Thursday, November 8, 2018

Previewing the State Semifinals


331 teams began and now there are only 24. Every team begins their season with the dream of winning a state title but these 24 still have the opportunity to make their dream a reality.


Between Thursday and Saturday, 12 games will take place to determine who will play for a state championship.

Connor Ferguson and I have you covered with everything you need to know about those match-ups.

CLASS 8-MAN
TREVOR: New London (10-1) vs. Fremont-Mills (10-1), Thursday at noon.
BCMoore Projection: Fremont-Mills by 0.15

The 8-Man quarterfinal games were absolutely bananas. Before the playoffs began, I predicted that the dome teams would be Iowa Valley, Don Bosco, Ar-We-Va and Fremont-Mills with Ar-We-Va defeating Don Bosco in the 'ship, as you can see neither one of those two teams made it, but New London and Fremont-Mills did, setting up this coin toss of a matchup. 

New London avenged their lone blemish last week with a 56-20 thrashing of top-ranked Iowa Valley. The Tigers offense has been roaring most the season, scoring 50 points or more in all but two games this season. Their offense has been one of the more balanced in 8-Man. Quarterback Isaac McSorley has thrown for just under 1,200 yards and 20 scores to just six interceptions. The run game has been where the Tigers got to 10-1. They've posted 3,296 rushing yards and 61 touchdowns, those are fifth and third in all of 8-man. McSorley has added 20-touchdowns on the ground to bring his season total to 40. Keontae Luckett has complimented McSorley in the backfield, carrying the rock for 1,335 yards and 22 touchdowns. New London also displayed one of its' best defensive performances of the season last week, holding and Iowa Valley rushing attack that was ranked number one in nearly every statistical category in 8-man to just 150 yards and two scores. That doesn't sound that great, but Iowa Valley was averaging over 350 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground per game. New London has also been greedy on defense, picking off a state high 20 interceptions on the season.

Like New London, Fremont-Mills also gave comeuppance on their lone hiccup last week. The Knights did so with a 61-20 drubbing of Exira-EHK to avenge a week one loss. F-M has been on a mission since week one, winning by an average of 52 points per game. The Knights last five opponents had a combined record of 35-14 and they won those games 62-3, 35-0, 70-18, 61-8 and 61-20. This team has been so darn dominant. Their dominance has been led by the three-headed monster of Mason Vanatta, Seth Malcom and Jaeger Powers. Vanatta, who is also their quarterback, has thrown just under 1000 yards and 13 scores while also rushing for 871 and 22 scores. Seth Malcom has found the end zone 23 times on the ground and has also scored on a fumble recovery and a kick return. The Knights tend to pin their ears back defensively as Coach Jeremy Christensen's team prides themselves on turnovers, forcing 26 turnovers this season.

New London is going to have to use the same formula that they used to beat Iowa Valley. Shut down the run game. However, Fremont-Mills is playing like a team on a mission. If they shut down Vanatta, they have Malcom, if they shut down those two, they still have Powers and I don't think you can shut down all three. I think the Knights are clearly the best team in the state and will flex their muscle while exorcising some demons from years' past.

Prediction: Fremont-Mills 52 New London 22 


CLASS 8-Man
Connor: #10 Rockford (10-1) vs. #6 Southeast Warren, Liberty Center (12-0)
BC Moore Projection: Southeast Warren by 27.13
Date: Thursday November 8 @

Our first matchup of the week features two teams who went on the road last week to win one possession games and earn trips to the UNI-Dome for the semi-finals.

In this matchup, the last remaining undefeated 8-man team in Southeast Warren takes on a Rockford team that is simply on a mission for a state title.

Southeast Warren comes into this one riding the momentum of running back Alex Hommer. In their two playoff wins leading up to this Thursday’s game, Hommer rushed for a combined 235 yards and four touchdowns to help lead his team to victory. That’s not the only weapon they have on the roster either. Quarterback Colby Page has the highest quarterback rating in the state among quarterbacks who have thrown over 150 passes in 2018, according to quikstatsiowa.com. Page also sits at second in the state in passing yards over the course of the season, airing it out for 2,229 yards. Best believe that both of these players will be scampering into the UNI endzones on Thursday.

As for Rockford, they come in as 27.13 underdogs to their undefeated foes, though that isn’t something the Rams should be unfamiliar with. Just a week ago, Rockford would go on the road to face Don Bosco, Gilbertville – a team that beat the Rams in their regular season matchup 80-6. They came out of that game with a lower-scoring, 32-26 win, in large part due to a 211-yard, two-touchdown performance by running back Jacob Staudt. This matchup might not look great for the Rams, but they might just keep on winning. 

Why the heck not?


Prediction: Southeast Warren 40, Rockford 35

CLASS A
TREVOR: West Hancock (9-2) vs. Hudson (11-0), Friday at 10 a.m.
BCMoore Projection: Hudson by 2.43

Both teams comfortably took care of business last weekend. West Hancock downed Akron-Westfield 50-14 while Hudson overcame a slow start to defeat Highland, Riverside 41-14. West Hancock has two blemishes on their resume, one of which was a 7-0 defensive battle with Garner-Hayfield-Ventura, the other was a 28-14 defeat at the hands of Class A quarterfinals Bishop Garrigan. While Hudson, my state title pick at the beginning of the season, went undefeated this season, but that does not mean they weren't tested. They squeaked out two wins by just a single possession. 

West Hancock makes no secret about what they want to do. This is an offense that threw the ball for just 255 yards all year, so I think it's safe to say they are going to run, run, run some more and then probably run again. Their offense has revolved around Tate Hagen, who has 265 totes for 1734 yards and 24 touchdowns. Josef Smith has complimented Hagen in the backfield, rambling for 1,064 yards and 11 touchdowns to the tune of just under nine yards per carry. The interesting part about this team is that their quarterback has not been a dominant part of their running game, rushing for just under 200-yards and two scores all season. Typically teams that don't throw the ball rely on their quarterbacks to carry the rock a lot, but not the Eagles.

As for Hudson, they also rely on the run game, but are more apt to chuck it. Quarterback Jacob Murray threw for just under 1,000 yards and 12 scores. However, the focal point of their offense has undoubtedly been senior running back Christian Seres, who amassed 1,791 rushing yards and scored 28 touchdowns. The Pirates also have a junior by the name of Ethan Fulcher they can turn to. Fulcher amassed 601 yards and nine scores while averaging just under 10 yards a tote. On the defensive side, the Hudson defense has been ever so opportunistic picking off a 11 passes and scooping up 18 fumbles.

To be honest when just doing the ignorant action of stat comparing, I'm surprised that BCMoore only projects Hudson as a two point favorite, but this is why you play the game. West Hancock getting here certainly is not a fluke, but Hudson has shown to be one of the best teams all year and their offense seems to be much more dynamic than West Hancock's

Prediction: Hudson 34 West Hancock 20 


CLASS A
Connor: #9 Edgewood-Colesburg (10-1) vs. #4 Avoca (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Edgewood-Colesburg by 5.14
Date: Friday November 9 @ 1:00 p.m.

