The first week of high school football season is just 38 days away, which means I think it's an appropriate time to start preparing for the 2019 season.
The success of many teams can often be attributed to how much production they return from the prior year or how much they graduated. It's not alway's a guarantee for a more successful season, but it is a strong indicator. For example, last year I pointed out that Treynor returned every single rushing yard from the 2017 season. The Cardinals went on to an 8-2 record in 2018 and claimed the district championship. Red Oak also returned every single rushing yard from their 2017 season and saw a three-win improvement last season.
I attempted to quantify the offensive production that each team in area districts return. Area Districts include Districts 1, 6, 7 and 8 in 8-Man, Districts 2, 8, 9 and 10 in Class A, Districts 8 and 9 in Class 1A, District 9 in Class 2A, Districts 1 and 9 in Class 3A and District 7 in Class 4A. I've already looked at Class 8-Man and Class A, now it's time to double down and focus on Class 1A & 2A.
For this project, I calculated the percentage of passing touchdowns, passing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and points that were accumulated by non-seniors. I then averaged the percentages of those eight categories to get an "average" percentage of production that each team returns. It's not a perfect system, but it's the best I could think of.
Now, onto the numbers and the districts. Teams' 2018 record is posted in parentheses. The percentage listed is the number of returning production calculated through the average of the eight categories.
DISCLAIMER: I went solely off QuikStats. This project does not calculate for incoming freshman or production last year that came from underclassmen who may not be playing this year. I have no way of knowing about these situations and cannot factor them into these numbers.
Class 1A District 8: 1. Mount Ayr (7-3) 77%, 2. ACGC (3-6) 75%, 3. Van Meter (11-1) 67%, 4. Panorama (5-4) 58%, 5. Clarinda (3-6) 50%, 6. West Central Valley (1-8) 4%
Van Meter might return the third-most production in the district, but they will be the favorite to win the district and might be one of the favorites for a state title. The Bulldogs return the dynamic duo of quarterback Anthony Potthoff and running back Ian Abrahamson. Abrahamson posted 2,005 yards and 24 scores last year while Pothoff threw for 1,300, ran for 1,000 and played a hand in 37 total touchdowns (24 passing and 13 rushing). The biggest loss for the Bulldogs comes in the wide receiver department where they return just 32 percent of production. Mount Ayr returns a lot of pieces from a playoff team including quarterback and leading rusher Payton Weehler. The Raiders also return their top three rushers (Weehler, Keelan Klommhaus, and Reas Knapp) and two-thirds of their 2018 receiving production.
ACGC's returning production is a bit deceptive. The Chargers completed just two passes last year for 41 yards and one score. All parties involved in the pair of receptions return, but the Chargers' offense primarily focuses on the ground game where they will return just 31 percent of their rushing production and will have to replace 1,000-yard rusher Ben Kingery. Clarinda comes into 2019 with a new head coach, former Northwest Missouri State, and Creston standout Collin Bevins. Bevins will be forced to replace the production of William Shull in the run game but will have Shull's younger brother, Michael to rely on in the passing game and the running game. Michael Shull will likely be complemented by Conner Brown, who is coming off an injury-shortened 2018 season, but produced well in 2017. Panorama returns all 1,590 passing yards that came from the duo of Luke South and Alejandro Mendez, 62 percent of it's rushing production and 31 percent of it's receiving production. West Central Valley will have many holes to fill from its 1-8 team, including quarterback Carson Wadle.
This district looks as if Mount Ayr and Van Meter will be the teams to beat again, but will there be a breakthrough team?
Class 1A District 9: 1. Treynor (8-2) 86%, 2. Cherokee, Washington (2-7) 83%, 3. East Sac County (5-4) 68%, 4. Underwood (5-4) 61%, 5. MVAOCOU (1-8) 18%, 6. Missouri Valley (4-5) 17%
Last year Treynor returned a large portion of its production, including 100 percent of it's rushing. They don't return quite that much this season, but the Cardinals are still sitting in a really good position. The Cardinals graduate 1,000 yard-rusher Kyle Christensen, but they return the dual-threat quarterback Jake Fisher, who threw for 880 yards and ran for 776 yards. Expect to see Fisher make even more improvements in the passing game because the Cardinals return 99 percent of their receiving production. Cherokee was rather young last season and took some bumps in their 2-7 season. The Braves return their starting quarterback as well as 96 percent of their receiving from their pass-happy offense. East Sac County will be forced to replace Garrett Bruce, who ran for over 1,700 yards and 19 scores, but the Raiders return quarterback Griff O'Neil and most of his receivers.
Underwood's explosive passing game will return quarterback Nick Ravlin as well as three of their top four receivers. The Eagles will be forced to replace leading rusher Kyler Rodenburg, but he's the only rusher they lose from 2018, so they have options. MVAOCOU returns one-third of it's rushing production, but they will have a new quarterback and new receivers in 2019. Missouri Valley loses Duke Kyle's presence in the ground game, but the Big Reds do return Nick Haynes, who was a beast in his own regard last year with 1,666 yards and 12 scores. The Big Reds return just 2 percent of their passing production and none of it's receiving production, but their offense is more ground-oriented, so the impact could be minimal.
Class 2A District 9: 1. Shenandoah (0-9) 83%, 2. Greene County (8-2) 63%, 3. Kuemper Catholic (5-5) 42%, 4. Atlantic (4-5) 40%, 5. OABCIG (7-3) 30%, 6. Red Oak (4-5) 23%
Shenandoah returns a lot from a team that was pretty young and transitioning into a new head coach. I expect the Mustangs to make a serious improvement this season thanks to the return of quarterback Kyle Cerven, 77 percent of the receiving production and 76 percent of their rushing production.
Greene County won a share of the district title last year, but I think they're the outright favorite this year. The Rams lose leading rusher Clint Dennhardt (851 yards and 15 touchdowns), which will likely mean increased production from Colby Kafer (776 yards and 8 touchdowns). The Rams also return signal-caller Brent Riley (2,242 yards and 22 touchdowns) and 51 percent of their receiving, including leading receiver Carter Morton (36 catches, 800 yards, 7 touchdowns). Greene County split the district title with Kuemper Catholic, who returns all of its' passing production, but just 42 percent of it's rushing and 5 percent of it's receiving.
Atlantic will be forced to replace the dynamic Chase Mullenix at quarterback, but the Trojans return two-thirds of their receiving production for whoever their next signal-caller is. OABCIG's air-raid offense will have a new signal-caller due to the graduation of Kaden Ladwig. Ladwig threw for 3,027 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2018 and was also the Falcons' leading rusher. Red Oak will return two-thirds of their headed rushing attack that racked up 2,186 yards in 2018. The Tigers lose Thomas Bentley, but they return Justin McCunn and Carter Maynes. They will also have a new signal-caller, but this is an offense that focused on pounding the rock, so the return of McCunn and Maynes is huge.
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