Thoughts on The Daytona 500

                        Wow what a wild, wacky Daytona 500. While many people mistook the Great American Race as a demolition derby, the exciting finish was a fitting end to such a unpredictable race. Many favorites like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick found themselves in one of the three "Big Ones", while lesser known teams and drivers such as Matt DiBenedetto, Brendan Gaughan and Cole Whitt all had serviceable finishes for their fledgling programs, but none of this should be the main storyline. That should belong to Kurt Busch and his path to redemption.

                         If you were to google Kurt Busch, you would know what I'm talking about. It seems as if the elder Busch has cleaned up his act. Ten years ago I would have been disgusted at seeing him hoist the Harley Earle Trophy, but when the Number 41 car edged Ryan Blaney to the checkered flag, I couldn't help but feel happy for him.

                        Kurt Busch is no longer just a defending champion who let his own demons force him out of rides with Jack Roush and Roger Penske. He is no longer the hotheaded young gun that many viewed as a punk. When people think of Kurt Busch hopefully they no longer think of his multiple suspensions; like in 2005 for Suspicion of OWI; 2012 for verbally threatening to assault a reporter or in 2015 when NASCAR suspended for three races after a bizarre domestic violence claim by his ex girlfriend.

                         Prior to Sunday, Kurt Busch had led 182 laps in his combined 15 Daytona 500 starts, there had been many races in which Busch probably had the best car, but couldn't get it done. Busch wasn't the best car on Sunday, he only led one lap, but it was the one that counted. One that Busch will never forget.

OTHER THOUGHTS

                         I) I personally like the stage format, it adds excitement to parts of the race that would usually be boring. It definitely changes strategy and it puts incentive in to being consistent. If you were to finish 10th in every segment from Atlanta up until the playoff race at Richmond. That would be 50 "playoff points". I look for it to definitely impact the playoffs

                       II) Calm down NASCAR fans, The high number of wrecks and low number cars that finished were not because of the new rules, They were because it's Daytona. The same thing happens at Talladega almost every year. I'd be willing to bet that everything will be just fine at Atlanta next week.

                 

                     III) I found both the Truck and Xfinity races to be exciting even if they were also full of crashes. That's what happens you get a bunch of young inexperienced drivers at Daytona. 

                    IV) How about the performances by the young guys?  Niether Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott had more than three Daytona 500's under their belt prior to yesterday, but all of them were oh so close to winning the whole enchilada. I think the future of NASCAR is in very good hands.

                    

                     V) Toyota struggled more than I thought they would. Guess we will see if that parlays in to the rest of the year, or maybe it was just Daytona. Only time will tell.

2017 NASCAR PREDICTIONS

What an offseason it was. Rookies moving up, a surprising retirement, a change in race format and a new series sponsor. Here is to hoping the actual racing on the track is just as compelling as the offseason was.

Here are my projections for the 2017 NASCAR Season.

RACE 1-DAYTONA 500

          Winner-Martin Truex. Jr.

Truex was just inches away from taking the Daytona 500 crown last year before Denny Hamlin nosed him at the line. Truex also appeared to be the championship favorite until his engine exploded at Talladega. While it is possible that Toyota could have some setbacks with the new car, the stable of drivers they have and the testing sessions they’ve been through says to me that it shouldn’t be an issue and Truex. Jr., a guy that everyone loves, will get to hoist the Harley Earl Trophy.

Race 2-FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500 @ ATLANTA

          Winner-Kevin Harvick

Harvick struggled a lot at Atlanta in his early years, but in his last six races there he has five finishes of 9^th or better and has led the most laps in each of the last three races, but just couldn’t quite get it done. This year, Harvick gets it done and punches his ticket into the chase.

Race 3-KOBALT 400 @ Las Vegas

          Winner-Brad Keselowski

Keselowski has ran very well at Vegas throughout his career (two wins in the last three season). This has to be one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks on the circuit. Brad gets his third win in four years.

Race 4-Good Sam 500 @ Phoenix

          Winner-Kevin Harvick (2)

This is another track that Harvick has ran exceptionally well at, in fact he’s dominated there (8 wins, 17 top tens in 28 starts). Harvick is to Phoenix what Jimmie Johnson is to Charlotte or Kyle Busch is to Bristol.

Race 5-Auto Club 400 @ Auto Club Speedway

            Winner-Joey Logano.

