Friday, December 15, 2017

Ranking the Power Five College Football Head Coaching Hires

Eleven power five programs made head coaching changes this offseason, seven of those programs because they fired their previous coach. Four schools were forced to find a new coach after their previous head coach had left for another head coaching gig. Let's take a look at which programs got their head coaching hire right and which programs did not.

DISCLAIMER-This is only Power Five schools (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC). I also did not include Ole Miss promoting interim head coach Matt Luke, because he had been there all year.

#11 Arizona State-Herm Edwards
Resume-Head Coach with New York Jets (2001-2005, 39-41) and Kansas City Chiefs (2006-2008,15-33)
Previous Head Coach-Todd Graham, fired after six seasons. (46-31).

This hiring makes no sense at all. Edwards has spent the last eight years as an analyst at ESPN and has not coached at the collegiate level since he was an assistant at San Jose State in 1987. There is no indication whether or not Edwards is capable of recruiting at the level it will take to be competitive in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have stated that Edwards' role will be more of a CEO type and that his coordinators will have a large say, the problem is they currently are looking for both an offensive and defensive coordinator. This hire is almost guaranteed to blow up in Arizona State's face. I don't see Herm or the AD that hired him lasting more than three years.

#10 Tennessee-Jeremy Pruitt
Resume-Defensive Coordinator at Florida State (2013), Georgia (2014-2015) and Alabama (2016-2017)
Previous Head Coach-Butch Jones fired after five seasons (34-27).

To be fair, I think Jeremy Pruitt has the potential to be a successful head coach. However, given the mess that the Tennessee coaching search was it would have taken Jim Harbaugh, Nick Saban, Bill Belichick, Urban Meyer or bringing Bear Bryant back to life and hiring him to make this hire rank high on my list. I don't see how Vols fans look at Pruitt as a better candidate than Greg Schiano was, but Pruitt has built good defenses wherever he goes and has spent the past two season guiding Alabama's defense. Pruitt will know what it takes to beat Alabama but will be expected to win and win quickly in Knoxville or he will face the same fate as his predecessor, Butch Jones.

#9 Oregon State-Jonathan Smith
Resume-Offensive Coordinator at Washington (2014-2017)
Previous Head Coach-Gary Andersen resigned after two and a half seasons (7-23).

Jonathan Smith is the perfect hire for Oregon State, he is number nine on this list because I do not know enough about him to put him any higher, but this is a heck of a lot better hire than the two ranked below it. Smith spent the last six years under the tutelage of Chris Petersen, one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers from 1998-2001. He led the Beavers to a Fiesta Bowl, so his hiring is a homecoming in Corvallis. Smith already hired Mike Riley to serve under him and possibly guide him in his first head coaching gig. The big task for Smith is going to be trying to compete with Oregon. Speaking of that. 
                                          
                                               #8 Oregon-Mario Cristobal
Resume-Head Coach at Florida International (2007-2012, 27-47), Assistant Head Coach at Alabama (2012-2016) and Co-Offensive Coordinator at Oregon (2017)
Previous Head Coach-Willie Taggart took the Florida State job after one season (7-5).

Remember when Oregon was cool and on the brink of a national title? They are now on their fourth head coach since 2013. Hiring Cristobal is a good football hire, but not the splash that you might expect from Oregon. The Duck's decision to keep the coaching hire in-house is an indication that they liked what they saw from Cristobal this year. He took Florida International to their first-ever bowl game and helped produce NFL-talent offensive lineman at Alabama. Cristobal will be expected to turn Oregon's offensive into one of the nation's productive, if not the most exciting. This isn't as sexy of a hire as luring in Kevin Sumlin, but it is a good football move.

#7 Arkansas-Chad Morris
Resume-Offensive Coordinator at Clemson (2011-2014), Head Coach at SMU (2015-2017, 14-22)
Previous Head Coach-Brett Bielema fired after five seasons (29-34).

Morris' record does not look impressive, but SMU went 1-11 the year before they hired Morris. He turned SMU around by going 5-7 and 7-5 in his last two seasons. He made the Mustangs a "fun to watch" football team averaging just over 40 points per game in 2017. Morris deserves credit for helping put Clemson on the map. Morris guided Clemson's offense to the Orange Bowl twice before he left. Morris has shown that he can recruit the Texas area which will be pivotal for Arkansas if they want to be able to compete with Alabama and LSU. His teams at SMU struggled to play defense, allowing 35.5 points per game in 2017. That type of defense doesn't breed success in the SEC, but at Arkansas, the main objective should be to bring a fun, entertaining brand of football. Which Morris should be capable of doing in Fayetteville.

