The success of many teams can often be attributed to how much production they return from the prior year or how much they graduated. It's not alway's a guarantee for a more successful season, but it is a strong indicator. For example, last year I pointed out that Treynor returned every single rushing yard from the 2017 season. The Cardinals went on to an 8-2 record in 2018 and claimed the district championship. Red Oak also returned every single rushing yard from their 2017 season and saw a three-win improvement last season.
As you may have read, I attempted to quantify the offensive production that each team in area districts return. Area Districts are defined as Districts 1, 6, 7 and 8 in 8-Man, Districts 2, 8, 9 and 10 in Class A, Districts 8 and 9 in Class 1A, District 9 in Class 2A, Districts 1 and 9 in Class 3A and District 7 in Class 4A. I've already gone through the area districts in Class 8-Man, A, 1A and 2A, so now it's time to finish it off with Class 3A and 4A.
You can view the previous breakdowns by clicking on the links below.
CLASS 8-MAN
CLASS A
CLASS 1A & 2A
For this project, I calculated the percentage of passing touchdowns, passing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and points that were accumulated by non-seniors. I then averaged the percentages of those eight categories to get an "average" percentage of production that each team returns. It's not a perfect system, but it's the best I could think of.
Now, onto the numbers and the districts. Teams' 2018 record is posted in parentheses. The percentage listed is the number of returning production calculated through the average of the eight categories.
DISCLAIMER: I went solely off QuikStats. This project does not calculate for incoming freshman or production last year that came from underclassmen who may not be playing this year. I have no way of knowing about these situations and cannot factor them into this.
CLASS 3A District 1: 1. Denison-Schleswig (5-4) 90%, 2. Spencer (8-3) 68%, 3. Storm Lake (4-5) 61%, 5. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (10-2) 48%, 6. Bishop Heelan (7-3) 34%
This is one of three Class 3A districts in which every team won at least three games. It's also the only district I've previewed where every team returns their starting quarterback, which makes this district even tougher to gauge. Perennial favorites Sergeant Bluff and Bishop Heelan lost the most production offensively, but Sergeant Bluff returns star quarterback Daniel Wright and Bishop Heelan probably won't have any problem replacing the production they lost from the Sioux City area.
Denison had an impressive 5-4 season and returns nearly everything from that campaign including signal-caller Charlie Wiebers and running back Terrance Weah. Spencer returns it's starting quarterback and all of it's rushing production, but will be forced to replace all but 25 percent of their receiving production. The Tigers' offense will likely circle around Isaiah Spencer, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 20 scores last year.
CLASS 3A District 9: 1. Creston (3-6) 79%, 2. Glenwood (4-5) 72%, 3. ADM (5-4) 69% 4. Harlan (8-3) 36%, 5. Winterset (3-6) 21%, 6. Lewis Central (11-1) 13%
Lewis Central will be forced to replace a legendary senior class that included current TCU quarterback Max Duggan. The Titans also running back Mike Gittins and receiver Josh Simmons, but those losses will most likely mean increased production from Brady Miller and Thomas Fidone. Harlan will be forced to find a new signal-caller this year, but they do return 72 percent of their rushing production that was paced by Alex Schechinger. Whoever the signal-caller is for the Cyclones will have 35 percent of the 2018 receiving production to work with. ADM returns dual-threat quarterback Tate Stine-Smith (2,206 total yards and 8 TD's). ADM also returns half of their rushing production and 64 percent of their receiving but lost leading pass catcher Lucas Heitz.
Creston loses multisport standout Kylan Smallwood but still have the versatile Eli Loudon to fall back on. The Panthers return some really nice pieces outside of Loudon including Rylan Luther and Andy Mills in the run game as well as the receiving duo of Cael Kralik and Luke Latham. In total, the Panthers return 100 percent of their passing, 99 percent of their rushing and 55 percent of their receiving. Glenwood returns 99 percent of it's passing thanks to the return of quarterback Zach Carr but the Rams return just 41 percent of their rushing production and graduated their top two rushers from last season. Winterset will be forced to replace 1,000-yard passer Casey Kleemeier and 1,000-yard rusher Hunter Pashek and will have an entirely new backfield this season.
CLASS 4A District 7: 1. Ames (5-4) 87%, 2. CB, Abraham Lincoln (1-8) 65%, 3. Urbandale (6-4) 63%, 4. Des Moines North (0-9) 55%, 5. WDM Valley (10-1) 43%, 6. CB, Thomas Jefferson (3-6) 20%
Ames' super exciting air-raid attack should be just as fun and exciting as it was last year. The Little Cyclones return virtually all passing and rushing production as well as 86 percent of their receiving and 75 percent of the points they scored in 2018. WDM Valley will once again be forced to replace a lot including quarterback Beau Lombardi and 1,200-yard rusher Tre Fugate, but the Tigers still return 42 percent of their rushing and 68 percent of their receiving production. AL returns most passing and receiving production but will return only 22 percent of rushing production and lost their top three rushers from last season.
TJ's run-heavy offense lost the beasts that were Cameron Baker and Cameron Lukavsky and return just 16 percent of their rushing from last year. The losses of Baker and Lukavsky will likely mean an increased workload for Jermaine Green (640 yards, 3 TD's) and someone else that I don't know about yet. Urbandale returns its' signal-caller Ty Langenberg as well as leading-rushing and Northern Illinois commit Harrison Waylee. The J-Hawks will be forced to replace all but 38 percent of their receiving production from a year ago. Des Moines North returns 98 percent of their passing and 51 percent of their rushing from an 0-9 team, so the pieces are there for the Polar Bears to snap the 25-game losing skid they're currently on but it won't be easy in this district.
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