I have never tried to hide that I am a
nerd. It's way too obvious for me to even attempt to hide, so I don't.. At a
young age, I was spewing out numbers and stats while my brothers were begging
to watch SpongeBob.
I love the NFL Draft. I has always been one of my favorite
things in sports. Since 2005, I have only missed watching two NFL Drafts (2009
and 2013), interestingly enough those have probably been the two worst ones. I
like to think those two draft classes sucked because I did not watch.
Some people don't like Mock Drafts, and I can see why, but I am
not one of those people. Actually, I am. I don't like Mock Drafts.
I love them
I love them so much that I've been doing my own since 2010,
however, mine has a twist.
The picks are completely random.
Why? How? You might ask.
First off, I didn't have many friends as a kid, so it was a
fun little game that I could play to keep me out of my
grandmother's hair so she could read, sew or do other grandmotherly
things.
Second off, I have opinions on certain players that may or may not
be biased. For example-as a Chiefs fan, I may not mock somebody that I really
like to the Raiders or Broncos If it is completely random, my opinions don't
matter.
Also, mock drafts are tough to predict and they are usually
completely wrong anyway. It's impossible to predict what an NFL GM is going to
do. Especially when you are just a 13-year old kid, thus I created a
"random' mock draft.
Now to the how.
This might sound lame, but when I was little, I used to just write
names on an index card and assign them a number and roll a dye until there was
only one number remaining. The player attached to that number was the
"pick".
However, around 2014 or 2015, I found a website called Random.org.
I began using that, and it is fantastic.
You simply just type in a number range and hit the generate
button. So now, what I do is create a word document, list a number of players
and hit the good ol' generate button until all but one number remains.
Now while this Mock Draft is random, it is still logical. Every
player or scenario is given the same amount of odds and each player or scenario
makes sense. For example, the Cardinals are not drafting Easton Stick with the
first pick so that is not an option for them.
This method is by no means perfect, for example, it projected
Ndamukong Suh to be taken #1 in 2010 (he went #2) and Jimmy Clausen to be taken
by Seattle in the first round (he went in Round Two to Carolina) In 2013, the
randomness selected Mike Glennon to be taken in the Top 10 (he fell into the
third round), In 2015, the randomness felt that The Bucs should select Marcus
Mariota number one and that Randy Gregory was a top ten pick.
It's not a perfect system, but it's unique.
It's also worth noting, that trades are a possible scenario,
however, the trade scenario has a specific team, and most the time that team
has a specific player. Also, what a team gives up in the trade scenario is
decided by me based on what I think would be a fair trade according to the NFL
Draft Trade Value Chart, a chart which NFL GM's use religiously when making
draft day trades. You can click here to
view the value chart.
You are probably tired of me going full geek mode, so let's get to
the completely random 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft.
Pick #1 Arizona Cardinals
Options: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray, Trade
with Raiders, Ohio State DE Nick Bosa
What the Computer Chose: Murray
The computer went with the most likely
scenario here. I don't agree with the idea of the Cardinals drafting Murray,
but I think it's going to happen. The Cardinals spent a top 10 pick on Josh
Rosen last year and no team has taken quarterbacks in the first round in
back-to-back years since the Colts took Art Schlichter and John Elway in 1982
and 1983. However, new regimes new quarterbacks. Kliff Kingsbury did not draft
Josh Rosen so he is not a Kingsbury guy while Kingsbury has openly stated his
liking of Murray. I think this is pretty much a done deal.
Pick #2 San Francisco 49ers
Options: Ohio State DE Nick Bosa, Alabama
DT Quinnen Williams,
What the Computer Chose: Williams
I think Bosa and Williams are the two best
prospects in this class. The 49ers front seven is solid, but not great, however
that could change if the recently acquired Dee Ford does what he did in Kansas
City last year. I could also see the 49ers trading down, but the 49ers
reportedly are in love with Williams. Those reports could be false, but
Williams could have an immediate impact for the 49ers and would create quite
the duo if he's paired up with DeForest Buckner.