#6 Mississippi State-Joe Moorhead
Resume-Head Coach at Fordham (2012-2015, 38-13), Offensive Coordinator at Penn State (2016-2017)
Previous Head Coach-Dan Mullen took the Florida job after nine seasons (69-46).

This hire would be ranked higher if Moorhead had experience as a head coach at a major program. He has had success just about everywhere he goes. Moorhead took a Fordham team that went 1-10 the year before he arrived and turned them into a perennial contender. Losing just 13 games in four seasons including five in his first. Moorhead then left Fordham to become offensive coordinator at Penn State and was the mastermind behind the success of Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. You could even argue that he saved James Franklin's job last year. Moorhead will finally have the chance to prove that he should have been considered for more major jobs. 

#5-Florida State-Willie Taggart
Resume-Head Coach at Western Kentucky (2010-2012, 16-20), South Florida (2013-2016, 24-25) and Oregon (2017, 7-5)
Previous Head Coach-Jimbo Fisher took the Texas A&M job after eight seasons (83-23).

This is Taggart's third head coaching job in the last three seasons, but it is definitely the best one he has had. Taggart succeded with very little at Western Kentucky, turned South Florida back into a winning a program and took Oregon from an abysmal 4-8 to a respectable 7-5 record. Taggart is from Florida and knows what it takes to be successful in the Sunshine State. He recruited the state while at South Florida and will have more resources at Florida State. Taggart never really has had the chance to play with a full deck yet. This could be it. He will be expected to win and win now or else his stint in Tallahassee may be short.

#4 Texas A&M-Jimbo Fisher
Resume-Head Coach at Florida State (2010-2017, 83-23)
Previous Head Coach-Kevin Sumlin fired after five seasons (51-26).

You would think that hiring a coach who has won 78 percent of his games and a national championship would be the best hire, but I don't think it is. Jimbo won a title at Florida State and kept the Seminoles relevant but there were seasons where they underachieved or disappointed. Much like Texas A&M did under Sumlin. Fisher has experience recruiting in Texas and also had success recruiting against Florida schools for in-state prospects much like he will have to recruit against the Texas schools for home-grown recruits. Fisher left Tallahassee due to a rift between him and the athletic department. Texas A&M has placed lofty expectations on itself since joining the SEC and if Fisher fails to live up to those expectations he could face a similar situation to what he faced at Florida State.

#3 Nebraska-Scott Frost
Resume-Offensive Coordinator at Oregon (2013-2015), head coach at Central Florida (2016-2017, 18-7)
Previous Head Coach-Mike Riley fired after three seasons (19-19).

Nebraska finally got a head coaching hire right, or at least it looks that way. The Cornhuskers did not overthink this hire and brought Frost back home. Frost built an exciting brand of football at Central Florida and took the Knights from winless to undefeated in just two seasons. Frost has played or coached under the minds of Tom Osborne, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden and Chip Kelly. He knows what it takes to be successful at Nebraska having previously done so as a player. Frost will need to be given time however as Riley left the program in utter disarray. Thinking that Frost will turn things around in anything less than three seasons is far-fetched. 

#2-Florida-Dan Mullen
Resume-Head Coach at Mississippi State (2009-2017, 69-46)
Previous Head Coach-Jim McElwain fired after three seasons (22-12).

This is a home-run hire for the Gators. Mullen was the offensive mastermind that led the Gators to two national championships as its offensive coordinator from 2005 to 2008. Mullen turned Mississippi State into a respectable program and will have any more resources at Florida than he did at Mississippi State. Florida should be expected to compete for the SEC East title immediately if they can fix their mess of a quarterback situation. Mullen developed Alex Smith, Tim Tebow and Dak Prescott at the college level and has always had decent quarterback play, so he should be expected to do the same in Gainesville.

#1 UCLA-Chip Kelly
Resume-Head Coach at Oregon (2009-2012, 46-7), Philadelphia Eagles (2013-2015, 26-21) and San Francisco (2016, 2-14)
Previous Head Coach-Jim Mora fired after six seasons (46-32)

UCLA hit a home run that Mike Trout would be proud of. Say what you want about Chip Kelly. Yes, he failed in the NFL, sure he's a jerk and different, but the dude won at the collegiate level and made Oregon cool. Kelly is renowned for his offensive innovation. UCLA has long been seen as the little brother of USC. UCLA hiring Kelly puts the Bruins on the map and gives them the opportunity to contend. At Oregon, Kelly proved that he was capable of recruiting the Los Angeles area and his name alone could be enough to help UCLA bring in some homegrown talent. I am going to go ahead and make the bold prediction that UCLA will make the playoffs under Kelly in the next five years.  

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