Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Composite Preseason Football Rankings: Class 3A & 4A.


Preseason football rankings are the best. OK--not really, but it gives us something to look at, so that's cool. Three major media publications; The Des Moines Register, The Cedar Rapids Gazette and Radio Iowa compile weekly rankings throughout the high school football season. Last year I compiled a composite preseason football ranking by combining the three sets of rankings. I then continued to do that throughout the season. So why don't we do it again?

The scoring system behind this pretty easy. A first place ranking receives 10 points, nine points for second, eight for third and so on all the way down to 10th. The Cedar Rapids Gazette uses a six-voter points system for their rankings, so their rankings occasionally include ties. If there is a tie I divide the points between the spots. For example, if there is a tie for 1st, each team gets 9.5 points rather than 10.

For the preseason, I will break the rankings up into classes per blog Lets start with Class 3A & 4A

The points received by each team is in parentheses.

CLASS 4A
1. Dowling Catholic (30)--The Maroons were the unanimous top pick in Class 4A and will certainly be the favorite to capture the state title, which would be a record-setting seventh consecutive. They lost their quarterback Zach Watters and 2,000-yard rusher Jayson Murray, but they conveniently replaced Murray with former Southeast Polk standout and Iowa commit Gavin Williams.

2. Ankeny Centennial (22)- Three different teams received a runner-up vote, but The Jaguars had the most overall points. Ankeny Centennial defeated Dowling in the regular season, but never got a chance to end Dowling's streak because they were stunned by Southeast Polk in the first round. Could that be motivation for them this year?

3. Valley, WDM (21)-Valley also received a second-place vote. The Tigers got the rematch with Dowling that Centennial never did. Dowling took care of Valley, ending their season with a 31-9 quarterfinal defeat. The Tigers graduated quarterback Beau Lombardi and 1,200 yard rusher Creighton Mitchell, but it's Valley, they will be fine.

4. Waukee (19)-Waukee received a second place vote from Radio Iowa, but an eighth place vote from The Register. The Warriors return 2,000 yard passer and 1,000 yard rusher Mitch Randall, so they should be fun to watch this year.

5. Iowa City West (17)-The highest ranked non-Des Moines area team received votes of third, sixth and seventh. They had a pretty senior-heavy lineup last season, but they return standout junior quarterback Marcus Morgan, who already has an offer from Iowa State.

6. Cedar Falls (15.5)- Last year's state runner-up was pegged at a tie for third, sixth and eighth in the preseason rankings. They went toe-to-toe with Dowling last season in the 'ship before losing 22-16. They will have to replace a 1,000 yard rusher (Sam Gary) and a 1,000 yard receiver (Logan Wolf), but they return 2,000 yard passer Cael Loecher.

7. Bettendorf (15)- The Bulldogs were ranked third by The Register, but received rankings of seventh and eighth by Radio Iowa and The Gazette respectively. Bettendorf's lost just two games last year--to the state finalists, Dowling & Cedar Falls, by a combined 12 points including a heartbreaking 41-34 state semifinal loss to Dowling.

8. Cedar Rapids Kennedy (14)- Kennedy finished 6-4 last season with losses to Valley, Prairie, Bettendorf and Iowa City West by a combined 151-42, but they were ranked ahead of Valley in the Radio Iowa poll and Iowa City West in The Des Moines Register poll. The Register also put them ahead of Cedar Falls.

9. Ankeny (8)- The Hawks started the season 1-4, finished the regular season with four straight wins, then fell to Valley 24-21 in the first round of the playoffs. They return quarterback Jase Bauer (1,231 yards, 13 TD's, 9 INTS), leading rusher Cael Boyd (979 yards, 13 touchdowns) and leading receiver Brody Brecht (30 rec, 513 yards, 6 TD's). I think is a team that will be much improved, I probably would have ranked them ahead of Kennedy like The Gazette did.

10. Pleasant Valley (1)- Three different schools received a vote for the final spot. Pleasant Valley, like Ankeny, started the season 1-4, won four in and a row and then lost their postseason game, a 31-14 defeat to Bettendorf

     Dubuque Senior (1)- The Rams went 3-6 and their six losses came by an average of 21 points-per-game, but that didn't stop Radio Iowa from giving them a 10th place vote.

     Fort Dodge (1)-The Dodgers offense was a touchdown waiting to happen last year. They averaged 43 points a contest during the regular season. Their defense was pretty salty, too, allowing just 16.5 points per game until a 41-0 first round defeat to Dowling.