Penske Racing has had success at this track in the recent years, Logano has finished third, fourth and seven in three of his last four starts at ACS. If it weren’t for a last lap wreck between him and Denny Hamlin in 2013, he may have a win at Auto Club under his belt.

Race 6-STP 500 @ Martinsville

          Winner-Kyle Busch

Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson have dominated in recent memory at the paperclip, but Kyle Busch is no stranger to success at Martinsville and this track suits his driving style like a glove.

Race 7-O’Reilly’s Auto Parts 500 @ Texas

          Winner-Kyle Busch (2)

Kyle Busch has dominated the spring races early on in the season for the last couple years (except for the year he was injured). Gibbs cars have ran really well at Texas, Busch gets his second win of the season and consecutively.

Race 8-Food City 500 @ Bristol

          Winner-Matt Kenseth

I was torn between Kenseth, either of the Penske cars or Kyle Busch getting three in a row, but I feel as if Kenseth will be able to pick up his fifth win at Bristol.

Race 9-Toyota Owners 400 @ Richmond

            Winner-Denny Hamlin

This would be the fourth consecutive win for Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota’s fifth of the season, Hamlin’s second consecutive at Richmond and fourth of his career at his home track.

Race 10-GEICO 500 @ Talladega

          Winner-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

I am really going out on a limb with this one, but if Dale Jr. is to pick up a win in 2017, it almost has to come at a restrictor plate track. If Junior can pull it off, you can bet that it will certainly be a popular win and an emotional victory lane celebration.

Race 11-GoBowling.com 400 @ Kansas

          Winner-Kyle Busch (3)

Busch makes it two in a row at Kansas and gets win number three for himself on the year, number 5 for JGR and number 6 for Toyota. If you haven’t noticed, I think Toyota will transition just fine into the new car.

Race 12-Coca Cola 600 @ Charlotte

          Winner-Martin Truex, Jr. (2)

Truex has dominated this race the past two years. Losing it on fuel strategy in 2015 and leading all but six laps on his way to victory last year. Expect Truex to do the same this year, dominating Charlotte much like Jimmie Johnson did at one point.

Race 13-AAA Drive for Autism 400 @ Dover

          Winner-Jimmie Johnson

I almost put Kyle Larson here, but JJ has just been too darn dominant at Dover. Even though Jimmie hasn’t won at Dover since the Spring of 15’ here is his career stat line. 30 Starts, 10 wins, 15 top fives, 21 top tens and an average finish of 9.5.

Race 14-Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 @ Pocono

          Winner-Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson has not had a finish worse than 11^th in his six starts at Pocono. Larson would have won last year had the fog not rolled in last July. He should pick up his second career win there this June.

Race 15-Firekeepers Casino 400 @ Michigan

            Winner-Jimmie Johnson (2)

I almost penciled Chase Elliott to pick up his first career win at this track, but that would make 11 different winners in 15 races and I have a hard time believing that will happen. Hendrick cars always run real well at MIS and if not for some strange luck, JJ would have more than the one win that he currently has at MIS.

Race 16-Toyota SaveMart 350 @ Sonoma

          Winner-Denny Hamlin (2)

I toggled with throwing in a wildcard like A.J Allmendinger or Jamie McMurray, but people don’t realize how good of a road course racer Denny Hamlin turned himself into last year racking up a win and a runner up finish. Was it a fluke? Maybe, but I think Hamlin can at the least avenge his last lap loss to Tony Stewart.

Race 17-Coke Zero 400 @ Daytona

          Winner-Joey Logano (2)

Daytona has been dominated by Penske and JGR. Logano has yet to win the July Daytona race, but I think he will do so this year, possibly with the help of teammate Brad Keselowski.

Race 18-Quaker State 400 @ Kentucky

          Winner-Kyle Busch (4)

Kyle Busch has dominated at Kentucky since it hit the premier series schedule in 2011. Here is Busch’s stat line in his six starts in the Bluegrass state-2 wins, 4 top fives, 5 top tens and an average finish of 5.2

Race 19-New Hampshire 301

            Winner-Kevin Harvick (3)

Lots of guys have ran really well at New Hampshire (Hamlin, Harvick, Keselowski, Kahne, etc..) and nine active drivers have two or more wins at this track so this one is one of the toughest to predict. I’m gonna take Harvick to pick up his first win in 15 races.

Race 20-Brickyard 400 @ Indy

          Winner-Kyle Busch (5)

Kyle Busch has just been too damn dominant at Indy. His past three finishes at Indy have been two wins and a second. Since 2010, Busch has finished no worse than 10^th.

