District Championship scenarios for Class 8-Man heading into Week 9.

We are coming up on the last week of 2018 high school football regular season. With the IAHSAA's RPI system and the fact that only the district champion automatically qualifies for the postseason, the importance of winning a district title is more important than ever.

Who are the district champions going to be? Well, why don't we look at that and break down the scenarios that could take place in Class 8-Man.

DISCLAIMER: RPI Rankings are based on what they were after Week 7 since the most recent RPI's have been not published by the IAHSAA yet.

DISCLAIMER #2: Any team that shares a district champion also qualifies for the postseason, effectively taking away a wild card spot. 

DISTRICT 1 District Overall Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie Ar-We-Va, Westside 6 0 0 8 0 0 Newell-Fonda 5 1 0 7 1 0 West Bend-Mallard 4 2 0 5 3 0 St. Mary's, Remsen 4 2 0 5 3 0 Kingsley-Pierson 2 4 0 4 4 0 Harris-Lake Park 2 4 0 3 5 0 River Valley, Correctionville 1 5 0 2 6 0 Clay Central-Everly 0 6 0 0 8 0

                                            KEY GAMES THIS WEEK

• Ar-We-Va at River Valley
• West Bend-Mallard at Newell-Fonda

                                                            SCENARIOS

·        Ar-We-Va has clinched the district title. Newell-Fonda can become co-champion with a win and an Ar-We-Va loss. Ar-We-Va has tiebreaker over Newell-Fonda via head-to-head win. 

DISTRICT 2

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Northwood-Kensett	6	0	0	8	0	0
Don Bosco, Gilbertville	5	1	0	7	1	0
Rockford	5	1	0	7	1	0
Janesville	3	3	0	4	5	0
Tripoli	2	4	0	3	5	0
Dunkerton	2	4	0	3	5	0
Riceville	1	5	0	3	5	0
North Iowa, Buffalo Center	0	6	0	1	7	0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK

• Don Bosco at Riceville
• Northwood-Kensett at Rockford 

                                                                SCENARIOS

·        Northwood-Kensett has clinched at least a share. They can clinch outright with win vs. Rockford. If Rockford wins, they clinch district title with win and Don Bosco loss. If Rockford beats Northwood-Kensett and Don Bosco wins, Don Bosco is district champion. Here is how these teams have fared against each other this season 

--Northwood-Kensett beat Don Bosco (18-0)

--Don Bosco beat Rockford (80-6)

--Rockford vs. Northwood-Kensett this week.

DISTRICT 3

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Central City	5	1	0	7	1	0
Midland, Wyoming	5	1	0	8	1	0
Turkey Valley, Jackson Junction	5	1	0	7	1	0
Springville	3	3	0	5	4	0
Easton Valley	3	3	0	4	4	0
Kee, Lansing	2	4	0	2	6	0
Central, Elkader	1	5	0	1	7	0
West Central, Maynard	0	6	0	1	7	0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK 

• Central Elkader at Turkey Valley 
• Midland, Wyoming at Kee, Lansing
• Springville at Central City 

SCENARIOS 

·        This one is in a three-way tie. If Midland-Wyoming, Central City and Turkey Valley all win, district title will be decided by RPI (Central City 4^th, Turkey Valley 7^th, Midland-Wyoming 14^th). If Midland-Wyoming and Central City win but Turkey Valley loses, Midland is the true district champion and Central City is co-champion, if Central City and Turkey Valley win but Midland loses, Central City is the district champion and Turkey Valley is co-champion. If Turkey Valley and Midland win but Central City loses, Turkey Valley is your true champion with Midland becoming co-champion. Here's how these teams fared against each other this season.

