Seven Teams Most Likely To Pull of an Upset

The best part of March is the madness. The last second game winners. Upsets that completely shred a bracket. The question is never whether or not their will be an upset, but who will do it? and who will they do it to? Since 2012, a team seeded 11th or lower has won 32 of 120 possible matchups. 

                                                                11 over 6

2012	Colorado over UNLV
2012	North Carolina State over San Diego State
2013	Minnesota over UCLA
2014	Dayton over Ohio State
2014	Tennessee over UMass
2015	UCLA over SMU
2015	Dayton over Providence
2016	Northern Iowa over Texas
2016	Gonzaga over Seton Hall
2016	Wichita State over Arizona

                                                                         12 over 5

2012	VCU over Wichita State
2012	South Florida over Temple
2013	Oregon over Oklahoma State
2013	California over UNLV
2013	Ole Miss over Wisconsin
2014	Harvard over Cincinnati
2014	North Dakota State over Oklahoma
2014	Stephen F. Austin over VCU
2016	Yale over Baylor
2016	Arkansas-Little Rock over Purdue

                                                                  13 over 4

2012	Ohio over Michigan
2013	LaSalle over Kansas State
2016	Hawaii over California

                                                                 14 over 3

2013	Harvard over New Mexico
2014	Mercer over Duke
2015	UAB over Iowa State
2015	Georgia State over Baylor
2016	Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia

                                                                  15 over 2

2012	Lehigh over Duke
2012	Norfolk State over Missouri
2013	Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown
2016	Middle Tennessee over Michigan State.

History shows that there is obviously going to be an upset or two in March, so here are seven teams that I think have a really good chance of playing Cinderella next week. All match-ups come from ESPN's Bracketology by Joe Lunardi.

                                                            

                                                           PRINCETON (IVY League)

                                               Projected Bracketology Seed: 13

                                                            Projected 1st Round Match-up: Butler

Due to the Ivy League's four team tournament, The Tigers have yet to clinch a tournament bid, but they should be the favorite to get league's automatic bid. Princeton has an RPI of 51, which is higher than some major conference teams in the field such as Kansas State and Marquette. The Tigers played a solid non-conference schedule (VCU, Cal, BYU), but did not win any of them. They did however run the table in their conference going 14-0. The Ivy League has played really well in the tournament advancing to the second round three times since 2012. Even Princeton has a solid tournament history. They upset 3 seed and defending national champion UCLA in 1996. The Tigers were also just one point away from being the first 16 seed to knock off a top seed, losing by one point to Georgetown in 1989. The Tigers are led by forward Steven Cook and have four players averaging double digits. They are projected to get Butler in the first round, which is a difficult match-up for the Tigers and why I didn't have them higher.

                                                  TEXAS-ARLINGTON (Sun Belt)

                                    Projected Bracketology Seed: 12

                                                      Projected First Round Match-up: Virginia

They still have to win their conference semi-final and championship games, but the Mavericks are a team that I really like. They are 37th in RPI. Have wins over Texas (I know they're garbage, but they play in the Big 12) and St. Mary's, a four point road loss to Arkansas and a loss to Minnesota. The Mavericks are led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Kevin Hervey who averages over 17 points and 8 rebounds a game. They average just under 78 points a game and are projected to get a defense-oriented Virginia squad in the first round. The Cavaliers offensive deficiencies could put them in a vulnerable position and allow UT-Arlington to take advantage.

                                                         

                                                  MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. (C-USA)

                                    Projected Bracketology Seed: 11

                                                      Projected First Round Match-up: Iowa State

I bet Michigan State fans remember the Blue Raiders. Last year coach Kermit Davis' squad used a 58% three point shooting effort to knock off 2 seed Michigan State. The top two scorers from that game (Reggie Upshaw and Giddy Potts) are on the roster this year. They have wins over two tournament teams (Vanderbilt and UNC-Wilmington) and a three point loss to VCU. They are led in scoring by 6'8 forward Ja'Corey Williams and while they shoot 37% from beyond the arc. They have three guys who shot around 40%, including a young man named Xavier Habersham who only averages just over 5 PPG, but shoots 46% from three point land in 85 attempts. They are predicted to get Iowa State in the first round, who has a history of struggling with teams that can shoot as good as they do. If Middle Tennessee can hit the stride it did last year. The Cyclones (or whoever they face) could be in trouble.