Edgewood-Colesburg started off the 2018 high school football season with a 41-20 loss to Class 1A Bellevue. It still stands as the only loss Edgewood-Colesburg has suffered all year. Since then, the Golden Bears have run the table, concluding with a 6-0 win last week against an undefeated Bishop Garrigan.

The touchdown that won the game for the Golden Bears was a pass from quarterback Ethan Streicher to Spencer Staner – a wideout that had just 15 receptions over the season in an offense that didn’t pass much. Nonetheless, the pair found each other to put Edgewood-Colesburg into the Dome.

On the other side of things, Avoca comes into this game in a peculiar situation. They are no strangers to throwing the football, yet in their game against Newman Catholic, quarterback Blake Osbahr went 3-12, throwing for one touchdown and an interception. Osbahr threw for 1,941 yards this year and has a 61.4% completion percentage this year, so they were definitely not used to seeing his final line look like that. Overall though, Avoca moved on with a 17-point win.


Prediction: Edgewood-Colesburg 17, Avoca 10

CLASS 1A
TREVOR: West Sioux (10-1) vs. Van Meter (11-0), Saturday at 1 p.m. 
BCMoore Projection: West Sioux by 2.80

Not very often do a pair of state champions from the previous year meet in the postseason, but this is the case as West Sioux made the move up from Class 1A after winning the state title in Class A a year ago. Van Meter dozed their way to a Class 1A title last year and has dozed over anybody and everybody on their way to Cedar Falls. 

West Sioux had no trouble with the transition from A to 1A, dropping just one game all year, to 2A semifinalists Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley. The Falcons have won 10 in a row since then. The Falcons got to Cedar Fall by riding the cannon of quarterback Hunter Dekkers. Dekkers tossed for just over 3,000 yards and 41 scores this season. Kade Lynott was Dekkers' favorite target amassing 1,314 yards and 17 scores on 66-catches. Lynott also carried the pigskin for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns. Chase Koopmans compliment Lynott in both the rushing and receiving game, tallying just under 1,000 total yards and 18 touchdowns. On the defensive side, the Falcons have been greedy to say the least. Nine defenders have picked off at least one pass. Chase Ranschau leads the team with five picks. 

Van Meter, the defending state champion in Class 1A, has won 24 straight. Their last loss? A 35-14 defeat at the hands of Western Christian in a 2016 state semifinal. The Bulldogs have had a fairly balanced offense this season, led by signal-caller Anthony Potthoff's 20 passing touchdowns, Potthoff has also rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 scores. However, the straw that has stirred the drink for Van Meter has been running back Ian Abrahamson, who tallied 1,890 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. 

This could be the game of the weekend. These two teams have been, at least in my opinion, the top two or three teams in Class 1A. Both offenses are very balanced and it could come down to the quarterback that makes the least amount of mistakes, while the battle between Lynott and Abrahamson promises to provide much excitement and probably many touchdowns. All due respect to Dike-New Hartford and Pella Christian, but I think is essentially your state championship game. Does West Sioux keep their quest alive or does Van Meter garner consecutive win number 25? Should be fun.

Prediction: Van Meter 28 West Sioux 26


CLASS 1A
Connor: #8 Pella Christian (8-3) vs. #6 Dike-New Hartford (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Dike-New Hartford by 20.33
Date: Saturday November 10 @ 10:00 a.m.

I was really excited to get to write about this Class 1A game because I covered the Dike-New Hartford Wolverines game against Interstate 35 last week for 1460 KXnO. It wasn’t much of a game. Dike-New Hartford pulled away early and never looked back, winning 37-0… on the road.

Now, it’s not that the RPI system is bad. In fact, so far I really like it. It provided a lot of great games in the early rounds which is something that hasn’t happened much in recent years. Although, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Dike-New Hartford was heavily underrated.

The Wolverines were the lowest rated undefeated team in their class, and were even rated behind a team that finished 10-1. Not to worry… the Wolverines are here to prove the system wrong.

They’ll be lead to victory by cornerback Parker Kiewiet, who shut down Interstate 35’s top receiver last week and came home with a 48-yard interception. Not to mention Cade Bennett – one of two talented running backs in the Wolverines system that share the same first name – who rushed for 253 yards and three touchdowns for his team a week ago.

For Pella Christian, the Eagles have managed to win nailbiting games each of the past two weeks in order to qualify for the Dome. However, in their only matchup with the I-35 team that DNHHS played last week, Pella Christian was defeated. I think this one’s an easy one to call.

Prediction:  Dike-New Hartford 42, Pella Christian 13

CLASS 2A 
TREVOR: Waukon (10-1) vs. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (10-1), Saturday at 4 p.m.
BCMoore Projection: BHRV by 15.42

This semifinal features a pair of teams that have been accustomed to Cedar Falls. BHRV has been a staple at state football and state basketball for the last decade and are constantly state title contenders. This is not the Parker Hesse' led Waukon Indians but this still a darn good team. That's a good thing because they will have their hands full with BHRV this weekend.

Waukon began the season with a 24-20 loss to Decorah, but has since peeled off 10 straight wins, nine of which came by 10 points or more. The Indians got to Cedar Falls by narrowly defeating Algona 24-21 last week. Dictating the Indians offense has been quarterback Creed Welch (awesome name). Welch threw for 2193 yards and 27 touchdowns. Welch split the wealth this season between receivers Michael Sweeney and Dawson Baures, both receivers hauled in just over 900 receiving yards and caught 11 and 10 touchdowns respectively. Waukon can run it as well, powered by Baures 1,255 yards and 20 scores. On the defensive side, the duo of Avery Rocksvold and Brady Behrend combined to pick off 11-passes. Can they nab one this Saturday?

BHRV will certainly give them a handful of opportunities. Quarterback J.T. Van't Hul hurled for 1,889 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for another 826 yards and 14 scores. Van't Hul has been complimented by a pair of Van Kerix's, Elliott and Brayton who combined for just under 1000 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. BHRV has been propelled by a quadrant of pass catchers, Cody Post leads the team with 696 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Spencer Te Slaa has also added eight receiving touchdowns. 

Both offenses are fairly balanced that center around versatile quarterbacks capable of making just as many plays with their legs as they do with their arms. Watching the two quarterbacks display their athleticism will make this game worth the price of admission. Both teams also rely on solid running games and multiple wide receivers who are more than capable of providing their offenses with a spark. BHRV is projected to be a 15 point favorite, but I could see this one being closer than that, but football is just a different animal in northwest Iowa.

Prediction: BHRV 35 Waukon 22 


CLASS 2A
Connor: #16 West Liberty (8-3) vs. #1 Prairie City-Monroe (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Prairie City Monroe by 23.35
Date: Saturday November 10 @ 7:00 p.m.

In another 16-1 matchup, West Liberty will try to continue the streak they’re running on that has earned them a trip to the UNI-Dome. After a 1-3 start to the year, the Comets have gone on a roll. West Liberty won each of their next seven games, and they’re not just scraping by. Their closest game they’ve played during the win streak was a 27-9 win over Mount Vernon at the start of their streak.

The Comets come into the game lead by dual-threat quarterback Seth Feldman. Along with his 1,485 passing yards and 664 rushing yards this season, Feldman provided the biggest spark on the team in their 42-14 win over #4 Benton.