CLASS 3A

1. Western Dubuque (30)- The unanimous number one pick suffered three losses last season. Two of which came to eventual runner up Cedar Rapids Xavier. The return of their starting quarterback and their top three rushers make them the early favorite to dethrone Xavier in Class 3A.

2. Solon (26)- Solon's lone blemish in 2018 was a 48-13 shellacking to Western Dubuque in the first round of the playoffs. The Spartans have an FCS committed quarterback (Cam Miller, North Dakota State) to complement a pair of FCS committed wide receivers (Jace Andregg, UNI and A.J. Coons, South Dakota State). This team should be able to score points, lots of them.

3. CR Xavier (24)-The defending 3A champs graduated dual threat signal-caller Quinn Schulte and 1,300-yard rusher Braden Stovie, but still received a second, third and fourth place ranking. Teams that know how to win, typically win and Xavier probably won't be an exception to that.

4. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (20)-The Warrior played a tough schedule last season and earned the number one seed in the state semifinalist despite a 28-point loss to an undefeated state semifinalist Lewis Central. Outside of the LC loss, the Warriors scored an average of 32.4 points a game. The offense should continue to march along under the guidance of signal-caller Daniel Wright.

5. North Scott (19)-North Scott's season was book-ended by two losses. A 28-7 opening night defeat to Iowa City West and a 45-21 defeat to Western Dubuque in a state quarterfinal. The defense was stingy in between, allowing just 79 points in that nine-game span and never allowed more than 15 points. Can the defense carry them again?

6. Pella (15)-The Dutch lost two games by a combined nine points. They chucked the pigskin a lot last season, including 52-times in their postseason loss to Cedar Rapids Xavier. They graduated 1,000-yard passer Ryan Gustafson, but the Dutch always plug in play, which is a large reasoning for their fifth, sixth and seventh place rankings

7. Lewis Central (9)-The Titans were not ranked by Radio Iowa for some reason. I understand that they lost star quarterback Max Duggan and his father/head coach Jim Duggan, but the Titans are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The Register pegged them at sixth and The Gazette at seventh. I think that's probably an accurate rating, but definitely not putting them in the top ten seems a bit silly.

8. Spencer (4)-The Tigers suffered three losses last season, two of which came at the hands of Sergeant Bluff-Luton. They return stud running back Isaiah Spencer, but they reside in the daunting District 1 that also contains Sergeant Bluff, Bishop Heelan and Denison-Schleswig.

   Decorah (4)-Decorah also suffered just three losses, two of which were blowouts to eventual champion Xavier. They graduated their quarterback (Jace Johnson) and leading rusher (Drake Shelton) so there's questions for the Vikings. They'll get the chance to answer them against Xavier on September 6th.

  Dallas Center-Grimes (4)-This is an interesting vote. The Mustangs went 1-8 last season and their lone victory was a 14-13 win over a Perry squad that finished 0-9 but Radio Iowa ranked them seventh. They return a quarterback who threw twice as many picks as he did touchdowns and the three running backs that scored all five of their rushing touchdowns. Yes, this team was ranked ahead of Lewis Central.

11. West Delaware (3)-West Delaware began the season 3-0, lost four in a row, then won two in a row, but missed the playoffs. They showed enough promise at times in 2019 to earn an eighth place ranking by The Des Moines Register, but they will have a new quarterback in 2019.

     Bishop Heelan (3)-Bishop Heelan came into the final week of the regular season at 7-1. They then lost the regular season finale to Spencer and was shutout by Sergeant Bluff-Luton in the playoffs. The Crusaders have not won a playoff game since their victory over Creston in a 2014 state semifinal. Will they snap that skid this year?

13. Harlan (2)-We don't know much about Harlan this season, except that they will most likely be their usual, stellar self. There are lots of questions for the Cyclones this year with many key pieces to replace, but The Cedar Rapids Gazette trusts Curt Bladt enough to rank the Cyclones ninth. Smart choice.

14. Carroll (1): The Tigers had a weird season last year. They started the season with a 1-3 record, but peeled off five straight wins to win their wild district. They won their district despite a 13-16 touchdown-interception ratio and just nine rushing touchdowns. Good news for them is they return many pieces and should be much better. They might have been a year away last year.

     Clear Creek-Amana (1): The Clippers were spearheaded by their defense last season in their 8-2 campaign. They allowed just over 12 points a contest and shut their opponents out three times. They return their top tackler, J.J Denny and Division I prospect T.J. Bollers, so their defense will likely carry them again.

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