                                                          

                                                      WINTHROP (Big South)

                                     Projected Bracketology Seed: 14

                                                       Projected First Round Match-up: Florida State

The Eagles would certainly be a Cinderella, but there's just something I really like about them. Not sure what it is. They are led by the guard duo of Keon Johnson and Xavier Cooks who combine to average just under 39 points per game. The key for them is getting their forwards involved like the 6"5' Roderick Perkins. This team kind of reminds me of Middle Tennessee, the 5'7  Keon Johnson scores just under 23 a game and shoots 40% from three. If he is on, it could create a mismatch for their opponent. Their match-up could also benefit them if they get Florida State. It would be the second time the teams played this year with the Seminoles winning the first 100-86, but the Eagles played that game without Johnson.

                                                     EAST TENNESSEE ST. (SoCon)

                                      Projected Bracketology Seed: 13

                                                       Projected First Round Match-up: Purdue

Fun fact, The Bucs are the only 16 seed to ever take a top seed to overtime. Dropping a four point decision to Michigan State in 1990. This years' squad has an RPI of 56 and are led by former SWCC head coach Steve Forbes. The Bucs are led in scoring by senior guard T.J Cromer who averages 19.1 PPG and shoots 40% from three. He went off for 41 in their conference semifinal and has the ability to turn it on any given night.The duo of him and fellow guard Desonta Bradford is a solid combination. They need to solid production from 6'8" forward Tevin Glass (Wichita State transfer). The Bucs are currently projected to match-up against Purdue in the first round who was bounced last year by Arkansas-Little Rock in the first round. Glass will have to contain Purdue star Caleb Swanigan if that match-up happens.

                                                              

                                                            FLORIDA GULF COAST (A-Sun)

                                        Projected Bracketology Seed: 14

                                                            Projected First Round Match-up: Baylor

This isn't quite Dunk City, but it's still pretty darn good. Most of us remember that FGCU team from 2013 that made the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed and earned their coach, Andy Enfield the head job at USC. This is a very scary 14 seed. They have the size and athleticism to spread the floor. They had non-conference losses to Florida, Baylor and Michigan State. Losing to the Bears by 9 and Sparty by just 1. The Eagles are led by the guard play of Brandon Goodwin and Zach Johnson, combining for 30 PPG. They also receive solid production from the six foot-nine inch Demetris Morant who averages 11 PPG and 8 RPG. Matching up with Baylor could be the best thing for the Eagles because the Bears have a history of laying an egg in the tournament. This team has the potential to do exactly what they did four years ago. Bust some brackets.

                                                               

                                                                 UNC-WILMINGTON (CAA)

                                            Projected Bracketology Seed: 12

                                                                  Projected First Round Match-up: Florida

Former Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts has turned things around at UNCW and should be on the wishlist of many major programs. The Seahawks have an RPI of 27, which is higher than Wichita State, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State. Their RPI is also just behind Iowa State and Creighton. The Seahawks have three players that score over or around 15 PPG; guards C.J Bryce, Chris Flemmings and Denzel Ingrams. They have also had solid production from forward Devontae Cacok, who averages over 12 PPG. They also two quality three point shooters who come off the bench in Ambrose Mosley and Jaylen Fornes. This is a team that has Cinderella written all over them. They made the big dance last year and took Duke down to the wire before losing 93-85. If they get Florida in the first round like ESPN's Bracketology projects them to, then they are getting a Gator squad who has looked sluggish down the stretch, dropping three games to Vanderbilt this season. Keep an eye on the Seahawks next week.