West Liberty will go up against the top Class 2A team in the state in Prairie City-Monroe. PCM has shown this season that they have the talent to beat anyone, sitting as the only undefeated team in the state. During the regular season, the most points PCM gave up was 18. It wasn’t until a week ago in the second round when Williamsburg put 34 points on the Mustangs that anyone eclipsed the 18-point mark. Nonetheless, PCM put up an impressive 55-point game to advance.

The Mustangs are lead by quarterback Reed Worth who threw for 2,065 yards and rushed for another 832, averaging 8.9 yards per carry this year. Along with his dynamic talents, PCM has got Wes Cummings in the backfield as well. The running back corralled 1,434 yards this season and has been a nightmare for defenses he’s faced this year.

I think if West Liberty plays their cards right, they can keep this one close, but overall PCM seems too good to lose. This one belongs to the Mustangs.


Prediction: Prairie City Monroe 29, West Liberty 18

CLASS 3A
Cedar Rapids, Xavier (11-0) vs. Lewis Central (11-0), Thursday at 8:15 p.m.
BCMoore Projection: CR Xavier by 0.97

Before I dive into this match-up I would like to point out that the fact that these two teams are facing in a semifinal rather than for the championship is dumb, dumb, dumb. I understand that these teams would have to see each other no matter what, but I think the state is missing out on a classic of a state title game. I think it's safe to say this game is probably the defacto state championship game because all year long it’s been clear that these are the top two teams in Class 3A.

The Saints of CR Xavier have rolled into Cedar Falls pitching five shutouts while outscoring opponents 451-40. Quarterback Quinn Schulte contributed in some form for 246 of those points. The senior quarterback threw for 23 touchdowns while also rushing for 18 scores and compiling over 2200 total yards of offense (1532 passing, 696 rushing). The Saints also boast a 1,000 yard rusher in Braden Stovie who carried the rock for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Schulte's favorite pass catcher this year was Kyle Moeder (we're not related). Moeder averaged just under 23 yards-per-catch, compiling 660 yards and eight touchdowns. Matt Jordebrek has also been a trusty option for Schulte. Jordebrek hauled in 14 catches for 276 yards.

I think it's safe to say that Lewis Central might have the best quarterback in the state in quarterback Max Duggan. Duggan, a TCU commit, threw for just under 2000 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, but the most dangerous part of his game is what he can do with his legs. The coach's son has rushed for just under 1,200 yards and 25 touchdowns this season and is coming off a 210-yard, four touchdown rushing effort in a 35-14 state quarterfinal win over Harlan. Running back Brady Miller has also been productive as of late for the Titans and they can also turn to Mike Gittins in the backfield. Duggan's favorite target has been wide receiver Josh Simmons, the senior has hauled in 51 passes for 982 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lewis Central has been just as dominant defensively as CR Xavier, but I think the special teams edge goes to the Titans because they have one of the best kickers in the state, Drake Nettles, who has committed to Iowa State and kicked a state long 54-yard field goal earlier this season.

As I mentioned, it's a shame that the state is being robbed of a potentially classic state title game, but then again half the state can't watch it anyway. BURN. Anyway, comparing these teams and making a prediction is nearly impossible, this is such a toss-up and I firmly believe whoever wins this game will be your state champion. I would not be surprised to be wrong but I have faith in the best quarterback and perhaps the best quarterback in the state.

Prediction: Lewis Central 24 Cedar Rapids, Xavier 21


CLASS 3A
Connor: #13 Western Dubuque (9-2) vs. #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton (10-1)
BC Moore Projection: Western Dubuque by 8.88
Date: Thursday November 8 @ 5:30 p.m.

If there was a prime example to have to point to flaws in the new RPI system that the Iowa High School Football Association uses, it’s this game right here. #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton will play in what is essentially the game between the highest and lowest seeded teams in Class 3A.

The twist is that SBL has one loss under their belts, when both teams in the #2 - #3 game are undefeated at 11-0. That even goes without mentioning the biggest flaw in the system. SBL’s loss came to #2 Council Bluffs Lewis Central by a whopping 28 points. Now, Lewis Central will play a fellow undefeated team in Cedar Rapids Xavier before the state championship.

It’s questionable to say the least, but here we are with a pair of big games coming up in Class 3A on Thursday. SBL’s offense contains two of the best players in Class 3A in junior quarterback Daniel Wright – second in QBR with a 175.2 – and senior halfback Britton Delperdang – second in yards with 1,501 on the year. If both of them are on their game, call BC Moore for the upset alert.

As for the Cinderella story that is Western Dubuque, the Bobcats come in with some impressive accolades. Quarterback Calvin Harris tallied 2,037 yards over the year with almost half of them coming to wide receiver Drake George (937 yards). Also in the backfield are two running backs in Jake Hosch and Ben Bryant who nearly matched each other’s yard totals combining for 1,512 yards. The biggest thing for SBL’s defense is to slow down the running backs. Even though Wright was held to three successful passing attempts last week, the two backs rushed for 307 yards and five touchdowns for a blowout win.


Prediction: Western Dubuque 21, Sergeant Bluff-Luton 20

CLASS 4A
Dowling Catholic (9-2) vs. Bettendorf (10-1), 4 p.m. on Friday 
BCMoore Projection: Dowling by 19.38

There was a time this year where it looked as if Dowling Catholic's bid for a sixth straight state championship was going to come up short, but now I think they have to be considered the favorite. The Maroons avenged an early season loss to Valley, WDM by blowing them out 31-9 last week to push their winning streak to seven in a row. During that span, they have outscored opponents 342 to 29, pitching five shutouts in that time. Their opponent, Bettendorf completed a season sweep of Iowa City, West. Their lone blemish came courtesy of fellow 4A semifinalist Cedar Falls.

Dowling quarterback Zach Watters threw for over 1,100 yards but compiled just eight touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. The focal point of Coach Tom Wilson's offense has been running back Jayson Murray. The speedster averaged just under nine yards per carry while amassing 1,929 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns. He is going to be a huge part of what Dowling does offensively Friday. On the defensive side, they pride themselves on turnovers, picking off 18 passes and scooping up 10 fumbles. The Maroons turned three of those turnovers into scores this season.

Bettendorf has been led by quarterback Carter Bell. The senior signal caller threw for 1,338 yards and 11 touchdowns and rushed for 762 yards and 11 touchdowns. Senior running back Austin Kalar has been the main breadwinner for the Bulldogs this season, running for 1,185 yards and 20 touchdowns. While in the passing game, the Bulldogs rely on six-foot-four wide receiver Darien Porter to find the football and he's done that 27-times for 440 yards and seven touchdowns. They also boast a strong possession receiver in Brandon Tillman, who has corralled 34 passes for 498 yards.

The RPI does not favor Dowling Catholic in this one, but good ol' BCMoore does. The key to this game for Dowling will undoubtedly be Murray. If Bettendorf contains him, they should win. The problem is that nobody has been able to do that so far and I don't think it will happen here. Perhaps Dowling's sixth state championship is just meant to be.