Race 21-Pennsylvania 400 @ Pocono

          Winner-Martin Truex, Jr. (3)

Since winning there in 2015, Truex has struggled in his last three races at The Tricky Triangle. In his last three races, he’s finished 19^th twice and last year was caught up in an accident last summer that relegated him to a 38^th place finish. I think Truex can exercise some demons here this year.

Race 22-Watkins Glen 355

          Winner-AJ Allmendinger

I think Allmendinger is able to use his road course expertise to get his second career win and punch his ticket into the chase. Watkins Glen is always such a wild card race, I contemplated picking Jamie McMurray or Clint Bowyer, but I like Allmendinger.

Race 23-Pure Michigan 400

          Winner-Chase Elliott

This would be the 12^th different winner in 2017, which sounds about right. Elliott has ran really well at Michigan and was very close to getting his first win there last year.

Race 24-Bass Pro Shops 500 @ Bristol

          Winner-Brad Keselowski (2)

This would snap a 21 race winless skid for Keselowski. Keselowski has enjoyed a lot of success in Bristol (2 wins) but had an average finish of 25^th last year.

Race 25-Southern 500 @ Darlington

          Winner-Denny Hamlin (3)

This is one of Hamlin’s favorite tracks on the circuit. Despite only having one win (2010), Hamlin has had an average finish of 6.3 and has only finished outside the top 10.

Race 26-Federated Auto Parts 400 @ Richmond

          Winner-Joey Logano (3)

Logano finishes the 2017 Regular Season with his third win of the year, fifth for Penske. In his last 8 starts at Richmond, Logano has finished in the top eight in six of those.

Playoff Field-Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex. Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, Dale Earnhardt. Jr, Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, Matt Kenseth, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, Austin Dillon

ROUND OF 16

Race 1-Chicagoland 400

Winner-Brad Keselowski (3)

Keselowski has always ran really well in the opening rounds of the playoffs, including a trip to victory lane at Chicagoland. I think Keselowski punches his ticket into the Round of 12.

Race 2-New England 300 @ New Hampshire

          Winner-Denny Hamlin (4)

Hamlin has also had lots of success in the early phases of the playoffs, and at New Hampshire in particular.

Race 3- Delaware 400 @ Dover

          Winner-Joey Logano (4)

Logano has yet to pick up a win at Dover, but has three third place finishes. Penske always runs really well at this track.

Advances to Round of 12-Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Jr, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones

Eliminated-Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, AJ Allmendinger, Dale Earnhardt. Jr

ROUND OF 12

Race 1-Bank of America 500 @ Charlotte

          Winner-Martin Truex, Jr. (4)

Truex completes the season sweep at Charlotte, picks up his fourth win of the season and advances to the Round of 8 all in one race.

Race 2-Alabama 500 @ Talladega

          Winner-Joey Logano (5)

Logano, like Truex Jr. did at Charlotte, sweeps the season at Talladega gets his third in a row and fourth overall at Talladega/ Penske has ran really well at Talladega with four wins there since 2014.

Race 3-Hollywood Casino 400 @ Kansas

          Winner-Matt Kenseth (2)

Kenseth snaps a long winless skid and advances into the Round of 8. Wouldn’t it be cool to see him and Joey Logano battle it out at Kansas and neither of them wreck the other?

Advances to Round of 8-Martin Truex. Jr, Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson

Eliminated-Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon and Chase Elliott

                                                ROUND OF 8

Race 1-Goody’s Fast Relief 500 @ Martinsville

          Winner-Denny Hamlin (5)

The Virginia native picks up his fifth win of the year at Martinsville and punches his ticket into the Championship 4.

Race 2-AAA Texas 500

          Winner-Kevin Harvick (4)

Is it really a Championship 4 if Kevin Harvick isn’t in it? I’m also certain that Harvick will find a way to punch his ticket into Homestead.

Race 3-Can Am 500 @ Phoenix

          Winner-Kevin Harvick (5)

Harvick gives himself some from momentum heading into the Championship 4, however the main race here is going to be the race to see who makes the cut for Homestead and those are….

Advances to Championship 4-Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Martin Truex, Jr.

Eliminated-Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth

                                      CHAMPIONSHIP 4

FORD 400 @ Homestead

          Winner-Denny Hamlin (6)

Hamlin finally captures his championship. After many years of not getting the breaks to go his way, Hamlin caps off an impressive year with a championship!