You may or may not have read my blog from yesterday/today on a composite pre-season ranking of all six high school football classes, if you did not, you can view it here.
http://trevorstakeonsports.blogspot.com/2018/08/a-composite-preseason-high-school.html
We are just a few days away from the start of the high school football season and I'm super stoked for it.
This season has me curious about a lot of things. I've been asking myself many questions, but here are the 10 questions that I'm the most curious to find out the answer for.
In no order.
1) How many touchdowns does Max Duggan have?
You might have heard of Lewis Central quarterback Max Duggan. If you haven't, I will fill you in. He's good at football, so good that he's committed to play at TCU. Duggan is entering his senior year and the expectations for himself and the Titans are lofty for his final prep season. All eyes will be on him throughout the season, so how will he perform? Last year, he had just under 1300 total yards and 17 scores in an injury-shortened season. If Duggan, can stay healthy, one would assume that he scores more than that. I'm going to say he doubles it with let's say 35 touchdowns.
2) What about Cameron Baker?
Max Duggan is not the only really good high school football player in Council Bluffs. Thomas Jefferson running back Cameron Baker is also a Division I recruit who has lofty expectations coming into this season. Baker, like Duggan was marred by injuries in his junior season, but Baker's came during the wrestling season rather than the football season. If you've never watched Baker play, I strongly suggest you try to do it this year. The kid is a beast, there's a video on YouTube that displays that. Last year, Baker ran for just under 1900-yards and 20 scores. I don't see any reason he can't eclipse 2000-yards and find the endzone at least 25-times in his senior campaign.
3) Who gives Fremont-Mills the best run?
Class 8-Man District 7 is an intriguing district, but the consensus I have gotten from most people is that Fremont-Mills is the favorite. The expectations at Fremont-Mills this year are incredibly high, even for a team that always has incredibly high expectations. I'm not saying this team will be the 2011 team (I doubt any team ever will be), but the pieces are there to being play in the final game of the season. However, who is going to stand up to the Knights and possibly joust them? Stanton, Bedford and Sidney would be the three most likely candidates in the district although East Mills could be a wild card. Sidney has the size to play the type of physical game that we are accustomed to seeing FM play, but it also sounds like they are going to sling it some this year, that benefits Stanton and Bedford. If I was betting man, I would bet that Stanton is the most likely to dethrone them. Good thing I'm not a betting man.
4) Is this East Atchison's year to win the 275 Conference?
The consensus from my friends who are more knowledgeable of Northwest Missouri than I am is that Mound City is the favorite to take the 275 crown after losing a heartbreaker to Rock Port last year. The Panthers return some key pieces from last year's team and have the pedigree. The defending conference champs, Rock Port boasted an undefeated regular season last year, but they lost their starting quarterback (Jase Hughes) and stud wideout (Ryan Dewhirst), so they have some big shoes to fill. East Atchison has had some solid teams in years past, but they have not been able to get past Mound City and Rock Port, but I think this year is their best chance. They return their top passer, top rusher and top receiver. Time will tell if the Wolves can take down Rock Port and Mound City, whom they face in back-to-back weeks.
5) Who will replace Nick Foss?
There is no doubt that Harlan's Nick Foss was a boss. Foss shined in every sport he participated in, but he was something special in football. The Minnesota State-Mankato commit ran for just over 2000-yards and added 32 touchdowns. He also added nearly 500-yards and four scores receiving. Foss's presence will most likely be missed, but this is not the first time Harlan has replaced a player of his caliber and it pry will not be the last. The question is who steps up and how long does it take them to break through? The Cyclones top returning rusher, Caleb Bieker ran for 253-yards and two scores on just 58-carries last season. I would assume that he's going to get the bulk of the carries this year and if he does, he will have big shoes to fill.
6) Who comes out of Class A District 9?