Prediction: Dowling 24 Bettendorf 7

CLASS 4A
Connor: #16 SE Polk (6-5) vs. #3 Cedar Falls (11-0)
BC Moore Projection: Cedar Falls by 17.95
Date: Thursday Friday November 9 @ 7:00 p.m.

Still alive and onto the semifinals is the Southeast Polk Rams. They schedule hard, they fight each and every week, and they took down the #1 rated team in the state in the first ever 16-1 upset in the RPI era.

The Rams have used to phenomenal defensive performances to knock off Ankeny Centennial – a team they lost to in the regular season 31-10 – and most recently Johnston. Against the Dragons, SEP earned four interceptions in a combined effort by seniors TJ Armstrong, Daniel Hackbarth (with two picks), and freshman Xavier Nwankpa. That defense is going to be what wins SEP the game if they advance to the title.

For Cedar Falls, it’s all about the offense. The team has not failed to score 28 points during the entirety of the season – though I’m calling for them to due to SEP’s defense this week. SEP will be one of the toughest tests they’ve faced, but Cedar Falls has the players. Wideout Logan Wolf finished with 1,110 yards this season in what has been a dominant year for the senior. Not to mention the rushing performance we saw out of Sam Gary last week. Gary touched the ball 31 times rushing for 225 yards and two scores against the Waukee Warriors – who beat SEP by seven early in the regular season.

As much as I want to scream, “WEST SIDE,” this is where the Rams run comes to an end. CF by two – thanks for reading along with us everyone, I’m thrilled we could make this thing happen. We both owe a lot to the University of Iowa’s journalism program where Trevor and I met. It’s pretty sweet to come away from a journalism camp with lifelong friends and resources you meet and work with along the way. Enjoy the games this weekend.


Prediction: Cedar Falls 19, SEP 17






Friday, November 2, 2018

The Eight Most Intriguing Iowa High School Football Quarterfinal Games.

The high school football regular season has come and gone, as did the first round of the postseason. 331 teams began the year with the hopes of concluding their season by hoisting a state championship trophy in Cedar Falls, now only 48 teams still have that dream attainable to them.

The first round of postseason brought us tons of excitement, given that a trip to the UNIDome is on the line, I think it's safe to say that this week could possibly provide even more excitement.

There are a total of 24 games this weekend, my pal Connor Ferguson and I have you covered with the eight  most interesting matchups this weekend.

CLASS 8-MAN
Trevor: #6 Southeast Warren (11-0) at #2 Ar-We-Va (10-0)
BC Moore Projection: Ar-We-Va by 25.01

Don't let the spread fool you, this matchup has the potential to be loads of fun.

Southeast Warren made the drop to eight man at the absolute right time. The Warhawks returned their leading passer (Colby Page), rusher (Alex Hommer) and receiver (Kaleb Bauer) from a 4-5 team in 2017. Coach Shane Rowland's squad has put up video game numbers, averaging over 59 points a game led by Pages 34 passing scores and Hommer's 1,337 rushing yards with 24- touchdowns. The Warhawks stepped up defensively as well, winning by an average of 43 points per game. 

Their opponent, Ar-We-Va also comes into Friday night undefeated. The Rockets, who in year's past have relied on the philosophy of "just outscore the other team by one point," has made a vast improvement defensively. This year, the Rockets held their opponents to 14 points or less all but twice. The Rockets' offense has held true to what you would expect from an Ar-We-Va offense, the Rockets' like to sling it with quarterback Keegan Simons (1,798 Yards, 27 TDs and 3 INTS), but they can also hurt you in the running game thanks to the duo of Simons (546 yards and 18 scores) and Drew Schurke (629 yards and 9 TD's). 

This game could be a shootout or a defensive battle, neither one would surprise me. I look forward to the battle of Page/Simons against the respective defenses. Something is going to have to give and it's tough to forecast which one it will be. However, I've seen Ar-We-Va play twice this year and I can confidently say that they are the best 8-man team I've seen this year and I don't think they've played their best football yet.

Prediction: Ar-We-Va 42 Southeast Warren 32



CLASS 8-MAN
Connor: #9 New London (9-1) at #1 Iowa Valley (10-0)
BC Moore Projection: Iowa Valley by 1.54

Defense wins championships. That’s a saying we’ve all heard in sports, and there might be some truth to it, but it isn’t going to be what wins this Friday’s game between No. 1 Iowa Valley (10-0) and No. 9 New London (9-1).

When these two teams play, offense is the name of the game. In their first-round playoff matchups, the Tigers and Whalers combined for 152 points in their wins, and the offensive statistical wonders don’t stop there. In the team’s nine wins this year, New London averaged 63.1 points per game, routing each opponent they played and never failing to score 42 points or more.

However, the Whalers were upended once this year – to Iowa Valley. Uncharacteristically, both teams in the matchup were held to under 30 points, something no other teams on either’s schedules could do. Iowa Valley won the first matchup 22-12.

For both teams to find a different result in this one, they will need to get their running back’s gears turning. Iowa Valley’s Ben Smith and Noah Mumby have nearly combined for 2,000 yards between themselves this season, but both were held to under 70 yards in the first matchup. The same goes for Keontae Luckett, Isaac McSorley and Jordan Johnson from New London. All three of the Whaler running backs have been on their game this season, that is until they got to the Iowa Valley game.
This one is pretty simple: The better rushing attack will win.

Prediction:  Iowa Valley 28, New London 24

CLASS A
Trevor: #14 Newman Catholic (8-2) at #4 AHSTW (10-0)
BcMoore Projection: AHSTW by 7.02 

Both of these teams are coming off the emotional rollercoaster of winning an overtime game, Newman Catholic downed North Tama with a field goal to advance with a 31-28 win. As for AHSTW, I'll be honest, there was a point on Friday night where I thought the Vikings season was over, but AHSTW picked up an exciting 30-28 win over Alta-Aurelia. During said overtime, the Vikings had to rely on a missed field goal and an unsuccessful two point conversion to keep their season alive, which is exactly what they did.

Newman Catholic had displayed a balanced offense this season, relying on the arm of Merritt McCardle for 879 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the legs of Ben Jacobs for 881 yards and 15 scores. Jacobs' running back counterpart, Josh Fitzgerald has provided the Knights with a two-headed monster, amassing 872 yards and nine scores, Fitzgerald has also hauled in 22 catches for 257 yards and seven touchdowns. 

AHSTW had some big shoes to fill this year after graduating their do all quarterback RJ Harris, but Blake Osbahr has filled those shoes quite well, chucking the pigskin for 1,859 yards (3rd best in Class A), 27 touchdowns (best in Class A) and just four interceptions. Osbahr's favorite target has been speedster Drake Partridge, who is responsible for 879 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Vikings have rushed for 2,128 yards this season and the bruiser that is Gabe Pauley is responsible for 1417 yards. The 2018 Class 1A 170 pound state wrestling champion has carried defenders into the endzone 22 times this season.  

I think it's safe to say that both these offenses are pretty balanced. AHSTW has the advantage in the passing game and Newman Catholic has the slight edge in the rushing game (just slight). The team that steps up and makes the biggest or most defensive plays will probably advance to the UNIDome. Newman Catholic has the advantage in the turnover comparison (22 to 16), but turnovers nearly cost AHSTW the win last week and I think coach Davis Pattee is going to emphasize the importance of ball security this week.

