Chris Sale to the Red Sox. What many people will probably fail to realize is that the White Sox got three of baseballs top 16 prospects in that trade (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito), They also have two other prospects ranked in the top 100 (Reynaldo Lopez and Carson Fulmer) so this year might be dark, but the future is bright for the White Sox. Moncada is traditionally a second baseman, who can also catch and play third. He is predicted to start at shortstop this year. Only time will tell if he pans out, I think he will. Despite it's weaknesses the team does have some strengths with power hitters Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier and speedster Tim Anderson. Carlos Rodon and Jose Quintana need to carry this team's rotation. Derek Holland is average at best and James Shields is overrated.

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Minnesota Twins
2016 Record: 59-103
2017 Vegas Line-75.5

Projected Lineup
                                                            1) 2B Brian Dozier 
                                                            2) SS Jorge Polanco
                                                            3) 1B Joe Mauer
                                                            4) 3B Miguel Sano
                                                            5) OF Max Kepler
                                                            6) DH Kennys Vargas
                                                            7) OF Byron Buxton
                                                            8) OF Eddie Rosario
                                                            9)   C Jason Castro (NEW)

Projected Rotation
                                                              1) Ervin Santana 
                                                              2) Hector Santiago
                                                              3) Kyle Gibson
                                                              4) Phil Hughes
                                                              5) Jose Berrios

Key in The Pen
Relief-Trevor May
Closer-Glen Perkins
Closer-Brandon Kintzler

The Twins missed out on a wild card spot by just a few games in 2015. They responded in 2016 by posting the worst record in Major League Baseball. The Twins have a lot of young talent  (Dozier, Buxton, Sano). The challenge is going to be keeping them healthy and making sure they improve. Second Baseman Brian Dozier is one of the most underrated players in Major League Baseball. Dozier had a monster year in 2016 (.268 AVG, 42 HRS, 99 RBI, .340 OBP and 18 SB). They will need the same production from him. The biggest weakness on their team will undoubtedly be its pitching staff. Their rotation is pedestrian at best. Ervin Santana is the only projected starter who boasted an ERA of under 5 last year. This could be their achilles heel.


FINAL THOUGHTS
This is the easiest division in American League to pick the winner of. The biggest battle here will be the battle for 2nd. Detroit returns everybody and is bolstered by a solid pitching staff. The Royals made some solid acquisitions that put them in prime position. The Twins should improve on their dismal 2016 campaign and the White Sox will be the cellar dwellar of this division while they rebuild. 


                                                        PREDICTIONS
1) Cleveland-Too much talent returning from a team that almost won it all to not consider them the favorite. Should have best record in American League

2) Detroit-Returns everybody from a team that was the first team out of the Wild Card last year. Very solid pitching staff puts them in prime position for a Wild Card

3) Kansas City-Boom or bust in Kansas City. Team needs to score runs. Bottom half of rotation needs to improve from last year

4) Minnesota-Solid offensive talent, pedestrian pitching equals fourth place finish

5) Chicago-Tough year ahead for Sox fans, but 2018 should be better. There's always another team in Chicago they could cheer for.

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