Pick #3 New York Jets
Options: Florida OT Jawaan Taylor, Ohio
State DE Nick Bosa, Kentucky DE Josh Allen
What the Computer Chose: Allen
I personally think the Jets should draft
Taylor to protect Sam Darnold and that Bosa is a better choice than Allen is,
but the computer disagrees. Allen might not be Bosa, but he is still a really
good prospect with an incredibly high upside. The one advantage Allen does have
over Bosa is that he's much more reliable at both defensive end and linebacker.
The Jets signed CJ Mosley this season, but they could use another front-seven
presence and Allen would give them just that, plus Leonard Williams is in a contract
year and this allows them to find his replacement.
Pick #4 Oakland Raiders
Options: Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins,
Ohio State DE Nick Bosa, Michigan DE Rashan Gary
What the Computer Chose: Gary
Nick Bosa's slide continues according to
the computer. Rashan Gary is a big dude with the frame to get bigger and he was
pretty darn good at Michigan, particularly in 2017 when he recorded 6 sacks and
12 tackles for loss. He missed a handful of games with a shoulder injury last
year but he still recorded 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss in nine games.
The Raiders have a need at pretty much every position and drafting Gary could
give them the front seven presence they had until they traded Khalil Mack to
Chicago.
Pick #5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Options: Ohio State DE Nick Bosa,
Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat, Houston DT Ed Oliver, Florida OT Jawaan
Taylor
What the Computer Chose: Taylor
This would be the point in the draft where
the networks pan to a nervous Nick Bosa as he continues to slide. Bosa would
undoubtedly fulfill a need for the Bucs, but I think offensive line is an even
bigger need. Jameis Winston has regressed the past two seasons and part of that
could be due to the fact that he's been sacked 60 times over the course of the
past two seasons. Protecting Winston may or may not shake him of his recent
woes, but you have to protect your quarterback and Taylor would allow the Bucs
to do so.
Pick #6 New York Giants
Options: Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins,
Missouri QB Drew Lock, Ohio State DE Nick Bosa, Trade with Bills
What the Computer Chose: Trade with Bills,
Bills Select Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa's slide stops and we have our
first trade of the draft. In this scenario, the Bills give up their first round
pick (9th overall) and their second round pick to move up and draft what could
be the biggest steal of the draft while the Giants stockpile draft picks in the
preparation for life after Eli Manning. Bosa also makes sense for the Bills
because Jerry Hughes just turned 30 and has slightly regressed over the past
few seasons.
Pick #7 Jacksonville Jaguars
Options: Washington State OT Andre
Dillard, Trade with Bengals, Iowa TE TJ Hockenson, Florida State DE Brian
Burns. Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat
What the Computer Chose: Burns
I think the Jaguars would probably take
Jawaan Taylor if he was available because their offensive line has struggled
and they just paid Nick Foles a boatload of money. I could also see the Jags
giving Foles a weapon (Hockenson, D.K. Metcalf, etc...), but in this scenario,
the Jaguars bolster their pass-rush. Brian Burns has quietly risen up draft
charts and has been projected as high as a top ten pick. Burns amassed 23 sacks
in 33 games at Florida State and picked up 10 sacks last year. He has a rather
lean frame, which means he could still possibly fill out. He has the making of
a really good pass-rusher if all goes well.
Pick #8 Detroit Lions
Options: Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson,
Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat, LSU LB Devin White
What the Computer Chose: Hockenson
This seems to be the most popular landing
spot for Hockenson according to many mock drafts. The Lions roster is not good
and Matthew Stafford has virtually no weapons and has not since Calvin Johnson
abruptly retired. Hockenson is one of the most intriguing prospects in this
class to me. The pride of Chariton, Iowa had an amazing 2018 campaign that
concluded with him winning the Mackey Award. Hockenson did all this despite
sharing the receptions with another possible first rounder, Noah Fant.
Hockenson seems like a really good fit for Detroit due to his size, blocking
abilities and sneaky athleticism.