Prediction: AHSTW 36 Newman Catholic 30

CLASS 1A
Trevor: #9 West Sioux (9-1) at #1 South Central Calhoun (10-0)
BCMoore Projection: West Sioux by 1.48

The fact that West Sioux is a one point favorite according to BCMoore, but ranked eight spots lower than South Central Calhoun in RPI is an interesting dynamic, but I think it also speaks to the level of football that is played in northwestern Iowa.

 The Falcons dropped their season opener to Class 2A powerhouse Boyden/Hull-Rock Valley, but then peeled of nine-straight wins, pitching three shutouts and holding their opponents to 14 points or less seven times while scoring 35 or more points in every game. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers was a large part of their nine game winning streak tossing for 2,774 yards (2nd most in 1A) and a 1A best 38 touchdowns. Junior Kade Lynott has also been a major staple in the Falcons' season, racking up 1,952 yards (771 rushing, 1181 receiving) and 26 touchdowns (10 rushing and 16 receiving). Wide receiver Chase Koopmans has also made tons of plays, picking up just over 900 yards while finding the end zone 16 times. 

As for top-ranked South Central Calhoun, they have relied heavily on their superb defense. The Titans have allowed just 36-points so far this season. Their defense lived up to expectations last week with a 10-0 win over West Lyon, but don't kid yourself, the offense can put up points if need be, averaging just under 37-points per game. Quarterback Cole Corey has been calling shots for the Titans this year, tossing for five scores, but SCC has earned most of their offensive production in the running game, averaging just over 200 yards per game and scoring 29 of their 39 offensive touchdowns on the ground. 

This game looks like it's going to be a throwback type of game. South Central Calhoun's defense has stood tall all season, but the West Sioux offense is the best one they've seen to date. West Sioux just contained one of Class 1A's best rushing attacks (Treynor), but it's been nearly impossible to score on South Central Calhoun's defense and they've picked off 16 passes this year. I think West Sioux will sling it this week and the Titans take advantage of that at least once. Defense does win championship or at least this game. 

Prediction: South Central Calhoun 14 West Sioux 7 

Connor: #6 Dike-New Hartford (10-0) at #3 Interstate 35 (10-0)
BC Moore Projection: Dike-New Hartford by 22.99

This might be one of the more peculiar matchups in the state for this week’s second round playoff action. Two 10-0 teams in #6 Dike-New Hartford and #3 Interstate 35 will face off on Friday night, with little outlook on who has had the better year so far. Neither team played any of the same ten opponents leading up to Friday, and of course they haven’t played each other yet, either.

With that being said, Interstate 35 comes into this one with two dynamic weapons on offense that Dike-New Hartford will have to pay attention to. The Roadrunners’ arsenal includes running back Mason Cassady, who’s rushed for 1,377 yards and 18 touchdowns so far this year. Add in wideout Richie Griglione’s 797 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Roadrunners seemed fully staffed to make a run to the UNI-Dome. The key to the win for Dike-New Hartford will include keeping those two out of the end zone at all costs.

As for Dike-New Hartford, the Wolverines come into the game with a heavy rushing offense. So heavy, in fact, that quarterback Drew Sonnenberg has only thrown the ball 109 times this season. That’s an average of 10.9 actual passes per game. Though, Sonnenberg has made a case for his team to possibly pass the ball just a little bit more. In his 109 attempts, Sonnenberg has completed 74 of them – good for 67.9% - with 1,277 yards and 15 touchdowns. Behind him is running back Cade Bennett and utility star Cade Fuller. Bennett has been getting the heavier load in carries turning 164 of them into 1,445 yards and 19 scores, though Fuller isn’t too far behind. Fuller – while have gotten 44 carries this season – leads the team in receptions and receiving yards corralling 24 catches for 439 yards this year.

All three will be a problem for the Roadrunners defense on Saturday, though the winner will be decided on which team can contain the opposing stars the most.

Prediction:  I-35 24, Dike-New Hartford 23

CLASS 2A
Trevor: # 7 Southeast Valley (8-2) at #1 Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (9-1)
BCMoore Projection: BHRV by 31.75

Before you ask how a team with a loss can have the top RPI, let me inform you that the Nighthawks lone loss this season was a 14-point road loss to 3A No. 1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton. BHRV has been dominant the last few years while their opponent Southeast Valley has improved every year and finds themselves at 8-2 with a win over No. 5 Algona earlier this year.

Jaguar quarterback Hunter Kruse has racked up 1,435 yards and 17 scores through the air, but the Jaguars got to 8-2 by relying on the run game, particularly senior Kyler Fisher, who rushed for just shy of 2000-yards and found the end zone 33 times this season. Not to mention he's coming off a first round win over OABCIG in which he rushed for 316 yards and seven touchdowns. He's good and if they want to tame the beast that is BHRV, he might have to put up a similar game. 

Speaking of the beast that is BHRV, the Nighthawks (awesome name btw), have cruised since their midseason hiccup, outscoring their last six opponents-275 to 43. Quarterback JT Van't Hul threw for 1,739 yards and 19 scores, but he's also dangerous with his legs, racking up 710 rushing yards and 11 scores. Van't Hul is not their only rushing threat, teammate Elliott Van Kekerix carried the rock for 655 yards and 9 scores. On the defensive side of the ball, BHRV has forced 25 turnovers on the season.

BHRV is the better team on paper, I don't think there's any doubt about that, but Fisher could be the game-changer for Southeast Valley. Can he put up a performance even close to what he did last week? If he does, then I think the Jaguars have a chance to win it, but BHRV is so good.

Prediction: BHRV 34 Southeast Valley 14


CLASS 3A
Trevor: #10 Harlan (8-2) at #2 Lewis Central (10-0)
BCMoore Projection: Lewis Central by 32.64

I honestly did not know this until this week, but Lewis Central has never made it to a state semifinal, I assumed they had got there at least once, but they have not, however, they can change that with a win over Hawkeye Ten foe Harlan. The Cyclones, on the other hand have been a staple in Cedar Falls and are looking for their 28th semifinal appearance. This weeks meeting marks the second meeting of the year between these teams, Lewis Central took the first battle 49-14.

I can confidently say that I think Harlan is the best two-loss team in the state, with the exception of maybe Dowling. As I mentioned, the Cyclones dropped to Lewis Central, their other loss came courtesy of a two-point loss to No. 1 Sergeant Bluff on a last second touchdown. Last year, Harlan relied on the dynamic playmaking of Nick Foss, but he's at Minnesota State-Mankato now, so they had to replace him this season. The Cyclones have preferred to beat teams threw the air with quarterback Preston Mulligan tossing for just under 2500 yards and 29 touchdowns. Mulligan has plenty of weapons with Eli Bouldan (33 rec, 784 yards and 9 TD's), Johnathan Monson (39 catches, 600 yards, 5 TD's) and Brett Sears (25 rec, 538 yards and 12 TD's). They can also make plays through the ground, led by Alex Schechinger's 601-yards and seven touchdowns.

