The first week of high school football season is just 38 days away, which means I think it's an appropriate time to start preparing for the 2019 season.
The success of many teams can often be attributed to how much production they return from the prior year or how much they graduated. It's not alway's a guarantee for a more successful season, but it is a strong indicator. For example, last year I pointed out that Treynor returned every single rushing yard from the 2017 season. The Cardinals went on to an 8-2 record in 2018 and claimed the district championship. Red Oak also returned every single rushing yard from their 2017 season and saw a three-win improvement last season.
I attempted to quantify the offensive production that each team in area districts return. Area Districts include Districts 1, 6, 7 and 8 in 8-Man, Districts 2, 8, 9 and 10 in Class A, Districts 8 and 9 in Class 1A, District 9 in Class 2A, Districts 1 and 9 in Class 3A and District 7 in Class 4A. I've already looked at Class 8-Man, now it's time to focus on Class A.
For this project, I calculated the percentage of passing touchdowns, passing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and points that were accumulated by non-seniors. I then averaged the percentages of those eight categories to get an "average" percentage of production that each team returns. It's not a perfect system, but it's the best I could think of.
Now, onto the numbers and the districts. Teams' 2018 record is posted in parentheses. The percentage listed is the number of returning production calculated through the average of the eight categories.
DISCLAIMER: I went solely off QuikStats. This project does not calculate for incoming freshman or production last year that came from underclassmen who may not be playing this year. I have no way of knowing about these situations and cannot factor them into these numbers.
Class A District 2: 1. Alta-Aurelia (7-3) 69%, 2. St. Edmond (3-6) 52%, 3. IKM-Manning (5-4), 44%, 4. Ridge View (3-6) 30%, 5. Manson-Northwest Webster (0-9) 29%, 6. Sioux Central (7-2) 3%
Alta-Aurelia was a missed field goal away from defeating state runner-up AHSTW last year and advancing to a state quarterfinal. Good news for the Warriors is they return a lot of production from last season including quarterback Logan McCoy and leading rusher Anthony Krier. St. Edmond's run-heavy offense returns most of it's passing production but will have to replace over half of its' rushing productivity. IKM-Manning returns signal-caller Kyler Rasmussen, but loses leading rushers Keaton Grimm and Keaton Allmon.
Ridge View returns just 5 percent of it's passing and only 8 percent of their rushing production, but returns nearly two-thirds of it's receiving. The Raptors will also be forced to make a big replacement on the front-line after losing current Iowa Hawkeye Ezra Miller. Sioux Central posted a 7-2 record last season, but missed the playoffs because of a Week 9 loss to Alta-Aurelia. The Rebels lose all their passing and receiving production from 2018 and return just 8 percent of their rushing, but lost their top three rushers. The numbers suggest this district runs through Alta-Aurelia this season, how the rest of the district shakes out is a major question mark.
Class A District 8: 1. North Mahaska (1-8) 79%, 2. Martensdale-St. Mary's (0-9) 69%. 3. Wayne (5-4) 59%, 4. Central Decatur (4-5) 55%, 5. Lynnville-Sully (5-4) 34%, 6. Grandview Christian (3-6) 13%.
North Mahaska and Martensdale-St. Mary's were both young last year and took their share of bumps. Now both teams return a lot of production and will look to make a leap. North Mahaska returns their starting quarterback and nearly 75 percent of their rushing yards from last season while Martensdale-St. Mary's returns two of the three quarterbacks that saw significant playing time, 41 percent of their rushing production and 86 percent of their receiving production. Wayne returns Chase Keifer, who posted a state-best 2,191 rushing yards. The Falcons also return signal-caller Brett Whitehall, but he will need to find some new weapons because all but 3 percent of his receiving production from last year graduated.