Pick #9 New York Giants
Options: Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins,
Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat, Missouri QB Drew Lock, LSU LB Devin White,
Washington State OT Andre Dillard
What the Computer Chose: Haskins
There is two sides to the story of this
"pick". First, recent rumors have arose that the Giants might not be
as high on Dwayne Haskins as we think and that they will not select him, but
there are tons of rumors that swirl this time of year, so it's tough to gauge
which ones to believe. Secondly, if they do actually like Haskins and this
scenario happens (doubt it), then the Giants will look really smart. Anytime
you can pick up a player you really wanted while also gaining a pick is a good
move. I'm not completely sold on Haskins because he only played 14 games at a
school that does not typically produce NFL quarterbacks, but it's hard to
overlook his arm-strength and all of the other tools he has.
Pick #10 Denver Broncos
Options: Missouri QB Drew Lock, Trade with
Panthers, LSU LB Devin White
What the Computer Chose: White
John Elway is apparently in love with Drew
Lock, but I don't buy that for some reason and I think the Elway is an
incompetent enough GM that he has faith in Joe Flacco. The Broncos aren't in
dire need of a Linebacker because they have the solid quartet of Bradley Chubb,
Josey Jewell, Von Miller and Todd Davis. But they also did not need and Chubb
last year and drafted him because he was the best player available. White
sliding to Denver would be a nice deal for them and I think they would at least
consider it, and in this scenario they pounce.
Pick #11 Cincinnati Bengals
Options: Missouri QB Drew Lock, Michigan
LB Devin Bush, Duke QB Daniel Jones, Trade with Redskins, Washington State OT
Andre Dillard
What the Computer Chose: Trade with
Redskins, Redskins Select Daniel Jones
In this scenario, the Redskins get the
11th pick while the Bengals get the 15th and 96th picks. This trade also means
that Josh Rosen gets traded to somewhere other than Washington. (New England,
maybe?). I don't know that Alex Smith will ever play again and last year was an
indication that Case Keenum's 2017 success was a one-hit wonder. Keenum's
signing also does not mean they won't draft a QB because we've seen teams sign
a veteran QB and then draft one early. I think Jones might be the best QB in
this class, he has the build of a Ben Roethlisberger/Joe Flacco and has
NFL-caliber arm strength.
Pick #12 Green Bay Packers
Options: Washington State OT Andre
Dillard, Oklahoma OT Cody Ford, Alabama OT Jonah Williams, Mississippi State DE
Montez Sweat, Iowa TE Noah Fant
What the Computer Chose: Fant
I think the Packers would prefer the other
Iowa tight end, but Fant is a good consolation. The Packers have ignored giving
Aaron Rodgers the weapons he asked for and that could be part of the reason
behind the rift that was created between him and Mike McCarthy. I see Fant as a
tight end who could be a vertical threat in the same way that Travis Kelce or
Rob Gronkowski has been. He's not the greatest blocker in the world, but I'm
sure the Packers will overlook that if he's hauling in passes. Plus drafting
Fant would give the Packers a reason to part ways with declining Jimmy
Graham.
Pick #13 Miami Dolphins
Options: Missouri QB Drew Lock, Washington
State OT Andre Dillard, Alabama OT Jonah Williams, Mississippi State DE Montez
Sweat, Oklahoma OT Cody Ford
What the Computer Chose: Williams
The Dolphins need a quarterback. If the
season started today, Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the signal-caller for the
'Fins. I would take a QB here if I was their GM, but I've also heard that they
are tanking for Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert, so drafting an offensive
lineman here would protect their stopgap QB this year and whatever QB they
decide to draft next year. It's tough for me to say whether I think Williams,
Ford or Dillard is better, but the computer felt it was Williams.