As for Lewis Central, they are led by the treat that is quarterback Max Duggan. The TCU commit has thrown for 1,878 yards, 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions, both of which came last week against Carroll. Duggan has also been able to make plays with his legs rushing for 981 yards and 21 touchdowns. Running back Mike Gittins has complimented Duggan in the run game, carrying the pigskin for 572 yards and nine scores. In the passing game, Duggan's favorite target has been Josh Simmons, who has hauled in 45 catches for 925 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Titan defense has picked off 11 passes this season, five of which have came in their last two games. Championship teams create turnovers.

This is the game I will be at this week and I'm super stoked for it. Duggan went off in their first meeting, posting 307 yards  (192 passing, 115 rushing) and six touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), but I think it would be very naive to underestimate Harlan and their legendary coach Curt Bladt. Coach Bladt will have his team ready to play and they will give Lewis Central their best shot, but will it be enough?

Prediction: Lewis Central 31 Harlan 28


CLASS 4A
Trevor: #16 Southeast Polk (5-5) at #8 Johnston (8-2)
BCMoore Projection: Johnston by 4.68

I did not expect to be previewing Southeast Polk/Johnston, I don't know that anyone did, but give credit to Southeast Polk, they pulled off the upset of the season last week a thrilling 21-17 win over top ranked Ankeny Centennial. The Rams started the season 1-5, but have peeled off four straight victories and seem to be playing their best football when it matters the most. Their opponent, Johnston suffered two losses this season, both in entirely different fashions, one a 27-0 drubbing to Dowling Catholic and a 31-30 heartbreaker to Waukee.

The Rams have relied heavily on the run game all season, powered by the two-headed monster of quarterback Josiah Cole (848 yards, 13 TD's) and Division 1 running back Gavin Williams (1051 yards, 10 TD's). Those two were the key cog in their upset last week, rushing for a combined 238 yards and two touchdowns in the win, I think it's safe to say that those two are going to have to step up again if the Rams are to pull of another upset.

Johnston offense is a bit more balanced, led by quarterback Andrew Nord, who has thrown for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns while also adding 678 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Nord has been complimenting in the run game by Jordan Rusch (658 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Nuutele Davis (319 yards, 8 touchdowns). The combo of Rusch and Davis is a "thunder and lightning" duo for the Dragons, Rusch has shown the explosive playmaking ability (his longest TD run is 68 yards) while all eight of Davis' scores have come from within 14-yards.

Southeast Polk making it to Cedar Falls with a 6-5 record would be quite the story and it's not entirely inconceivable. If you enjoy quality rushing attacks, then this is the game for you. I think Southeast Polk is going to have to rely on big games from Cole and Williams once again while also avoiding turning the ball over to a very opportunistic Johnston defense. Will the Rams keep their magical postseason rolling? Can Johnston advance to their first ever state semifinal?

Prediction: Southeast Polk 20 Johnston 16 


Monday, October 15, 2018

District Championship scenarios for Class 8-Man heading into Week 9.

We are coming up on the last week of 2018 high school football regular season. With the IAHSAA's RPI system and the fact that only the district champion automatically qualifies for the postseason, the importance of winning a district title is more important than ever.

Who are the district champions going to be? Well, why don't we look at that and break down the scenarios that could take place in Class 8-Man.

DISCLAIMER: RPI Rankings are based on what they were after Week 7 since the most recent RPI's have been not published by the IAHSAA yet.

DISCLAIMER #2: Any team that shares a district champion also qualifies for the postseason, effectively taking away a wild card spot. 
                              DISTRICT 1
DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Ar-We-Va, Westside600800
Newell-Fonda510710
West Bend-Mallard420530
St. Mary's, Remsen420530
Kingsley-Pierson240440
Harris-Lake Park240350
River Valley, Correctionville150260
Clay Central-Everly06008
0

                                            KEY GAMES THIS WEEK
  • Ar-We-Va at River Valley
  • West Bend-Mallard at Newell-Fonda
                                                            SCENARIOS
·        Ar-We-Va has clinched the district title. Newell-Fonda can become co-champion with a win and an Ar-We-Va loss. Ar-We-Va has tiebreaker over Newell-Fonda via head-to-head win. 
DISTRICT 2
DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Northwood-Kensett600800
Don Bosco, Gilbertville510710
Rockford510710
Janesville330450
Tripoli240350
Dunkerton240350
Riceville150350
North Iowa, Buffalo Center060170
KEY GAMES THIS WEEK
  • Don Bosco at Riceville
  • Northwood-Kensett at Rockford 
                                                                SCENARIOS
·        Northwood-Kensett has clinched at least a share. They can clinch outright with win vs. Rockford. If Rockford wins, they clinch district title with win and Don Bosco loss. If Rockford beats Northwood-Kensett and Don Bosco wins, Don Bosco is district champion. Here is how these teams have fared against each other this season 

--Northwood-Kensett beat Don Bosco (18-0)
--Don Bosco beat Rockford (80-6)
--Rockford vs. Northwood-Kensett this week.


DISTRICT 3
DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Central City510710
Midland, Wyoming510810
Turkey Valley, Jackson Junction510710
Springville330540
Easton Valley330440
Kee, Lansing240260
Central, Elkader150170
West Central, Maynard060170

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK 
  • Central Elkader at Turkey Valley 
  • Midland, Wyoming at Kee, Lansing
  • Springville at Central City 
SCENARIOS 
·        This one is in a three-way tie. If Midland-Wyoming, Central City and Turkey Valley all win, district title will be decided by RPI (Central City 4th, Turkey Valley 7th, Midland-Wyoming 14th). If Midland-Wyoming and Central City win but Turkey Valley loses, Midland is the true district champion and Central City is co-champion, if Central City and Turkey Valley win but Midland loses, Central City is the district champion and Turkey Valley is co-champion. If Turkey Valley and Midland win but Central City loses, Turkey Valley is your true champion with Midland becoming co-champion. Here's how these teams fared against each other this season.

---Turkey Valley beat Midland-Wyoming (46-36)
---Midland-Wyoming beat Central City (40-28)
---Central City beat Turkey Valley (56-42)

DISTRICT 4
 DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Iowa Valley, Marengo700800
New London610710
H-L-V, Victor610710
WACO, Wayland430530
Lone Tree340350
English Valleys, North English340440
Montezuma250260
Winfield-Mt. Union170180
Tri-County, Thornburg070070
KEY GAMES THIS WEEK
  • HLV, Victor at Iowa Valley
  • Montezuma at New London

SCENARIOS
·        : Iowa Valley has clinched at least a share of district title. They can clinch outright with win over HLV-Victor. HLV-Victor clinches district title with win and New London loss. New London clinches district title with a win and an HLV-Victor win over Iowa Valley. Here is how these teams have fared against each other this season.