---Turkey Valley beat Midland-Wyoming (46-36)

---Midland-Wyoming beat Central City (40-28)

---Central City beat Turkey Valley (56-42)

DISTRICT 4

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Iowa Valley, Marengo	7	0	0	8	0	0
New London	6	1	0	7	1	0
H-L-V, Victor	6	1	0	7	1	0
WACO, Wayland	4	3	0	5	3	0
Lone Tree	3	4	0	3	5	0
English Valleys, North English	3	4	0	4	4	0
Montezuma	2	5	0	2	6	0
Winfield-Mt. Union	1	7	0	1	8	0
Tri-County, Thornburg	0	7	0	0	7	0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK

• HLV, Victor at Iowa Valley
• Montezuma at New London

SCENARIOS

·        : Iowa Valley has clinched at least a share of district title. They can clinch outright with win over HLV-Victor. HLV-Victor clinches district title with win and New London loss. New London clinches district title with a win and an HLV-Victor win over Iowa Valley. Here is how these teams have fared against each other this season.

   ---Iowa Valley beat New London (22-12)

   ---New London beat HLV-Victor (51-16)

   ---Iowa Valley vs. HLV-Victor this week 

                                   DISTRICT 5

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Gladbrook-Reinbeck	6	0	0	6	2	0
AGWSR, Ackley	5	1	0	5	3	0
Melcher-Dallas	4	2	0	4	4	0
Collins-Maxwell	3	3	0	3	6	0
Twin Cedars, Bussey	3	3	0	4	5	0
Baxter	2	4	0	2	6	0
Colo-Nesco	1	5	0	1	8	0
Meskwaki Settlement School	0	6	0	0	8	0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK

• Colo-Nesco at Gladbrook-Reinbeck
• AGWSR, Ackley at Twin Cedars

SCENARIOS

·        Gladbrook-Reinbeck has clinched the district championship. AGSWR, Ackley can become co-champ with win vs. Twin-Cedars.

   ---Gladbrook-Reinbeck beat AGWSR, Ackley last week (44-19)

                                  

                                                              DISTRICT 6

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Southeast Warren, Liberty Center	6	0	0	9	0	0
Lenox	5	1	0	6	2	0
Lamoni	5	1	0	5	3	0
East Union, Afton	3	3	0	4	4	0
Mormon Trail, Garden Grove	2	4	0	4	4	0
Moravia	2	4	0	3	5	0
Murray	1	5	0	3	5	0
Seymour	0	6	0	1	7	0

              KEY GAMES THIS WEEK.

• Lamoni at Southeast Warren
• Moravia at Lenox

THE SCENARIOS

     This one COULD get crazy. Southeast Warren has clinched at least a share of the district title. The Warhawks clinch outright district title with win vs. Lamoni. If Lamoni defeats Southeast Warren and Lenox defeats Moravia, it would create a three-way tie decided by RPI, as of right now; (SE Warren 5^th, Lamoni 16^th, Lenox 19^th). If Lamoni defeats Southeast Warren and Lenox loses, Lamoni is the district champion. Here is how the three teams have fared against each other this season.

     ---Southeast Warren beat Lenox

     ---Lenox beat Lamoni

     ---Lamoni at Southeast Warren this week

DISTRICT 7   District Overall Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie Fremont-Mills, Tabor 6 0 0 7 1 0 Stanton 6 0 0 7 1 0 East Mills 4 2 0 6 2 0 Sidney 3 3 0 4 4 0 Bedford 2 4 0 2 6 0 Griswold 2 4 0 2 6 0 Essex 1 5 0 1 7 0 Clarinda Academy 0 6 0 0 8 0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK

• Stanton at Fremont-Mills 

SCENARIOS

This one is pretty cut and dry, Fremont-Mills and Stanton will play this week, the winner is the district champion.

                                       DISTRICT 8

	District			Overall
	Win	Loss	Tie	Win	Loss	Tie
Audubon	5	1	0	6	2	0
Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton	5	1	0	7	1	0
Woodbine	4	2	0	4	4	0
CAM, Anita	3	3	0	5	3	0
Coon Rapids-Bayard	3	3	0	4	4	0
Glidden-Ralston	3	3	0	5	3	0
Boyer Valley, Dunlap	1	5	0	1	7	0
West Harrison, Mondamin	0	6	0	0	8	0

KEY GAMES THIS WEEK 

• Audubon at CAM. Anita
• Exira-EHK at Coon Rapids, Bayard
• Woodbine at Boyer Valley

SCENARIOS

Exira-EHK is your district champion with a win over Coon Rapids-Bayard. Audubon can become co-champion with a win IF Exira-EHK wins. If Exira-EHK loses and Audubon wins, Audubon is the outright champion. Woodbine can become a co-district champion with a win over Boyer Valley and losses by Audubon and Exira-EHK, true district champion would then be determined by RPI. (Exira-EHK 6^th, Audubon 17^th, Woodbine 34^th). Here's how the three teams fared against each other this season.