Pick #14 Atlanta Falcons
Options: Houston DT Ed Oliver, Oklahoma OT
Cody Ford, Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat
What the Computer Chose: Oliver
The Falcons defense was not good last
year, if it was, they might have been a playoff team. Ed Oliver came into
last season as a Heisman trophy candidate, but he battled injuries all season
and was ridiculed for an altercation with his head coach. He has boom-or-bust
written all over him, but it's hard to overlook his upside. He could be the
next Aaron Donald or the next Tyson Jackson and neither would surprise me. The
Falcons should take a chance on him if he falls to them and the computer
agrees.
Pick #15 Cincinnati Bengals
Options: Missouri QB Drew Lock, Oklahoma
OT Cody Ford, Washington State OT Andre Dillard, Michigan LB Devin Bush
What the Computer Chose: Dillard
I could see the Bengals drafting a
quarterback, but I could see them taking the same approach as the Dolphins.
Tank, protect your QB of the future and then draft that QB next year. Andy
Dalton is mediocre and there's no sign that he will be anything other than
that, but the Bengals still have to protect him or whoever else lines up under center
for them. Trading down and then drafting Dillard when they could have drafted a
QB like Drew Lock might not be the sexiest pick, but it's a smart football move
because they could have had Dillard with the 11th pick, gained a pick and got
their guy anyway.
Pick #16 Carolina Panthers
Options: Mississippi State DE Montez
Sweat, Oklahoma OT Cody Ford,
What the Computer Chose: Ford
The computer does not care about Montez
Sweat's impressive combine and the Panthers get a versatile offensive lineman
with the hopes that he will be able to keep Cam Newton healthy. Cody Ford can
play either guard or tackle, which is good for the Panthers because their
offensive line has been less than superb for the last five years. Ford also has
a large frame at 6-4, 335 pounds. He also has a lengthy frame that could be
used just about anywhere on the line. This is not a sexy pick, but it's a smart
pick.
Pick #17 New York Giants
Options: Mississippi State DE Montez
Sweat, Michigan LB Devin Bush, LSU CB Greedy Williams, Washington CB Byron
Murphy, Clemson DT Christian Wilkins
What the Computer Chose: Williams
The Giants use their pick from the Odell
Beckham. Jr. trade to draft another LSU standout, but this one is on the
defensive side. San Beal and Janoris Jenkins would be the Giants' starters if
the season began today. Williams has a tall, lanky frame for a corner (just
over 6-2) and is coming off a stellar 2018 season in which he had 61 tackles,
four interceptions and 18 passes broken up. This is a smart football pick for the
Giants even if Montez Sweat is still on the board.
Pick #18 Minnesota Vikings
Options: North Carolina State OG Garrett
Bradbury, Clemson DT Christian Wilkins, Trade with Chiefs, Boston College G
Chris Lindstrom, Washington OT Kaleb McGary
What the Computer Chose: Bradbury
As you can see, the offensive line is the
biggest need for the Vikings (right, Luke Peterson?). Kirk Cousins was the 10th
most sacked QB last year and the o-line has struggled to stay healthy and
consistent. Bradbury can plug-and-play at either center or guard. I would guess
that he would play guard if drafted by the Vikings.
Pick #19 Tennessee Titans
Options: Mississippi State DE Montez
Sweat, Washington CB Byron Murphy, Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf, Clemson DT
Christian Wilkins
What the Computer Chose: Metcalf
Corey Davis had a breakthrough season last
year, but he's their only threat at wideout. Metcalf turned a lot of heads at
the combine with his physique and crazy fast 40-yard dash time. With that being
said, I am not sold on Metcalf because: 1) He struggled in the drills that
required him to change direction and that's more important for a receiver than
his 40-time. 2) He is coming off a very serious neck injury. It's not a pick
that I would make if I was Titans GM Jon Robinson, but the Titans need a
wideout and he's the best available.
Pick #20 Pittsburgh Steelers
Options: Washington CB Byron Murphy,
Georgia CB DeAndre Baker, Michigan LB Devin Bush
What the Computer Chose: Murphy
This makes sense if for no other reason
than the Steelers always select players that I want the Chiefs to grab. The
Steelers defense is not bad, but it's also not great either. The Steelers
signed Steven Nelson this offseason, but that should not prevent them from
drafting another defensive back because Nelson is mediocre. I really like Byron
Murphy and I think he has the potential to be a Marcus Peters' type steal.