   ---Iowa Valley beat New London (22-12)
   ---New London beat HLV-Victor (51-16)

   ---Iowa Valley vs. HLV-Victor this week 

                                   DISTRICT 5
 DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Gladbrook-Reinbeck600620
AGWSR, Ackley510530
Melcher-Dallas420440
Collins-Maxwell330360
Twin Cedars, Bussey330450
Baxter240260
Colo-Nesco150180
Meskwaki Settlement School060080

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK
  • Colo-Nesco at Gladbrook-Reinbeck
  • AGWSR, Ackley at Twin Cedars
SCENARIOS
·        Gladbrook-Reinbeck has clinched the district championship. AGSWR, Ackley can become co-champ with win vs. Twin-Cedars.
   ---Gladbrook-Reinbeck beat AGWSR, Ackley last week (44-19)



                                  
                                                              DISTRICT 6
 DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Southeast Warren, Liberty Center600900
Lenox510620
Lamoni510530
East Union, Afton330440
Mormon Trail, Garden Grove240440
Moravia240350
Murray150350
Seymour060170

              KEY GAMES THIS WEEK.
  • Lamoni at Southeast Warren
  • Moravia at Lenox
THE SCENARIOS
     This one COULD get crazy. Southeast Warren has clinched at least a share of the district title. The Warhawks clinch outright district title with win vs. Lamoni. If Lamoni defeats Southeast Warren and Lenox defeats Moravia, it would create a three-way tie decided by RPI, as of right now; (SE Warren 5th, Lamoni 16th, Lenox 19th). If Lamoni defeats Southeast Warren and Lenox loses, Lamoni is the district champion. Here is how the three teams have fared against each other this season.

     ---Southeast Warren beat Lenox
     ---Lenox beat Lamoni
     ---Lamoni at Southeast Warren this week

                             DISTRICT 7
 DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Fremont-Mills, Tabor600710
Stanton600710
East Mills420620
Sidney330440
Bedford240260
Griswold240260
Essex150170
Clarinda Academy060080

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK
  • Stanton at Fremont-Mills 
SCENARIOS
This one is pretty cut and dry, Fremont-Mills and Stanton will play this week, the winner is the district champion.


                                       DISTRICT 8
 DistrictOverall
WinLossTieWinLossTie
Audubon510620
Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton510710
Woodbine420440
CAM, Anita330530
Coon Rapids-Bayard330440
Glidden-Ralston330530
Boyer Valley, Dunlap150170
West Harrison, Mondamin060080

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK 
  • Audubon at CAM. Anita
  • Exira-EHK at Coon Rapids, Bayard
  • Woodbine at Boyer Valley
SCENARIOS
Exira-EHK is your district champion with a win over Coon Rapids-Bayard. Audubon can become co-champion with a win IF Exira-EHK wins. If Exira-EHK loses and Audubon wins, Audubon is the outright champion. Woodbine can become a co-district champion with a win over Boyer Valley and losses by Audubon and Exira-EHK, true district champion would then be determined by RPI. (Exira-EHK 6th, Audubon 17th, Woodbine 34th). Here's how the three teams fared against each other this season.

----Exira-EHK beat Audubon (34-28)
----Audubon beat Woodbine (104-50)
----Woodbine beat Exira-EHK (49-45)

FINAL THOUGHTS
There are varying levels of excitement in each district heading into the final week of the regular season. Some teams such as Ar-We-Va, Gladbrook-Reinbeck and Southeast Warren have virtually wrapped up district championships, but just about every district has the possibility at the moment of being able to get two teams in, it most likely won't happen, but it will certainly make Friday night exciting. 


Monday, October 8, 2018

How the high school football playoffs would look if they started today

We are just 18-days away from the first round of postseason high school football. It seems like the season just started yesterday, but here we are. It's no secret, that the postseason format underwent a drastic change this year. Unlike in years past, finishing second in your district does not guarantee a postseason berth. Instead, only district champions automatically qualify. The rest of the postseason teams are determined by a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). The RPI, measures your record, your opponents record and your opponents-opponents record. So, the better the teams you beat, the better your chances are you have a strong RPI. Now, the RPI is far from perfect, points differential and classification do not factor in.

 For example, AHSTW and Valley, WDM are both 7-0. AHSTW plays in Class A, the smallest 11-man class, while Valley plays in 4A, the largest. A 14-13 win over AHSTW counts the same as a 63-0 win over Valley. That might be an extreme example, but it is what it is. The old postseason format emphasized point differential (in that case, the magic number was 17).

It is also worth noting, that any team that ties for a district title also receives an automatic playoff berth, unless the total amount of district champions exceeds 16. For example, in Class A, there are 10-districts. If seven of those districts have more than one champion, tiebreakers will be applied to determine the qualifiers.

At this moment, I count 21 out of the 52-possible districts that currently have co-champions, however, all but one of them are ties between teams that are unbeaten in their district and have yet to play each other. This means that there are at least 20-instances where a trip to the postseason will be decided in the next two weeks. I'm certain there will be a handful of districts that have co-champions (there were five last year), but that number will certainly not be-20. Which means some of these teams that are currently projected to be in the playoffs would not get in due to their RPI not being high enough and some teams that are on the outside looking in would qualify.

It's not perfect, but it is what it is.

Anyway, here are the 96-teams that would have an opportunity to win a state title if the postseason started this weekend.

In the event of co-champions, ties are broken by head-to-head competition, if the two teams have not met yet, then ties are broken by RPI ranking.

CLASS 4A
District Champions (11)
1. Dowling Catholic
2. Ankeny Centennial
3. Cedar Falls & Cedar Rapids Prairie (Cedar Falls has tie-breaker via RPI)
4. Iowa City West
5. Bettendorf & Davenport Central (Bettendorf has tiebreaker via RPI)
6. Johnston & Waukee (Johnston has tiebreaker via RPI)
7. WDM Valley & Ames (Valley has tiebreaker via RPI)

Teams that qualify via RPI Ranking (5) (Ranking in parentheses)
1. Indianola (8)
2. Fort Dodge (10)
3. Davenport North (13)
4. Pleasant Valley (15)
5. Muscatine (16)

Top 5 Teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs
1. Urbandale (17)
2. Cedar Rapids Kennedy (18)
3. Sioux City East (19)
4. Ankeny (20)
5. Marshalltown (21)

Since there are seven districts, one non-district champion will get to host a first-round game. That is determined by RPI Ranking, as things stand right now, Cedar Rapids Prairie has that privilege.

CLASS 3A 
District Champions (12)
1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2. Carroll
3. Independence & Decorah (Decorah has tiebreaker via RPI)
4. Cedar Rapids Xavier & Marion (CR Xavier has tiebreaker via RPI)
5. North Scott & Clear Creek (Clear Creek has tiebreaker via RPI)
6. Solon
7. Oskaloosa
8. Norwalk
9. Lewis Central

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (4)
1. Bishop Heelan (7)
2. Waverly-Shell Rock (9)
3. Harlan (11)
4. Spencer (12)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs 
1. Pella (13) 
2. Epworth, Western Dubuque (15)
3. Storm Lake (16)
4. Denison-Schleswig (17)
5. Glenwood (18)


CLASS 2A 
District Champions (12)
1. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
2. Algona & Southeast Valley (Algona has tiebreaker via RPI)
3. Crestwood-Cresco
4. Waukon
5. West Liberty
6. Williamsburg & Albia (Williamsburg has tiebreaker via RPI)
7. Union & West Marshall (West Marshall has tiebreaker via RPI)
8. PCM, Monroe
9. Kuemper Catholic

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (4)
1. Chariton (4)
2. Benton (6)
3. Spirit Lake (8)
4. OABCIG (9)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs.
1. Greene County (12)
2. Des Moines Christian (14)
3. Tipton (15)
4. Columbus Catholic (16)
5. Clear Lake & Red Oak (17)

Since there are nine districts, the district champion with the lowest RPI-ranking will travel in the first round, at the moment, Williamsburg, who has an RPI ranking of 23rd, would be the district champion forced to do so.