----Exira-EHK beat Audubon (34-28)

----Audubon beat Woodbine (104-50)

----Woodbine beat Exira-EHK (49-45)

FINAL THOUGHTS

There are varying levels of excitement in each district heading into the final week of the regular season. Some teams such as Ar-We-Va, Gladbrook-Reinbeck and Southeast Warren have virtually wrapped up district championships, but just about every district has the possibility at the moment of being able to get two teams in, it most likely won't happen, but it will certainly make Friday night exciting. 

How the high school football playoffs would look if they started today

We are just 18-days away from the first round of postseason high school football. It seems like the season just started yesterday, but here we are. It's no secret, that the postseason format underwent a drastic change this year. Unlike in years past, finishing second in your district does not guarantee a postseason berth. Instead, only district champions automatically qualify. The rest of the postseason teams are determined by a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). The RPI, measures your record, your opponents record and your opponents-opponents record. So, the better the teams you beat, the better your chances are you have a strong RPI. Now, the RPI is far from perfect, points differential and classification do not factor in.

 For example, AHSTW and Valley, WDM are both 7-0. AHSTW plays in Class A, the smallest 11-man class, while Valley plays in 4A, the largest. A 14-13 win over AHSTW counts the same as a 63-0 win over Valley. That might be an extreme example, but it is what it is. The old postseason format emphasized point differential (in that case, the magic number was 17).

It is also worth noting, that any team that ties for a district title also receives an automatic playoff berth, unless the total amount of district champions exceeds 16. For example, in Class A, there are 10-districts. If seven of those districts have more than one champion, tiebreakers will be applied to determine the qualifiers.

At this moment, I count 21 out of the 52-possible districts that currently have co-champions, however, all but one of them are ties between teams that are unbeaten in their district and have yet to play each other. This means that there are at least 20-instances where a trip to the postseason will be decided in the next two weeks. I'm certain there will be a handful of districts that have co-champions (there were five last year), but that number will certainly not be-20. Which means some of these teams that are currently projected to be in the playoffs would not get in due to their RPI not being high enough and some teams that are on the outside looking in would qualify.

It's not perfect, but it is what it is.

Anyway, here are the 96-teams that would have an opportunity to win a state title if the postseason started this weekend.

In the event of co-champions, ties are broken by head-to-head competition, if the two teams have not met yet, then ties are broken by RPI ranking.

CLASS 4A

District Champions (11)

1. Dowling Catholic

2. Ankeny Centennial

3. Cedar Falls & Cedar Rapids Prairie (Cedar Falls has tie-breaker via RPI)

4. Iowa City West

5. Bettendorf & Davenport Central (Bettendorf has tiebreaker via RPI)

6. Johnston & Waukee (Johnston has tiebreaker via RPI)

7. WDM Valley & Ames (Valley has tiebreaker via RPI)

Teams that qualify via RPI Ranking (5) (Ranking in parentheses)

1. Indianola (8)

2. Fort Dodge (10)

3. Davenport North (13)

4. Pleasant Valley (15)

5. Muscatine (16)

Top 5 Teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs

1. Urbandale (17)

2. Cedar Rapids Kennedy (18)

3. Sioux City East (19)

4. Ankeny (20)

5. Marshalltown (21)

Since there are seven districts, one non-district champion will get to host a first-round game. That is determined by RPI Ranking, as things stand right now, Cedar Rapids Prairie has that privilege.

Full RPI Rankings can be viewed here. 