Central Decatur started 0-4 before finishing the season 4-1. The Cardinals return future Iowa State linebacker Cole Pedersen, but Pedersen is good on offense, too. Pedersen threw for over 1,000 last year and ran for 925 and 12 scores. CD returns Pedersen's favorite target, Haden Leymaster (27 receptions, 393 yards and 4 touchdowns). District champion Lynnville Sully returns just 25 percent of it's passing, 36 percent of rushing and 34 percent of receiving production. Grandview Christian will be forced to replace all of it's passing and rushing production, but does return 30 percent of it's receiving production for whoever the new QB is for the Thunder. This district is really intriguing. The champ has a lot of production to replace, the bottom two teams from last year return the most and the two most productive players return. This district will be fun to watch.
Class A District 9: 1. St. Albert (5-4) 100%, 2. Nodaway Valley (0-9) 90%, 3. Earlham (4-5) 75%, 4. Southwest Valley (5-4) 28%, 5. Riverside (4-5) 20%, 6. AHSTW (12-1) 4%
Last year AHSTW rode a senior-heavy lineup all the way to a state championship game, where they fell to Hudson. This year they have to replace the likes of Drake Partridge, Brayton Tuma, Gabe Pauley, Korbin Martin and their coach Davis Pattee. I'm sure AHSTW has some dudes that are ready to step up and make an instant impact, but we just don't know about them yet. Many people might have considered last year a "down" year for St. Albert, but the Falcons were extremely young and replacing a legendary senior class. St. Albert is slated to return basically all of their offensive production from 2018 and appears poised to return back to its customary spot atop the district, but Earlham might have something to say about it. The Cardinals return workhorse rusher Caleb Swalla (1669 yards, 14 touchdowns) and signal-caller Alex Caskey.
Nodaway Valley is one of the more intriguing teams to me entering 2019. The Wolverines return nearly all of their offensive production and will come into the opening night on an 11-game losing skid. The Wolverines will also have a new coach in 2019, Flynn Heald and it sounds like he's going to try to utilize the athleticism the Wolverines return by installing a new offense. Southwest Valley started 2018 4-0 but fell victim to multiple injuries. The good news for the Timberwolves is that it forced them to play many younger players and prepare them for 2019. They will have to replace signal-caller Dustin Lund, but Anthony Donahoo's philosophy focuses on smashmouth running and stellar defense. The T-Wolves will most likely provide an increased workload for sophomore Brendan Knapp and junior Blaine Venteicher.
Year one of the Darrell Frain era saw a two-win improvement for Riverside, but Frain will have to replace the entertaining Valentin Andrusyshyn, leading rusher Hunter Hodges and leading receiver AJ Dillon. Coach Frain will have his work cut out for him, but I'm not doubting him. This district appears to run through St. Albert, but I don't know what to expect after that.
Class A District 10: 1. Lawton-Bronson (4-5) 76%, 2. Woodbury Central (6-3) 69%, 3. West Monona (4-5) 66%, 4. Tri-Center (6-3) 62%, 5. Westwood (8-2) 56%, 6. Logan-Magnolia (1-8) 45%
I believe this is the district that returns the most from top-to-bottom. Lawton-Bronson returns its signal-caller Connor Smith, 71 percent of their rushing and 66 percent of it's receiving production. Woodbury Central returns a nice amount of production but will be forced to replace quarterback Garrett Arment. West Monona returns their starting quarterback and 68 percent of their rushing touchdowns from their run game. The Spartans also return 50 percent of their receiving production from 2018.
Tri-Center's passing game was the most prolific in the district last year and they very well could be the most prolific this year thanks to the return of quarterback Bryson Freeberg. but Freeberg will have to find new targets because top receivers, Wyatt Andersen, Bryant Barrier, Kyle Siebels and Trevor Nelson graduate. The Trojans also return 91 percent of their rushing from their 2018 attack that was paced by Freeberg and Trevor Carlson. District champion Westwood loses quarterback and 1,000-yard rusher Sean Westergaard, but they do return leading rusher, Braulio Munoz. The cupboard won't be bare for whoever replaces Westergaard because the Rebels return almost all their receiving production. Last year was an unusually tough year for Logan-Magnolia. The Panthers lost six in a row to finish the season 1-8. This year the Panthers return their signal-caller Gabe Walski but return just 28 percent of their rushing and 29 percent of their receiving production. I have a feeling that Matt Straight has some dudes that are going to step up and make some plays.
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