CLASS 1A
District Champions (13)
1. West Sioux
2. South Central Calhoun
3. Osage
4. Bellevue & Cascade (Bellevue has tiebreaker via RPI)
5. Wilton
6. Dike-New Hartford & Iowa City, Regina (Dike-New Hartford has tiebreaker via RPI)
7. Pella Christian & Interstate-35 (I-35 has tiebreaker via RPI)
8. Van Meter & Mount Ayr (Van Meter has tiebreaker via RPI)
9. Treynor 

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (3)
1. West Branch (6)
2. Sumner-Fredericksburg (11)
3. Mediapolis (14)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs
1. Sigourney-Keota (16)
2. West Lyon (17)
3. Woodward-Granger (18)
4. South Hamilton (19)
5. Underwood (20)

Since there are nine districts, the champion with the lowest RPI-ranking will play on the road to begin the playoffs, at the moment, Osage is that team.


CLASS A 
District Champions (15)
1. South O'Brien
2. Sioux Central & IKM-Manning (Sioux Central has tiebreaker via RPI)
3. Bishop Garrigan
4. Newman Catholic & St. Ansgar (Newman Catholic has tiebreaker via RPI)
5. Edgewood-Colesburg
6. Durant & BGM (BGM has tiebreaker via RPI)
7. Hudson
8. Lynnville-Sully 
9 AHSTW & St. Albert (AHSTW has tiebreaker via RPI)
10. Westwood & Lawton-Bronson (Westwood has tiebreaker via RPI)

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings
1. Grundy Center (7)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs
1. North Tama (9)
2. Belmond-Klemme (10)
3. Hinton (11)
4. Akron-Westfield (12)
5. Highland, Riverside (14) 

Since there are 10-districts, the two champions with the lowest RPI will be forced to travel for the first round. As of right now, those teams are; South O'Brien & Lynnville-Sully.


CLASS 8-MAN
District Champions (11)
1. Ar-We-Va
2. Northwood-Kensett
3. Central City
4. Iowa Valley
5. AGSWR & Gladbrook-Reinbeck (Gladbrook-Reinbeck has tiebreaker via RPI)
6. Southeast Warren
7. Fremont-Mills & Stanton (Fremont-Mills has tiebreaker via RPI)
8. Exira-EHK & Audubon (Exira-EHK has the tiebreaker via head-to-head win)

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings
1. Turkey Valley (7)
2. Don Bosco (8)
3. New London (9)
4. Newell-Fonda (11)
5. Rockford (12)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs
1. HLV, Victor (14)
2. Midland, Wyoming (15)
3. Lamoni (16)
4. St. Mary's Remsen (18)
5. Lenox (19)

This class only has eight districts, so winning your district title ensures at least one home playoff game. It's also worth mentioning that 8-Man District 8 is the only district that currently has co-champions, who have played each other. 


As I mentioned earlier, 20-games in the next two weeks will feature two teams that are tied for first-place in their respective districts. How these games turn out will shake up what teams qualify and what teams do not. For example, in Class 2A District 6, Williamsburg and Albia are tied for the lead, have yet to play each other and have RPI Rankings of 23 and 24 respectively, it is most likely that the loser of that game does not make the postseason and one of the teams currently on the outside will find themselves in the postseason. 

The RPI formula is not perfect or maybe even close, but the way things are shaping up, a lot is going to be on the line in the next two weeks. 

Regardless of what you think of the RPI, excitement in the final two weeks of the season cannot be a bad thing. 

Aggregate HS Football Rankings

It's hard to believe, but the 2018 high-school football season is just about over. It kinda makes me sad. It's been quite the year, there have been some dominant performances as well as some pleasant surprises.

In the preseason, I released an "aggregate" football rankings.

It's safe to say that things have not gone exactly the way it looked like they might in the pre-season.

So after seven weeks of action, here is an aggregate ranking of all-six classes. The rankings come from the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, Radio Iowa and Associated Press. For example, a first place ranking receives 10-points, second-place gets nine, etc...

There is a possibility of 40-total points for teams to acquire.

Anywho, here are those rankings. Points received are in parentheses.

Class 4A
  1. WDM Valley (40)
  2. Cedar Falls (35)
  3. Ankeny Centennial (33)
  4. Bettendorf (26.5)
  5. Dowling Catholic (23)
  6. Johnston (20.5)
  7. Iowa City West (18.5)
  8. Waukee (11)
  9. Cedar Rapids Prairie (9)
10. Indianola (2)
11. Fort Dodge (1)
      Ames (1) 

Class 3A
1. Cedar Rapids, Xavier (39)
2. Lewis Central (37)
3. Solon (31)
4. North Scott (29)
5. Clear Creek (22)
Sergeant Bluff-Luton (22)
7. Oskaloosa (12)
8. Bishop Heelan (11)
9. Pella (7.5)
10. Independence (4)
11. Epworth, Western Dubuque (2.5)
12. Waverly-Shell Rock (2)
13. Decorah (1)

Class 2A
1. PCM (40)
2. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (35)
3. Waukon (31)
4. Algona (30)
5. West Marshall (23)
6. Union Community (19.5)
7. Benton (17)
8. Spirit Lake (12.5)
9. Greene County (4)
10. Chariton (3)
11. Southeast Valley (2.5)
12. Clear Lake (1)
Crestwood-Cresco (1)
14. Kuemper Catholic (0.5)

Class 1A
1. Van Meter (37)
2. Dike-New Hartford (36)
3. South Central Calhoun (32)
4. West Sioux (28)
5. Bellevue (26)
6. West Branch (18)
7. Wilton (16)
8. Interstate-35 (15)
9. Pella Christian (6)
10. West Lyon (3)
11. Mediapolis (2)
12. Cascade (1)

Class A
1. Hudson (40)
2. Bishop Garrigan (35)
3. AHSTW (33)
4. North Tama (26)
5. BGM, Brooklyn (21)
6. Belmond-Klemme (20)
7. Edgewood-Colesburg (17)
8. Saint Ansgar (12)
9. West Hancock (6.5)
10. Wapsie Valley (4.5)
11. Grundy Center (2)
12. Newman Catholic (1)
Westwood (1)
Pekin (1)
15. Sioux Central (0.5)

8-Man 
1. Iowa Valley (36)
Northwood-Kensett (36)
3. Ar-We-Va (35)
4. Don Bosco (28)
5. Southeast Warren (19)
6. Central City (18)
7. New London (15)
8. Midland (11)
9. Fremont-Mills (10)
10. Newell-Fonda (6)
11. Exira-EHK (5)
12. Turkey Valley (1)