CLASS 3A 

District Champions (12)

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton

2. Carroll

3. Independence & Decorah (Decorah has tiebreaker via RPI)

4. Cedar Rapids Xavier & Marion (CR Xavier has tiebreaker via RPI)

5. North Scott & Clear Creek (Clear Creek has tiebreaker via RPI)

6. Solon

7. Oskaloosa

8. Norwalk

9. Lewis Central

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (4)

1. Bishop Heelan (7)

2. Waverly-Shell Rock (9)

3. Harlan (11)

4. Spencer (12)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs 

1. Pella (13) 

2. Epworth, Western Dubuque (15)

3. Storm Lake (16)

4. Denison-Schleswig (17)

5. Glenwood (18)

Full RPI rankings can be viewed here. 

CLASS 2A 

District Champions (12)

1. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley

2. Algona & Southeast Valley (Algona has tiebreaker via RPI)

3. Crestwood-Cresco

4. Waukon

5. West Liberty

6. Williamsburg & Albia (Williamsburg has tiebreaker via RPI)

7. Union & West Marshall (West Marshall has tiebreaker via RPI)

8. PCM, Monroe

9. Kuemper Catholic

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (4)

1. Chariton (4)

2. Benton (6)

3. Spirit Lake (8)

4. OABCIG (9)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs.

1. Greene County (12)

2. Des Moines Christian (14)

3. Tipton (15)

4. Columbus Catholic (16)

5. Clear Lake & Red Oak (17)

Since there are nine districts, the district champion with the lowest RPI-ranking will travel in the first round, at the moment, Williamsburg, who has an RPI ranking of 23rd, would be the district champion forced to do so.

Full RPI rankings can be viewed here.

CLASS 1A

District Champions (13)

1. West Sioux

2. South Central Calhoun

3. Osage

4. Bellevue & Cascade (Bellevue has tiebreaker via RPI)

5. Wilton

6. Dike-New Hartford & Iowa City, Regina (Dike-New Hartford has tiebreaker via RPI)

7. Pella Christian & Interstate-35 (I-35 has tiebreaker via RPI)

8. Van Meter & Mount Ayr (Van Meter has tiebreaker via RPI)

9. Treynor 

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings (3)

1. West Branch (6)

2. Sumner-Fredericksburg (11)

3. Mediapolis (14)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs

1. Sigourney-Keota (16)

2. West Lyon (17)

3. Woodward-Granger (18)

4. South Hamilton (19)

5. Underwood (20)

Since there are nine districts, the champion with the lowest RPI-ranking will play on the road to begin the playoffs, at the moment, Osage is that team.

Full RPI rankings can be viewed below. 

CLASS A 

District Champions (15)

1. South O'Brien

2. Sioux Central & IKM-Manning (Sioux Central has tiebreaker via RPI)

3. Bishop Garrigan

4. Newman Catholic & St. Ansgar (Newman Catholic has tiebreaker via RPI)

5. Edgewood-Colesburg

6. Durant & BGM (BGM has tiebreaker via RPI)

7. Hudson

8. Lynnville-Sully 

9 AHSTW & St. Albert (AHSTW has tiebreaker via RPI)

10. Westwood & Lawton-Bronson (Westwood has tiebreaker via RPI)

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings

1. Grundy Center (7)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs

1. North Tama (9)

2. Belmond-Klemme (10)

3. Hinton (11)

4. Akron-Westfield (12)

5. Highland, Riverside (14) 

Since there are 10-districts, the two champions with the lowest RPI will be forced to travel for the first round. As of right now, those teams are; South O'Brien & Lynnville-Sully.

Full RPI rankings can be viewed here. 

CLASS 8-MAN

District Champions (11)

1. Ar-We-Va

2. Northwood-Kensett

3. Central City

4. Iowa Valley

5. AGSWR & Gladbrook-Reinbeck (Gladbrook-Reinbeck has tiebreaker via RPI)

6. Southeast Warren

7. Fremont-Mills & Stanton (Fremont-Mills has tiebreaker via RPI)

8. Exira-EHK & Audubon (Exira-EHK has the tiebreaker via head-to-head win)

Teams that qualify via RPI Rankings

1. Turkey Valley (7)

2. Don Bosco (8)

3. New London (9)

4. Newell-Fonda (11)

5. Rockford (12)

Top 5 teams by RPI rankings that miss playoffs

1. HLV, Victor (14)

2. Midland, Wyoming (15)

3. Lamoni (16)

4. St. Mary's Remsen (18)

5. Lenox (19)

This class only has eight districts, so winning your district title ensures at least one home playoff game. It's also worth mentioning that 8-Man District 8 is the only district that currently has co-champions, who have played each other. 