I cringed when this district came out. AHSTW, Southwest Valley, and St. Albert were all playoff teams and competitive ones at that. AHSTW was 8-0 going into their final regular season game, Southwest Valley had a perfect regular season and St. Albert made it to a state semi-final last season. Not to mention Earlham probably could have been a playoff team if not for a one-point loss to eventual Class 1A champ Van Meter. All four teams lose some important pieces from last season, Southwest Valley loses nearly every single starter, St. Albert must replace a legendary senior class, AHSTW graduated their starting quarterback, R.J. Harris and Earlham lost their leading passer and rusher. This is a tough district to predict. If I had to give an edge to someone, I might lean towards Earlham or maybe AHSTW, or maybe St. Albert. I just don't know.
7) Who wins the Grand River Conference?
North Andrew, Stanberry and Worth County have combined for the last seven Missouri 8-Man state titles, so you have to assume it's likely one of those three gets it done this season, but who? Last season's Worth County squad was one of legendary proportions, but many of the pieces to that well-oiled machine are gone. North Andrew lost a handful of pieces from last year while Stanberry returns their top passer (Cole Durbin) and leading rusher (Trey Schieber). The fine folks at Straight-Up Sports have the Bulldogs ranked as the top team in 8-man, I can see why. The wildcard in this conference is King City, they have lofty expectations, but have the misfortune of having to take on North Andrew, Worth County and Stanberry on the road this season. That's brutal.
8) How wild does 8-Man District 8 become and who wins it?
I have made it clear that I'm stoked to see any team and/or district. But Iowa 8-Man District 8 is totally up in the air, or at least it looks that way right now. Audubon had a dominant team last year, but their one-two-three punch of Tyler Riebhoff, Nolan Smith and Josh Lange is gone. CAM returns just about everybody, but the one-player they don't return might be the one they miss the most in star quarterback Thomas Hensley. Exira-EHK battled injuries last season but returns a lot. Glidden-Ralston had a down-year last season but bring back some key pieces and Woodbine must replace the man that is Joey Wolf, but they have a pair of Pryors (Wyatt and Lane) that can razzle and dazzle. This is going to be a fun district.
9) Which zero or one-win team from a year ago makes the biggest leap?
Seven schools in area districts; ACGC, Essex, Murray, Nodaway Valley, Red Oak, Seymour-Moulton-Udell and West Harrison went winless or won just a single game last year. An eighth team, Mormon Trail did not even field a team, but will this year. I find it hard to believe that all these teams will have the same result. ACGC has a new coach and returns their leading rusher, but they still have some pieces to fill, Essex returns just about everyone but finds themselves in a tough district. Nodaway Valley lost their starting quarterback and is a resident in the aforementioned Class A District 9. West Harrison is in the wild 8-Man District 8 and Murray, Mormon Trail and Seymour-Moulton-Udell all reside in 8-Man District 6, so at least two of them will get a win. Meanwhile, in Class 2A, Red Oak returns their starting quarterback, all 952-rushing yards from last season, their top receiver and their top-five tacklers. I think they are the most likely to see a two or three game win improvement, but I also would not count out Essex and there's a chance that one team in 8-Man 6 wins at least two games thanks to the way their schedule plays out.
10) How will the RPI work?
Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably know that the IAHSAA changed the postseason qualification format for the 2018 season. The fine folks at the IAHSAA opted to move on from the two automatic postseason qualifiers from each district that we have seen the past two seasons. Now, the only way to guarantee a postseason berth is to win your district. We can debate whether that is a good thing or a bad thing, but that's irrelevant. What is relevant is that the new format means a team could finish 7-2, second in their district and not make the postseason. This not super likely, but it is possible. The major differences from this format and the old one are two things, 1) The whole season is taken into effect rather than just district play, which is huge and could be good or bad, depending on how you start your season. 2) A 14-13 win counts the same as a 70-0 win and a victory over an undefeated Class 4A top-ranked Dowling Catholic would count the same as a victory over a top-ranked team in Class A. That scenario should not matter, but I'm still not a fan of it. With the RPI, it is possible that we could see some districts that have three or four teams make the postseason while other districts could have just one representative.
I don't love or hate the RPI yet, but I am curious to see how it plays out.
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