Minus the off-the-field headaches that Peters caused.
Pick #21 Seattle Seahawks
Options: Mississippi State DE Montez
Sweat, Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson DT Christian Wilkins
What the Computer Chose: Sweat
Montez Sweat's slide comes to a close and
he lands on a playoff caliber team that could use his instant impact. Sweat is
one of my favorite prospects in this draft and he was before he tore things up
at the combine. Sweat amassed 22 sacks in 26 games in the SEC playing against
NFL-caliber offensive lineman. He has a Von Miller-type frame and as his
40-time indicated, he is fast. I think he has the potential to be a Von
Miller/Justin Houston type player.
Pick #22 Baltimore Ravens
Options: Ole Miss WR AJ Brown, Oklahoma WR
Marquise Brown, Iowa State WR Hakeem Butler, Michigan LB Devin Bush, Clemson
Clelin Ferrell
What the Computer Chose: Ferrell
Wide Receiver is the Ravens' biggest need,
but it has yet to be determined if Lamar Jackson is even capable of being the
passer that would justify drafting a wideout with their top pick. The Ravens
had the best defense in the league last year, but they took a blow this
offseason with the losses of Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley. Ferrell was a key
piece on Clemson's monster defense and he was slated as high as a top-five pick
earlier this season so this could be a steal for the Ravens.
Pick #23 Houston Texans
Options: Temple CB Rock Ya-Sin, Georgia CB
DeAndre Baker, Kansas State OT Dalton Risner
What the Computer Chose: Risner
Deshaun Watson was sacked an NFL-high 65
times last season. Watson creates some of his sacks due to his scrambling style,
but the Texans offensive line is not good. The current starting tackles for the
Texans would be Julie'n Davenport and Seantrel Henderson. That's average at
best. Risner's ability won't blow you away, but he's reliable having started 51
games at Kansas State. He can also slide in at center if needed. He could be a
sneaky good pick.
Pick #24 Oakland Raiders
Options: Missouri QB Drew Lock, Georgia CB
DeAndre Baker, Alabama RB Josh Jacobs, Michigan LB Devin Bush
What the Computer Chose: Lock
Hear me out on this one. Derek Carr has
not been the same player he was in 2016 and there's nothing that indicates that
he's going to return there. The Raiders also have three first-round picks this
year so they can afford to take a flyer on Lock if they like him and he falls
to them. Also, drafting a signal-caller this year would allow them a year for
the QB to learn while also evaluating Carr's potential trade value. The Raiders
have seen the success the Chiefs had and the formula they used to implement.
However, Drew Lock is not Patrick Mahomes.
Pick #25 Philadelphia Eagles
Options: Clemson DT Christian Wilkins,
Alabama RB Josh Jacobs, Mississippi State DT Jeffrey Simmons, Virginia S Juan
Thornhill
What the Computer Chose: Thornhill
The Eagles passing defense is solid, but
Malcom Jenkins is getting up there in age and Rodney McLeod is average. I think
the Eagles draft a safety whether it to be Thornhill, Taylor Rapp or Nasir
Adderley. The computer likes Thornhill in this scenario. The former Cavalier
got better each year, amassing 13 interceptions including six interceptions
last season while also recording 98 tackles.
Pick #26 Indianapolis Colts
Options: Ole Miss WR AJ Brown, Clemson DT
Christian Wilkins, Georgia CB DeAndre Baker, Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown,
Mississippi State DT Jeffrey Simmons
What the Computer Chose: AJ Brown
The Colts might be one offensive weapon
away from being the favorite to win the AFC. TY Hilton is still really
productive, but adding another wideout would balance the offense and take some
of the looks away from Hilton. I'm not super high on Brown, but I do think he
will have a better career than his teammate, D.K. Metcalf.