Full RPI Rankings can be viewed below. 

As I mentioned earlier, 20-games in the next two weeks will feature two teams that are tied for first-place in their respective districts. How these games turn out will shake up what teams qualify and what teams do not. For example, in Class 2A District 6, Williamsburg and Albia are tied for the lead, have yet to play each other and have RPI Rankings of 23 and 24 respectively, it is most likely that the loser of that game does not make the postseason and one of the teams currently on the outside will find themselves in the postseason. 

The RPI formula is not perfect or maybe even close, but the way things are shaping up, a lot is going to be on the line in the next two weeks. 

Regardless of what you think of the RPI, excitement in the final two weeks of the season cannot be a bad thing. 

Aggregate HS Football Rankings

It's hard to believe, but the 2018 high-school football season is just about over. It kinda makes me sad. It's been quite the year, there have been some dominant performances as well as some pleasant surprises.

In the preseason, I released an "aggregate" football rankings.

It's safe to say that things have not gone exactly the way it looked like they might in the pre-season.

So after seven weeks of action, here is an aggregate ranking of all-six classes. The rankings come from the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, Radio Iowa and Associated Press. For example, a first place ranking receives 10-points, second-place gets nine, etc...

There is a possibility of 40-total points for teams to acquire.

Anywho, here are those rankings. Points received are in parentheses.

Class 4A

  1. WDM Valley (40)

  2. Cedar Falls (35)

  3. Ankeny Centennial (33)

  4. Bettendorf (26.5)

  5. Dowling Catholic (23)

  6. Johnston (20.5)

  7. Iowa City West (18.5)

  8. Waukee (11)

  9. Cedar Rapids Prairie (9)

10. Indianola (2)

11. Fort Dodge (1)

      Ames (1) 

Class 3A

1. Cedar Rapids, Xavier (39)

2. Lewis Central (37)

3. Solon (31)

4. North Scott (29)

5. Clear Creek (22)

Sergeant Bluff-Luton (22)

7. Oskaloosa (12)

8. Bishop Heelan (11)

9. Pella (7.5)

10. Independence (4)

11. Epworth, Western Dubuque (2.5)

12. Waverly-Shell Rock (2)

13. Decorah (1)

Class 2A

1. PCM (40)

2. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (35)

3. Waukon (31)

4. Algona (30)

5. West Marshall (23)

6. Union Community (19.5)

7. Benton (17)

8. Spirit Lake (12.5)

9. Greene County (4)

10. Chariton (3)

11. Southeast Valley (2.5)

12. Clear Lake (1)

Crestwood-Cresco (1)

14. Kuemper Catholic (0.5)

Class 1A

1. Van Meter (37)

2. Dike-New Hartford (36)

3. South Central Calhoun (32)

4. West Sioux (28)

5. Bellevue (26)

6. West Branch (18)

7. Wilton (16)

8. Interstate-35 (15)

9. Pella Christian (6)

10. West Lyon (3)

11. Mediapolis (2)

12. Cascade (1)

Class A

1. Hudson (40)

2. Bishop Garrigan (35)

3. AHSTW (33)

4. North Tama (26)

5. BGM, Brooklyn (21)

6. Belmond-Klemme (20)

7. Edgewood-Colesburg (17)

8. Saint Ansgar (12)

9. West Hancock (6.5)

10. Wapsie Valley (4.5)

11. Grundy Center (2)

12. Newman Catholic (1)

Westwood (1)

Pekin (1)

15. Sioux Central (0.5)

8-Man 

1. Iowa Valley (36)

Northwood-Kensett (36)

3. Ar-We-Va (35)

4. Don Bosco (28)

5. Southeast Warren (19)

6. Central City (18)

7. New London (15)

8. Midland (11)

9. Fremont-Mills (10)

10. Newell-Fonda (6)

11. Exira-EHK (5)

12. Turkey Valley (1)