Kansas Lottery 300: Playing the playoff lottery

(Photo Courtesy of Wikipedia)

It's fitting that this race is named the Kansas Lottery 300. The lottery benefits those who gamble. Gamble too much and it will hurt you. Gamble just right and the payoff could be huge. Will that happen in Saturday's Xfinity race, which will serve as the first of three races in the Round of 8? Time will tell. Win today and you're racing championship while also having two weeks to prepare your car for the grand finale at Homestead. Struggle today and you're playing catchup. I cannot overstate how important today's race is and perhaps most importantly, the start of today's race.

Lap 1 of last year's race was crazy and saw championship contenders Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, Christopher Bell and Austin Cindric get caught up in an accident that ruined their days while John Hunter Nemechek went onto claim his first Xfinity Series victory. So what will the first lap look like?

"I think early in the race you want to try to make sure you can make it to the end," Custer said.

Last year, both Custer and Bell were put behind the eight-ball after Kansas and had to peel off respective wins at Texas and Phoenix. This year, two-thirds of the Xfinity Series "Big Three" come into today with near-full race worth cushions, but as they learned last year, that can change in a hurry.

"We have a really good buffer," said Custer, who comes in with a 36-point buffer, "At the same time, anything can happen."

So how aggressive will these playoff drivers be? That could depend on the situation. Custer sits +36, so he might not be overly aggressive and he might not need to thanks his recent speed on 1.5 mile tracks.

But how aggressive will Tyler Reddick be? The defending Xfinity champion comes in to Saturday with a 30 point cushion, but anybody who has watched Reddick knows that being conservative is not his forte.

"Instead of being 130 percent aggressive, I think I'll just be 100 percent aggressive," Reddick said.

While Reddick, Bell and Custer come into Kansas with the mindset of just not letting anything bad happen, five other drivers will be scratching and clawing for every single position. Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, Chase Briscoe, Michael Annett and Noah Gragson will begin this round with just 12 points separating them. If the "Big Three" do what they've done all year, that leaves room for just one of the aforementioned six.

So which one of those five drivers could be the one to watch to at Kansas?

Keep an eye on Chase Briscoe, who begins the Round of 8 four points below the cutline. The Stewart-Haas driver claimed a victory earlier this season at Iowa, a track, like Kansas, grip and tire wear usually plays a large factor. Briscoe, a dirt racer at heart, is keen to drive the cushion and attempt to make the topside work and Kansas tends to reward those who make the top side work.

"It's one of the places that moves around a lot, which is kind of my style. It's always a good racetrack because you have options and you can throw slidejobs here," Briscoe said.

Don't discount some of the non-championship contenders either such as Nemechek, Harrison Burton or Ross Chastain. Nemechek won last year's race and Chastain won the truck race at Kansas in May, so both know how to win in the Sunflower State.

Who will learn how to win here today?

The green flag for the Kansas Lottery will drop shortly after 2 p.m on NBC.

Xfinity Round of 8 Playoff Standings

1. 20 Christopher Bell 3062 (+48)

2. 00 Cole Custer 3050 (+36)

3. 2 Tyler Reddick 3044 (+30)

4. 22 Austin Cindric 3017 (+3)

5. 7 Justin Allgaier (-3)

6. 98 Chase Briscoe (-4)

7. 1 Michael Annett (-8)

8. 9 Noah Gragson (-12)