Pick #27 Oakland Raiders
Options: Alabama RB Josh Jacobs, Michigan
LB Devin Bush, Georgia CB DeAndre Baker
What the Computer Chose: Bush
Two stud Michigan defenders and the
potential quarterback of their future is a dream scenario for the Raiders.
Devin Bush is not a sexy pick, but the Raiders defense is not good and could be
upgraded at virtually any position. Bush is not the same type of player as
Khalil Mack, but it would fill the void that the Raiders left when they dealt
him to Chicago.
Pick #28 Los Angeles Chargers
Options: Clemson DT Christian Wilkins,
Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence, Oklahoma WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown,
Mississippi State DT Jeffrey Simmons
What the Computer Chose: Brown
The Chargers have Keenan Allen and Travis
Benjamin, so they are not in dire need of a wideout, but I think Hollywood
Brown could be too tempting for the Chargers to pass up. Brown is small (5-9),
but he has the deep threat ability of a playmaker like Tyreek Hill--a player
that the Chargers are all too familiar with. Drafting Brown would give Rivers a
home-run playmaker.
Pick #29 Kansas City Chiefs
Options: Delaware S Nasir Adderley, Boston
College G Chris Lindstrom, Temple CB Rock Ya-Sin, Georgia CB DeAndre Baker,
Clemson DT Christian Wilkins, Florida S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
What the Computer Chose: Adderley
Anything the Chiefs do in this draft on
the defensive side will be a positive because their defense was so bad last
year and the secondary was particularly atrocious. The Chiefs did the right
thing this offseason by cutting Eric Berry and signing Tyrann Mathieu, but the
other starting spot at safety is still a question mark. I really like Nasir
Adderley. He's a physical corner who has the potential to be something really
special. I have yet to read one negative thing about him. I really hope this
happens.
Pick #30 Green Bay Packers
Options: Florida S Chauncey
Gardner-Johnson, Mississippi State S Jonathan Abram, Boston College G Chris
Lindstrom, Washington S Taylor Rapp, Trade with 49ers, Trade with
Cardinals
What the Computer Chose: Abram
I have a feeling that the Packers could
trade back with this pick. Especially if they miss out on Nasir Adderley. The
Packers drafted Jaire Alexander in the first round last year and it looks like
a pretty smart pick after one season. Safety might not be a dire need for the
Packers this year because they signed Adrian Amos away from the Bears this
offseason, but Abram would almost certainly give them an upgrade over Josh
Jones and would bolster their secondary.
Pick #31 Los Angeles Rams
Options: Georgia CB DeAndre Baker, Clemson
DT Christian Wilkins, Boston College G Chris Lindstrom, Mississippi State DT
Jeffrey Simmons, Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence, Temple CB Rock-Ya Sin
What the Computer Chose: Simmons
The Rams drafting a defensive lineman is
totally contingent on whether or not they resign Ndamukong Suh. Suh is coming
off a phenomenal 2018 season, but it sounds like his asking price might be too
high for the Rams. Simmons would probably be a top 10-15 pick if not for a
recent ACL injury and an incident in 2016 where he was videotaped hitting a
woman. Many teams will take Simmons off their draft board, but the Rams have
had no problem with guys that don't have the cleanest background (Aqib Talib,
Marcus Peters).
Pick #32 New England Patriots
Options: Clemson DT Christian Wilkins,
Iowa State WR Hakeem Butler, Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence, Trade with San
Francisco, Arizona State N'Keal Harry
What the Computer Chose: Lawrence
This pick is so Patriots that it hurts.
Dexter Lawrence could have been a top 15 pick if not for a failed drug test
that kept him out of the College Football Playoff. This would mark the seventh
time under Bill Belichick that the Patriots draft a defensive lineman, but
their current opening day starters would be Mike Pennel and Lawrence Guy, so I
think it will be really hard for the Patriots to pass up either Lawrence or his
teammate Wilkins if they slip to 32.
